COP 28—what to expect as UNFCCC annual climate meet enters final lap
As negotiations at COP 28 at Dubai enter the final lap, the fact of the matter is that “nothing major” has emerged, so far, from the UNFCCC annual meet and “nothing much major really” can be expected, as per observers. Though the summit began on a positive note with countries agreeing to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund in the opening plenary, the controversy regarding a “leaked” letter by OPEC asking members to “reject any language on fossil fuels”, set the narrative. According to reports, countries, or parties as they are called, continue to be at loggerheads over the critical issue regarding the phase-out of fossil fuels, thereby putting a question mark over whether any commitment was possible at all through global warming talks. Apparently, several countries felt that the conference should focus only on reducing climate pollution and not target fossil fuels while many others, including the European Union and climate-vulnerable nations, want COP28 to end with a clear deal on the end of fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel phase-out, how feasible Is the issue regarding phasing out fossil fuels so simple? Observers say putting the blame for global failure to curb fossil fuel use on developing countries like India and China is “unfair and simplistic”. According to noted environmentalist Sunita Narain, the fossil fuels issue is “as intrinsic as it is controversial” and making coal the “whipping boy” is not the answer. “It is time we discussed the science behind the phase-out of fossil fuels; by when and which fuel. Then the logical question would be which fuels the world will get to use and who gets to use the remaining quota of oil, gas or coal that the world has time to burn,” she adds. According to Narain, for too long, the western discourse has been “simplistic, phase out fossil fuels and then, almost as if it is synonymous, phase out coal. This discourse has gone nowhere. The fact is that the production and use of fossil fuel is increasing, and not just in our world.” The fact is the US is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, beating Qatar, “producing more oil per day than ever seen in history, 13.5 million barrels a day”, she says. “But it is easy to paper over this fact when coal becomes the whipping boy. There is no question that coal is bad; but it is also the fuel used in the world that has not yet moved to somewhat cleaner gas. Targeting coal means shifting the burden of the transition to countries that cannot afford even dirty energy to meet the needs of their people,” Narain asserts. Loss and Damage Finance Facility Notably, the biggest headline from COP27 last year was the much-anticipated agreement to set up a Loss and Damage Finance Facility (LDFF) meant for supporting developing countries, primarily the least developed ones, impacted by climate change, in time to launch at COP28. Narain says the world has come together to agree on LDFF and even put money into it but funds are still nowhere near the amounts needed to pay for damages that climate change is bringing to the poorest in the world. “It is also another matter that the rules of this fund must come without new conditions and not push the already vulnerable further into debt or development that makes no sense,” she adds. The money promised so far by developed nations – about $700 million – represents a small fraction of what is needed every year. The nature and the timing of the pledged amount remains uncertain and there are fears that a major chunk of the finances will come as loans, adding to the burdens of the already hard-hit. The corporate angle and the ‘leaked letter’ Amid the ensuing debate around fossil fuels and renewables in the text, observers say non-state entities like corporates, regions and institutions will play a role in whatever eventuates. The “leaked letter” by the Secretary General of the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries asking members to scuttle any deal/reject any language on fossil fuels elimination use created much tension in negotiating rooms. The letter from Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais to all 13 OPEC members and some other fossil-fuel-dependent economies asked them to reject any formulation that is focused on fossil fuels instead of the emissions that it leads to. It is a line that has been taken by Saudi Arabia, the most influential member of OPEC, at the COP28 negotiations on fossil fuels, as per the reports. COPs are convened under the UNFCCC—a multilateral treaty adopted in 1992. India India’s stance, including on climate finance and mitigation, is well documented. India’s long-term goal is to move towards a system that doesn’t lead to irreversible damage to the environment. At the same time, its growth story also has to be protected in mind the fundamentals of the common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR). India believes that not all countries can be held responsible for the state of climate in the world today; therefore, action, including on the controversial issue of fossil fuels, has to be taken on the basis of individual national responsibilities and capabilities.