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Dear readers,
Welcome to the Climate Weekly newsletter by the Centre for Science and Environment’s Climate Change programme and Down to Earth.
A new study published in the journal One Earth has warned that Bangladesh is likely to witness a 10-fold increase in destructive storm tides due to climate change, reports DTE’s Rohini Krishnamurthy. A storm tide refers to high water levels caused by a combination of a normal astronomical tide and a storm surge (which is an abnormal rise in sea level due to a cyclone or storm)—leading to coastal flooding. Destructive storm tides, which occurred once every 100 years, are now likely to become more frequent, hitting Bangladesh once every decade. In the past, six tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have each killed more than 140,000 people. However, there is a lack of accurate storm tide risk assessment under future climatic conditions, which will hinder the country’s ability to adapt and build resilient infrastructure.
In India, the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) estimates above normal rainfall during the south west monsoon season (June-September) in 2025. According to the IMD’s estimates, the south west monsoon season will likely yield 105 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall for India from June to September 2025, which stands at 87 centimetres for the period 1971-2020. Furthermore, the forecast probability of above normal rainfall (105 to 110 per cent of LPA) is 33 per cent while the forecast probability of excess rainfall (greater than 110 per cent of LPA) is 26 per cent.
Over recent years, the Northeast region of India has seen a long-term drying trend while the Thar desert has been greening because of excess rainfall, a pattern attributed to climate change. The IMD predicts this trend to continue, with Ladakh, Tamil Nadu and parts of Bihar also likely to witness a lower-than-average rainfall. The regions with the highest chance of receiving higher-than-average rainfall are southern Chhattisgarh, northern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, parts of Maharashtra and southern Odisha.
Finally, a study by the National Load Dispatch Centre (NLDC) has predicted that India’s electricity demand will peak at 273 gigawatts (GW) in June 2025, up from 250 GW in 2024. This translates to an unmet demand of about 15-20 GW. The study highlights that energy shortages are most likely during May and June this year—with the 31 per cent probability that the electricity grid is unable to meet the demand in May 2025. Watch this video to find out more.
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By - Upamanyu Das
Climate Change, CSE
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Tanzania records hottest year ever in 2024 amid surging nighttime temperatures, 16 April 2025
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Bangladesh could face a new reality with climate change. Storm tides are likely to increase 10-fold: Study, 12 April 2025
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