Winter woes: Delhi headed for air pollution disaster
 

Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) warns of smoggy, choking winter in Delhi
City at risk of losing the air quality gains from its past action because of rising vehicle numbers and its love for diesel as the fuel of choice. But evidence indicts diesel fumes as harbingers of cancer and other deadly ailments

New Delhi, November 14, 2006: With the mercury dipping, the air in Delhi has begun to get heavy with dust, smoke and particles. Calm and cool weather is blocking the dispersal of smoke and pollutants. Low-hanging shroud impairs visibility, chokes lungs. A new assessment by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) of the trends in the peak pollution levels during winter months since 1998 has revealed that pollution in winter -- despite a climb-down until 2003 -- has begun to rise once again. The two months of September and October during 2006 show rapid build-up of pollution. This winter is a reminder of the growing pollution crisis, and our inability to put into action the real solutions (see graph).

Sustaining the pollution control efforts for further reduction in pollution levels is turning out to be an enormous challenge due to the explosive increase in vehicle numbers in Delhi. Over the last 10 years, the total personal vehicle registration has recorded a staggering increase of 105 per cent. In the same period, cars alone have increased by 157 per cent -- an effect of excess indulgence in personal mobility.

It is shocking to note that diesel cars during the same period have increased by 425 per cent. The share of diesel cars, a mere 4 per cent of the total new car registration in 1999, has climbed to nearly 20 per cent in 2006. While petrol cars have increased at 8.5 per cent annually, diesel cars have maintained a growth rate of 16.6 per annum. This overwhelming growth can be devastating in a city desperate for solutions to smoke, particles and NOx.

So what if Delhi has phased out 12,000 diesel buses to escape from the lethal effect of toxic diesel particles -- even at a very conservative estimate, the 118,631 diesel cars on the city’s roads is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses! While public transport buses, three-wheelers and most taxis in Delhi have been effectively kept away from dirty diesel, it is the personal car segment which is riding high on the cheap and toxic fuel. Diesel is making a comeback through personal transport and is threatening to nullify the impact of the CNG programme.

Officials warn that the number of bigger jeeps or SUVs, taken separately, could be much higher due to their daily influx from the surrounding satellite towns. A large number of these vehicles come to Delhi and leave the city during peak hours. Diesel cars and SUVs not only emit several times more particulates, but are also allowed to emit three times more NOx compared to a petrol car. Even the assessment of trends in fuel consumption in the city confirms that the total diesel fuel consumption that was lowered with the ascendancy of CNG in the beginning of this decade has begun to increase again.

This is very disturbing because deadly facts about diesel toxicity and evidence of the acute cancer-causing potential of diesel pollutants are pouring in from around the world. Diesel fumes have been found to bear a lot more particles and NOx than petrol exhaust and are several times more toxic. Clean diesel solutions are still not available in India.

Significant steps were taken in the last few years to combat air pollution in Delhi. These include the implementation of one of the largest ever CNG programme in the world, implementation of Euro II and III standards, lowering of fuel sulphur to 500 ppm and subsequently to 350 ppm, lowering of benzene to 1 per cent and capping of the age of the commercial vehicles at 15 years. These first generation measures had targeted to lower the deadly particulate pollution especially particulates from the poor quality diesel in the city. These mitigation efforts helped to stabilise particulates and substantially lower SO2 and CO. Substantial air quality gains were made possible with aggressive measures.

But new challenges have begun to surface that requires consistent, sustained and aggressive action. The particulate levels, despite stabilisation, are still very high. NOx levels record steady rise in Delhi. If not tracked immediately, this can sabotage one of the largest clean air programmes in the world.

Delhi will have to control the sheer numbers of cars and two-wheelers that are overpowering any attempts at change. Cars and two-wheelers take up nearly 90 per cent of the road space, meet less than 20 per cent of the travel demand and pollute excessively. The current efforts to augment the public transport buses and building of high capacity bus systems and the metro must gather momentum. The scale and the speed of this transition are critical to lower the numbers of cars and pollution in the city.

Earlier studies such as those conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences have shown that hospital admissions due to respiratory and cardiac symptoms increase manifold during the winter months in Delhi. CSE, therefore, warns that Delhi will require pollution emergency measures this winter to avoid a public health disaster:

• Initiate stringent on road checks for smoky vehicles. Harsh penalty should be imposed if vehicles are seen with visible smoke.
• Supportive measures are needed to intensify use of public transport this winter. Already, buses meet as much as 61 per cent of the travel demand in Delhi. Services of both metro and the existing bus system should be intensified to encourage maximum usage.
• Intensify dedicated bus and railway services between Delhi and the surrounding satellite towns to discourage commuting in cars.
• Encourage alternative-fuelled cars and discourage polluting cars, particularly on very high pollution days or in high pollution zones to be identified from the CPCB’s air pollution data.