• Down To Earth

Disrupted monsoons force India to face climate threat

The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that extreme weather affected India on 331 of 334 monitored days in 2025, or 99% of the period assessed. More than 4,000 people died, about 3,000 during the monsoon, while at least 30 states and union territories experienced extreme weather simultaneously for eight consecutive months. Sunita Narain, director general of the CSE, argues that adaptation therefore needs to become part of the country’s development strategy. “Climate change is no longer a future threat. It is already here in the form of extreme heat, extreme rainfall and increasingly destructive weather events,” Narain told DW.

• Down To Earth

India Faces Intensifying Climate Threat as Monsoon Patterns Shift

The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found extreme weather affected India on 99% of monitored days in 2025, resulting in over 4,000 deaths. Kathmandu— India's traditional southwest monsoon, a vital source of annual rainfall typically arriving in June and receding by September, is becoming increasingly unpredictable. While the overall amount of rain hasn’t drastically changed, its distribution has shifted to longer dry spells punctuated by short bursts of intense precipitation, overwhelming infrastructure and causing widespread disruption since late July with over 100 deaths reported nationwide. States like Assam, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar, and Jharkhand have been particularly affected, prompting scientists to examine whether the monsoon is entering a new era of instability driven by climate change. Changing Rainfall Patterns The core issue isn’t necessarily a decrease or increase in total rainfall, but rather how it arrives. Scientists are observing longer periods without rain followed by intense downpours that exceed the capacity of rivers, drainage systems, and hillsides to cope. El Niño is contributing to this year's variability, however experts believe long-term changes are driven by a changing climate. Shifting Monsoon Characteristics While average seasonal rainfall remains relatively stable, the timing, intensity, and distribution of monsoon rains are demonstrably different. Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a climate scientist and former secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, believes these changes represent “a structural shift” in the monsoon system, characterized by increased short-duration extreme rainfall events and prolonged dry spells. Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist, cautions against labeling it a fundamentally different regime but acknowledges that the intensity of both active and break periods is increasing due to a warmer atmosphere’s ability to hold more moisture. Infrastructure Ill-Prepared for Extremes India's existing infrastructure is struggling to adapt to these new patterns. Drainage systems and flood management strategies are often based on historical rainfall averages, failing to account for the short, high-impact events that now cause the most damage. Deoras emphasizes that improved forecasting is only effective if authorities translate warnings into “timely, impact-based decisions,” such as adjusting school schedules or restricting travel in vulnerable areas. Rapid urbanization and construction further exacerbate the problem by reducing land available for water absorption. Systemic Failures in Climate Proofing Experts point to a broader failure to integrate climate change considerations into India’s planning processes. Ritwick Dutta, an environmental lawyer, notes that the country's environmental clearance system doesn’t systematically factor in climate risks, leading to projects proceeding without adequate safeguards. He cites Pune as an example, where projected rainfall increases haven’t been adequately incorporated into city planning and riverfront development. The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found extreme weather affected India on 99% of monitored days in 2025, resulting in over 4,000 deaths. Need for Adaptation and Future Planning Sunita Narain, director general of the CSE, argues that adaptation must become central to India’s development strategy. “Climate change is no longer a future threat,” she said. “The challenge is no longer proving the science, but redesigning our economy and infrastructure to survive it.” Rajeevan emphasizes the need for sector-specific adaptation strategies, including improved flood management in cities, changes in agricultural practices, stronger water storage systems, and infrastructure designed for extreme rainfall events. India faces a critical juncture where proactive planning and investment in climate-resilient infrastructure are essential to mitigate the growing risks posed by increasingly erratic monsoon patterns. The country must move beyond reactive disaster response towards a long-term strategy that anticipates and prepares for a future of more intense and unpredictable weather.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

400+ Indian cities have zero urban transport buses, says new CSE-CITIES Forum study

India faces a massive gap in its urban bus transport systems. The urban population is projected to surge from 490 million in FY2026 to 763 million by FY2047, adding 270 million city dwellers. Compared to this, the current bus availability falls dangerously shortaqe: there is a 70 per cent deficit in urban transit, says a new study conducted jointly by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and CITIES Forum, a global technical firm. Over 400 Indian cities do not have any urban transport buses. To eliminate bus service backlogs, the country’s bus fleet must expand 10-fold from the current 65,000 to 6.71 lakh buses by 2047; it must also replace high-polluting diesel fleets and achieve zero-emission targets. This, along with depot, grid and charging infrastructure, demands a cumulative investment of Rs 14.20 lakh crore (~US $165 billion) over two decades, says the study. The new study — The Economics of Bus Transformations: A Roadmap for Viksit Bharat 2047 — examines sector deficits and lays out the strategic expansion required to serve a growing urban population, fulfil Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs’ (MoHUA) service-level benchmarks, and build physical and electrical infrastructure. “Transforming bus transit is a critical imperative for clean air, energy security and climate action under Viksit Bharat 2047,” says Anumita Roychowdhury, Executive Director of Research and Advocacy at CSE. “Buses are the prime movers of this transition, capable of taking 40 to 50 private cars off the roads per bus to secure a 70-75 per cent public transport share”, she said. “This study seeks launching of a Bus Mission and offers a comprehensive roadmap to deploy fiscal instruments and shift toward results-based financing that guarantees verifiable, high-quality service and full fleet electrification for every city with over 500,000 residents,” she added. To quantify investment requirements, the study used a quantitative demand model covering all 35 states and Union territories of India. Drawing on Vahan registrations, CIRT STU statistics and UN projections and MoHUA benchmarks. Key findings Severe shortfalls, aging fleets and economic distress: Out of 14.5 lakh registered buses nation-wide and 2.9 lakh State Transport Undertaking (STU) stage-carriage buses, only about 65,000 operate as organised urban city buses. This provides just 13.3 to 13.8 buses per lakh urban population — a 70 per cent shortfall against the government benchmark of 44 per lakh. Consequently, over 400 cities with populations between 100,000 and 1,000,000 completely lack an organised bus transit system. Severe geographical disparities exist, as five states — Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka — concentrate 55 per cent of the active national fleet. Compounding the shortage, 40,000 urban buses in service are overaged (past their 15-year statutory life), burning 20-30 per cent more fuel and incurring maintenance costs of Rs 15 to Rs 20 per kilometer. Nationwide, an unprecedented 5.8 lakh buses across all categories will reach end-of-life between FY2026 and FY2030. Deep financial distress persists within STUs, where accumulated losses frequently surpass annual operating revenues due to inefficient cost-recovery structures. Upscale bus procurement: To meet the Viksit Bharat scenario, India must scale its average urban bus procurement rate 17-fold, rising sharply from ~2,500 buses annually to an average of 41,500 per year across three strategic waves including the Catch-Up phase (FY2027-31) requiring 44,000 to 50,000 buses annually to clear backlogs; the Stabilisation phase (FY2032-41) stabilising at 9,000 to 36,000 buses annually to absorb population growth; and the Replacement phase (FY2042-46) peaking at 71,000 to 78,000 buses annually as the initial catch-up fleet hits its 15-year statutory retirement limit. Expanding capacity: Meeting peak demand (~78,000 buses/year) requires expanding India’s bus manufacturing ecosystem which is an opportunity to build the bus industry. Although the top five OEMs nominally possess an annual electric bus capacity of ~40,500 units, current EV manufacturing operates at under 10 per cent utilisation. Scaling up necessitates capital investments in body-building, supply chain localisation and quality assurance. Upscaled electrification: Reaching a 100 per cent EV share in new procurements by FY2039-40 culminates in 6.04 lakh electric urban buses in service by 2047. Powering this zero-emission fleet requires 121 GWh of active battery capacity and an annual electricity demand of ~37,000 MU — a fully manageable 1.8 per cent of India’s total 2024 power generation. What will it cost? The cost of transition is projected for three growth scenarios. The conservative scenario reaches 44 buses per lakh population by 2047, maintaining a 3.36-lakh bus fleet via 4.2 lakh procurements at a CapEx of Rs 6.55 lakh crore. The accelerated scenario meets MoHUA benchmarks by 2030 and lifts provision to 60 buses per lakh by 2040, operating 4.58 lakh buses via 6.8 lakh procurements at Rs 10.55 lakh crore. The recommended target scenario matches global standards of 88 buses per lakh by 2047, expanding the operational fleet to 6.71 lakh buses (90 per cent electric), and 9.1 lakh procurements, requiring a total CapEx of Rs 14.20 lakh crore. Financial requirements and architecture: Meeting the Rs 14.20 lakh crore requirement exceeds the capacity of piecemeal schemes like FAME or PM e-Bus Sewa. With expected central funding covering ~30 per cent of capital costs, a 70 per cent funding gap (~Rs 9.9 lakh crore) must be mobilised from state budgets, private equity under Gross Cost Contracts (GCC), commercial banks, green bonds and multilateral banks. The study advocates launching a National Urban Bus Mission (NUBM) anchored by a National Urban Bus Electrification Fund (NUBEF), a committed corpus jointly funded by the Centre, states and multilateral institutions. NUBEF will provide first-loss guarantees, concessional debt at 4-5 per cent, and credit enhancement. This will be reinforced by Green Bus Bonds, targeted Viability Gap Funding (VGF), and Results-Based Financing linked to verified outcomes. Reforms to transform: Finance must follow reforms to transform loss-making entities into investment-grade operations. Achieving bankability requires establishing independent fare authorities with automatic fare-revision mechanisms indexed to inflation and fuel/power costs while keeping the fares affordable; standardising GCC for deployments exceeding 100 buses to transfer demand risk to public authorities while holding operators to service-level performance; executing financial restructuring for stressed STUs to achieve investment-grade ratings by FY2030; and strengthening governance through Unified Metropolitan Transport Authorities (UMTAs) and statutory City Mobility Plans. This will also require private bus sector integration. The next five years will decide the next 15, as running the upcoming fleet retirement wave in mission mode represents the fastest route to a world-class, zero-emission urban bus system for Viksit Bharat 2047.

• Director General Office

Opinion | Fix The Problem, Not The Blame: Hospitality Industry's Message To Regulatory Raiders

Agarwal said he has always had great faith in the industry's capacity for self-policing. During his tenure as CEO, a similar controversy had been stoked by the noted green activist and Executive Director of the Centre for Science and Environment, Sunita Narain, about the presence of potassium bromate, which was then banned in many countries, in the bread we eat. Instead of raiding bread makers, Agarwal held talks with them, declared his intention to get the relevant rules amended, and gave them time to figure out how to produce bread without the harmful chemical. The slew of regulatory raids on the kitchens and back areas of legacy hotels and restaurants in Mumbai and Bengaluru has set off parallel waves of disappointment, uncertainty and introspection in the hospitality industry across the country. The mixed sentiment was conveyed to the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) CEO, Rajit Punhani, in New Delhi on Monday by a cross-industry delegation led by the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI). The same mixed bag of emotions was shared by industry leaders in conversations with NDTV.com. The common refrain was that the raids were a wake-up call for the industry. Industry leaders, however, questioned the selective targeting of legacy brands and the Maharashtra FDA's decision to peremptorily shut down businesses instead of serving them with improvement notices (an action subsequently struck down by local courts). Responding to the headline-grabbing wave of actions, former FSSAI CEO Pawan Agarwal said that regulators need to strike a balance between deterrence, which creates fear in the short term, and capacity building, which prepares hotels and restaurants to get their back of the house in order. Agarwal said he has always had great faith in the industry's capacity for self-policing. During his tenure as CEO, a similar controversy had been stoked by the noted green activist and Executive Director of the Centre for Science and Environment, Sunita Narain, about the presence of potassium bromate, which was then banned in many countries, in the bread we eat. Instead of raiding bread makers, Agarwal held talks with them, declared his intention to get the relevant rules amended, and gave them time to figure out how to produce bread without the harmful chemical. The industry listened, the rules were changed, and no penal action was taken against anyone. Gauri Devidayal, founder and co-owner of The Table, Mumbai, which was named India's Best European Restaurant at NDTV Food Awards 2026, amplified Agarwal's point by noting that regulatory authorities must conduct annual health and sanitary checks at the time of the annual licence renewals. She was also in favour of the system of annual ratings of restaurants and hotels by regulatory authorities, which is in place in many countries. These steps, according to Devidayal, create a durable culture of voluntary compliance, instead of short-term fear resulting from sensational actions. Or, as Agarwal put it, "Punitive actions only lead to fear and raids only make headlines." NRAI Trustee Anurag Katriar's advice to regulatory agencies is to "fix the problem rather than the blame". He pointed out that no restaurant or hotel would ever want to harm its clientele in any way. "We have a greater stake than any regulatory agency in the well-being of our customers," Katriar emphasised.

• Solid Waste Management and Circular Economy

FSSAI bans plastic packaging for pan masala. Paper, cardboard, tin containers allowed

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India on 7 August issued a notification with norms for plastic-free packaging for pan masala sachets. The notification said that paper, cardboard, or cellulose packaging for pan masala must be free of any kind of plastic or aluminium. The notification means that no kind of plastic, including polyethene, polyester, PVC, or even plastic lamination, can be used for packaging pan masala, which is a mixture of areca nut and other spices used for recreational consumption. According to a 2025 market report by IMARC Group, the pan masala industry has a market share of Rs 48,000 crore. The FSSAI has amended the Food Safety and Standards (Packaging) Regulations, 2018, and laid out a list of allowed packaging materials for pan masala. It includes paper, cardboard, cellulose, or other naturally derived materials, as well as tin or glass containers. Addressing plastic waste at the source The new guidelines align with the existing Plastic Waste Management Rules of 2016, which imposed a ban on plastic packaging for selling or storing gutkha, pan masala, and tobacco. The FSSAI also said in its notification that the relevant provisions from the Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016, will be applicable. A new study released by the Centre for Science and Environment said that India produces 1,58,619 tonnes of solid waste every day, of which 10-12 per cent is plastic waste. It has a short shelf life but remains longer in the environment as well as the waste stream. “The actual cost of managing plastic waste varies significantly across cities and plastic categories,” said Tribhuvan Singh Bisht, deputy programme manager, municipal solid waste, CSE, in a press release. The ban strengthens plastic waste management by addressing the source at the packaging level. Moreover, by explicitly prohibiting plastic layers or lamination, the FSSAI has recognised that many pan masala packets and sachets utilise plastic in different forms and percentages, calling for complete plastic-free packaging.

• Solid Waste Management and Circular Economy

Plastic Waste EPR Rules Face Funding Gap: Why FMCG Stocks May Feel Impact

A new Centre for Science and Environment study reveals that the current Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system for plastic waste fails to cover actual municipal costs. This funding shortfall may force regulators to tighten rules, potentially increasing operational expenses for FMCG and plastic packaging companies that rely on these certificates for compliance. A recent study by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), released on August 11, 2026, has highlighted a critical gap in India’s plastic waste management framework. The report indicates that the current Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system—which requires Producers, Importers, and Brand Owners (PIBOs) to fund the recycling of their packaging waste—is failing to cover the actual costs incurred by local municipalities. This finding is significant for the Indian equity market, as it suggests a looming risk of regulatory tightening that could affect the margins of major FMCG and packaging companies. The Funding Mismatch The EPR framework operates on the 'polluter-pays' principle, designed to ensure that companies manufacturing or selling packaged goods pay for the collection and processing of plastic waste. However, the CSE study found that the market-linked price of EPR certificates—which companies buy to prove their compliance—is consistently lower than the actual cost of managing and recycling plastic waste. In many cases, the current EPR credit rates cover as little as 13% to 14% of the operational expenses required for waste collection and segregation in specific municipalities. Because these credits are cheap, companies are meeting their regulatory obligations at a fraction of the real cost, leaving municipal bodies to bear the rest of the financial burden. Impact on Industry Margins For investors, this study serves as a warning of potential future cost inflation for companies with significant plastic packaging footprints, such as major FMCG firms, beverage manufacturers, and plastic packaging producers. If the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and other regulatory bodies respond to these findings by fixing the price floors for EPR certificates or mandating geographically adjusted rates, companies may see an increase in compliance-related spending. Currently, the market for EPR certificates prioritizes the lowest possible cost, which has incentivized a system that does not reflect the logistical and infrastructural challenges of waste management across different Indian cities. The CSE report has proposed a Weighted Adjustment Factor (WAF), which would force companies to pay rates that better reflect the true local cost of managing waste. Regulatory and Operational Risks Beyond the potential for higher costs, the study highlights the risk of regulatory intervention. The government has set ambitious targets for plastic packaging recycling, and if the current funding gap leads to a failure in meeting these targets, regulators may implement stricter penalties or more rigid compliance structures. Investors may monitor the CPCB's response to these findings. Any shift toward localized EPR obligations—where companies must purchase certificates specifically for the regions where they sell products—would eliminate the ability to use low-cost certificates from other parts of the country. This would likely lead to a rise in the cost of compliance for firms that rely on the current, cheaper certificate trading mechanism. The next key update to watch will be whether the government adopts the proposed adjustments in the EPR certificate pricing formula, which would directly influence the operational expenditure for listed FMCG and plastic packaging companies.

• Down To Earth

Disrupted monsoons force India to face climate threat

The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that extreme weather affected India on 331 of 334 monitored days in 2025, or 99% of the period assessed. More than 4,000 people died, about 3,000 during the monsoon, while at least 30 states and union territories experienced extreme weather simultaneously for eight consecutive months. Sunita Narain, director general of the CSE, argues that adaptation therefore needs to become part of the country’s development strategy. “Climate change is no longer a future threat. It is already here in the form of extreme heat, extreme rainfall and increasingly destructive weather events,” Narain told DW. “The challenge is no longer proving the science, but redesigning our economy and infrastructure to survive it,” she added. “Cities, roads, drainage systems and water infrastructure can no longer be designed for yesterday’s climate.”

• Down To Earth

मानसून का बदलता पैटर्न बढ़ा रहा भारत का जलवायु संकट

सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट की एक रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, 2025 में जिन 334 दिनों पर नजर रखी गई, उनमें से 331 दिन यानी करीब 99 फीसदी दिनों में भारत के किसी ना किसी हिस्से में चरम मौसम की घटनाएं देखने को मिलीं. इसमें 4,000 से भी ज्यादा लोगों की जान गई, जिसमें करीब 3,000 मौतें मानसून के दौरान हुईं. लगभग 30 राज्यों और केंद्र शासित प्रदेशों में लगातार आठ महीनों तक चरम मौसमी घटनाएं दर्ज की गई. इस संस्था की डायरेक्टर जनरल सुनीता नारायण का कहना है कि अब जलवायु परिवर्तन को देश की विकास रणनीति का अहम हिस्सा बनाना होगा. उन्होंने डीडब्ल्यू से कहा, "जलवायु परिवर्तन अब भविष्य की बात नहीं है. भीषण गर्मी, तेज बारिश और विनाशकारी मौसमी घटनाओं के रूप में यह अब हमारे सामने खड़ा है.” उन्होंने आगे कहा, "अब चुनौती जलवायु परिवर्तन को साबित करना नहीं है, बल्कि असली चुनौती अपनी अर्थव्यवस्था और बुनियादी ढांचे को इस तरह बदलना है कि हम इसके असर का सामना कर सकें.”

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

देश में सार्वजनिक बस सेवा में 70% की कमी, 400 से ज्यादा शहरों में सुविधा ही नहीं

देश का शहरी बस क्षेत्र गंभीर संकट के दौर से गुजर रहा है। पूरे देश के स्तर पर शहरी आबादी की जरूरतों की तुलना में सार्वजनिक बस सेवाओं में 70% भारी कमी है। सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरमेंट और सीआईटीआईईएस फोरम की ताजा रिपोर्ट में खुलासा हुआ है। रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, 400+ शहरों में संगठित सरकारी बस सेवा उपलब्ध नहीं है। 13.3 बसे हीं प्रति लाख आबादी उपलब्ध हैं, जबकि केंद्रीय मंत्रालय का तय मानक 44 से 66 बसों का है। एक लाख आबादी वाले क्षेत्रों के लोग अनौपचारिक साधनों पर निर्भर 55% सक्रिय शहरी बसें केवल आबादी वाले पांच राज्यों, जिनमें मध्य प्रदेश, क्षेत्रों के लोग पूरी पश्चिम बंगाल, उत्तर प्रदेश तरह अनौपचारिक महाराष्ट्र और कर्नाटक तक सीमित हैं। वहीं एक लाख आबादी वाले क्षेत्रों के लोग पूरी तरह अनौपचारिक साधनों पर निर्भर हैं। प्रदूषण भी बढ़ा रहीं पुरानी बसें 40 हजार बसें 15 साल की सीमा पार कर चुकी हैं, जो प्रदूषण फैला रही हैं और रखरखाव में महंगी साबित हो रही हैं। 5.8 लाख बसे 2026 से 2030 के बीच में सेवा अवधि पूरी कर रिटायर होंगी, जिससे नए बस बेड़े की जरूरत बढ़ेगी। क्या होगी चुनौती? 18-36 महीने: ई-बसों के ग्रिड कनेक्शन में देरी, डिपो प्रभावित । 65% लागत वसूलीः परिवहन उपक्रम वित्तीय संकट में। 6.8 कर्मचारी / बसः कुशल मानक 4.5 से ज्यादा, लागत बढ़ा रहा है।

• DTE - Web

India’s Forest Crisis: 215K Hectares Approved, 62% Actually Cleared

India Approves Clearing 215,000 Hectares of Forest—But 62% Gets Cleared Approved Diversion vs. Actual Clearing: A Decade of Forest-Loss Slippage India’s central government approved the conversion of 215,943 hectares of forestland to non-forest use between 2014-15 and 2025-26. On paper, the scale was staggering. In practice, the picture was murkier. Only 62% of that approved land was actually cleared—roughly 134,000 hectares. The gap between authorization and execution matters. It reveals both the volatility of state-level implementation and the possibility that even approved diversion orders do not guarantee forest loss. The baseline for India is this: the country holds 44 million hectares of natural forest, representing about 15% of its total land area as of 2020. India ranks 10th globally in annual forest loss. The forest diversion approval process, governed by India’s Forest Conservation Act, requires federal sign-off before states can convert forest to agriculture, mining, infrastructure, or urban expansion. The approvals are supposed to be rare and scrutinized. Yet 215,943 hectares approved for diversion in a single decade suggests either mounting pressure to develop forested land or a permitting apparatus inclined to grant requests. The fact that only 62% was actually cleared does not validate the permitting process. It raises questions: Why approve land that may not be developed? Are approvals issued speculatively, ahead of actual project execution? Do some approvals lapse before being acted upon? Down to Earth's August 5, 2026 investigation provided the most recent aggregate accounting. The outlet analyzed ministry records and state-level forest department data to construct the decade-long picture. The 62% cleared rate means 82,000 hectares of approved forest land remains theoretically convertible but not yet logged or leveled. Whether it will be converted in future years is uncertain. Within India, deforestation is not uniformly distributed. Northeast India, which comprises Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh, accounts for a disproportionate share of the nation’s forest loss. The region’s geography—monsoon-dependent, biodiverse, steep terrain—makes forest conversion profitable for extractive industries. Tea, timber, and palm plantations compete with conservation. Mining companies have long sought access to northeastern forests for coal, bauxite, and other minerals. The diversion approval data does not break down forest loss by cause. That matters for understanding trajectory. If the 134,000 hectares cleared since 2014-15 was split among agricultural conversion (state-driven), mining (federal and corporate-driven), and infrastructure (highways, dams, power lines), different actors bear different responsibility. Infrastructure projects often require forest clearance regardless of state opposition. Mining leases can be federal decisions. Agricultural pressure is typically state-level. One additional metric adds context: the rate of approval is not stable. If the 215,943 hectare approvals were spread evenly across the decade, that would be roughly 21,594 hectares per year. In reality, the rate may have accelerated in recent years as development pressure increased. Data availability limits precision on year-by-year trends, but the aggregate figure suggests ongoing pressure to open forested land to commercial use. These trends align with broader forest loss challenges facing nations worldwide.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

Study unveils roadmap for zero-emission bus future, calls for green bonds, results-based financing

India's urban bus transport system is in a state of crisis, with more than 400 cities having no organised bus service at all, according to a new study by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and CITIES Forum released on August 10, 2026. The study, titled "The Economics of Bus Transformations: A Roadmap for Viksit Bharat 2047," warns that the country needs an investment of Rs 14.2 lakh crore, or roughly 165 billion dollars, over the next two decades to fix the sector. The report says India's urban population is expected to grow from 490 million now to 763 million by 2047, adding 270 million more city residents. Against this growing demand, the country currently has only about 65,000 organised urban buses, giving just over 13 buses per lakh population, far below the government's benchmark of 44 buses per lakh. This amounts to a 70 per cent shortfall in urban transit capacity nationwide. To close this gap, the study says India's bus fleet must expand tenfold, from 65,000 to 6.71 lakh buses by 2047, while also shifting away from polluting diesel vehicles toward electric buses. Compounding the crisis, 40,000 buses currently in service are already overaged, consuming 20 to 30 per cent more fuel and costing more to maintain, while 5.8 lakh buses across all categories are expected to reach the end of their operational life between 2026 and 2030. Five states, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka, together account for 55 per cent of the country's active bus fleet, highlighting sharp regional disparities. Many State Transport Undertakings are also in deep financial distress, with losses often exceeding their annual revenues. The study recommends that India ramp up its annual bus procurement nearly 17-fold, from about 2,500 buses a year currently to an average of 41,500 buses annually, in order to meet demand and support a 90 per cent electric fleet transition by 2047. It also calls for expanding domestic manufacturing capacity, noting that top manufacturers currently use less than 10 per cent of their electric bus production capacity.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

India faces 70% urban bus deficit, finds new study

India is woefully short of urban bus transport systems, with more than 400 cities lacking any buses. Faced with an overall deficit of more than 70 per cent, nearly Rs 14.20 lakh crores (165 billion dollars) are needed to acquire 6.71 lakh buses by 2047. Worldnews coverage The current fleet strength is just 65,000. The seriousness of the situation can be gauged by the projections that urban population is projected to surge from 490 million in FY 2026 to 763 million by FY 2047, adding 270 million city dwellers, according to a new study titled The Economics of Bus Transformations: A Roadmap for Viksit Bharat 2047 conducted jointly by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and CITIES Forum, a global technical firm. “Of the 14.5 lakh registered buses nationwide and 2.9 lakh State Transport Undertaking (STU) stage-carriage buses, only about 65,000 operate as organised urban city buses. This provides just 13.3 to 13.8 buses per lakh urban population — a 70 per cent shortfall against the government benchmark of 44 per lakh. Consequently, over 400 cities with populations between 100,000 and 1,000,000 completely lack an organised bus transit system,” the study finds. People rely entirely on informal minibus, auto-rickshaw and shared two-wheeler services in such cities. The study pointed out that Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh hold the largest absolute fleets, together accounting for more than half the national active fleet. In contrast, India’s cumulative national stage-carriage fleet reached 1,555,691 buses by FY2025-26 (with an active operational fleet of 10,82,769 vehicles), but the vast majority serve long-distance intercity and semi-urban routes. The study said severe geographical disparities exist, as five states — Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka — concentrate 55 per cent of the active national fleet. Compounding the shortage, 40,000 urban buses in service are overaged (past their 15-year statutory life), burning 20-30 per cent more fuel and incurring maintenance costs of Rs 15 to Rs 20 per kilometer. Nationwide, an unprecedented 5.8 lakh buses across all categories will reach end-of-life between 2026 and 2030. Deep financial distress persists within STUs, where accumulated losses frequently surpass annual operating revenues due to inefficient cost-recovery structures. “India must scale its average urban bus procurement rate 17-fold, rising sharply from 2,500 buses annually to an average of 41,500 per year across three strategic waves including the Catch-Up phase (FY2027-31) requiring 44,000 to 50,000 buses annually to clear backlogs; the Stabilisation phase (FY2032-41) stabilising at 9,000 to 36,000 buses annually to absorb population growth; and the Replacement phase (FY2042-46) peaking at 71,000 to 78,000 buses annually as the initial catch-up fleet hits its 15-year statutory retirement limit,” it said. Reaching a 100 per cent EV share in new procurements by FY2039-40 culminates in 6.04 lakh electric urban buses in service by 2047. Powering this zero-emission fleet requires 121 GWh of active battery capacity and an annual electricity demand of ~37,000 MU — a fully manageable 1.8 per cent of India’s total 2024 power generation. Worldnews coverage “The cost of transition is projected for three growth scenarios. The conservative scenario reaches 44 buses per lakh population by 2047, maintaining a 3.36-lakh bus fleet via 4.2 lakh procurements at a CapEx of Rs 6.55 lakh crore. The accelerated scenario meets MoHUA benchmarks by 2030 and lifts provision to 60 buses per lakh by 2040, operating 4.58 lakh buses via 6.8 lakh procurements at Rs 10.55 lakh crore. The recommended target scenario matches global standards of 88 buses per lakh by 2047, expanding the operational fleet to 6.71 lakh buses (90 per cent electric), and 9.1 lakh procurements, requiring a total CapEx of Rs 14.20 lakh crore,” it said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship scheme PM e-Bus Sewa (2023-27) has sanctioned 10,000 e-buses with a dedicated budget of Rs 20,000 crore specifically targeting deployment in small and medium-sized cities. In another scheme called PM e-Drive, 14,028 e-buses with a budget of Rs 4,391 crore focused on large metropolitan cities has been sanctioned. According to the study, FAME-I added about 425 buses through pilot deployments; FAME-II added about 5,135 deployed of the roughly 6,862 sanctioned to February 2025; and PM e-Bus Sewa had delivered about 5,000 of its 10,000-bus target by early 2026.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

India Needs 10-Fold Bus Fleet Expansion by 2047: Sector Outlook

A report by the Centre for Science and Environment reveals a 70% deficit in India’s urban bus transit, requiring the fleet to grow to 671,000 vehicles by 2047. This massive expansion demands a ₹14.2 lakh crore investment, with a heavy emphasis on electric vehicles. Investors should track how funding models and infrastructure constraints shape this long-term growth opportunity. A new study by the Centre for Science and Environment and the CITIES Forum has brought the scale of India’s urban transport challenges into sharp focus. The report highlights that over 400 Indian cities currently lack organized bus services, contributing to a 70% deficit in urban transit. With the urban population projected to reach 763 million by 2047, the demand for public transport is set for a significant long-term increase. To bridge this gap, India needs to expand its urban bus fleet tenfold, moving from the current 65,000 buses to 671,000 vehicles over the next two decades. This requirement translates to an ambitious procurement target of roughly 41,500 buses annually—a 17-fold increase from current purchasing levels. Achieving this will require a cumulative investment of ₹14.2 lakh crore, covering not just the buses themselves, but the necessary depots, power grids, and charging infrastructure. The Shift Toward Electric Mobility A critical part of this expansion is the push toward cleaner energy, with the report aiming for 90% of the new fleet to be electric by 2047. This transition represents a major industrial shift for bus manufacturers and the power sector. Scaling up to this level would require an estimated 121 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity annually and a massive increase in electricity supply. For the automotive and infrastructure industries, this signals a long-term demand cycle for electric vehicle (EV) technology, charging stations, and grid management services. Financial and Operational Risks While the growth potential is high, the execution path faces distinct challenges. A major hurdle is the financial health of State Transport Undertakings, many of which struggle with low creditworthiness. Without sustainable subsidy models, green bonds, or concessional financing, state-run bodies may find it difficult to fund such massive fleet upgrades. Furthermore, the high upfront cost of electric buses—which can be significantly more expensive than diesel counterparts—puts pressure on project viability. Infrastructure readiness is another critical monitorable. Simply buying more buses will not solve the transit deficit if there is no corresponding development of depots, electricity grid capacity, and fast-charging networks. What Investors Should Monitor As this sector evolves, investors may look for updates on the proposed National Urban Bus Mission, which aims to provide structured support and dedicated funding for this transition. The speed of fleet procurement, the stability of government EV subsidy schemes, and the ability of power utilities to meet increased electricity demand will be key indicators. Additionally, tracking how companies manage the shift from diesel to electric manufacturing and their ability to secure large-scale government contracts will be important for assessing the long-term impact on their profit margins and market share.

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El Niño, Climate Change And India's Monsoon | Why 2026 Matters | Sunita Narain Show

India's monsoon is the country's true pierce brosnan finance minister. It determines food production, water availability, livelihoods and economic growth. north korea In 2026, India faces the combined challenge of a strong El Niño and a warming climate, raising concerns about below average rainfall and increasing weather extremes. As weather systems become more volatile, the need to value every drop of rain and strengthen rainwater harvesting has never been greater. Understanding the monsoon is essential to understanding India's future.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

KSRTC requires 25,000 buses in 2025-26, only behindUP in demand

Karnataka is among the top five states with the largest bus fleets in the country, according to a study conducted by Delhi-based organisations Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and CITIES Forum, a global technical consultancy. The study found that Karnataka State Road Transport Corporation achieves an 85% cost-recovery ratio, with an average fare of Rs 9.2 per 10km, the third highest in the country. It estimated that Karnataka would require 25,000 buses in 2025-26, the secondhighest demand after Uttar Pradesh, which requires 95,000 buses. While Uttar Pradesh was categorised as a state with “stressed and large accumulated losses”, Karnataka was classified as “moderate and improving”. Despite the challenges, Karnataka is among five states that account for more than 50% of the national active bus fleet. Bengaluru Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) was also recognised as one of the few organised urban bus service agencies in the country. The study, titled ‘Reinventing the Urban Bus: Financial Strategies and Strategic Roadmap for Scaling India’s Bus Sector’, noted that high-performing transport undertakings such as KSRTC (Karnataka), KSRTC (Kerala) and GSRTC (Gujarat) achieve cost-recovery ratios of 80-93% while maintaining manageable staff-to-bus ratios of 5.5 to 5.8. The report stated that the southern region, led by Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, has the most developed State Transport Undertaking (STU) ecosystem in India, with extensive networks, relatively high utilisation levels and advanced adoption of electric buses. “Karnataka’s KSRTC operates one of India’s largest and most professionally managed transport networks. Kerala’s KSRTC has been an early mover in electric bus adoption,” the study observed. In terms of regional fleet distribution for 2025-26, Karnataka accounts for 33% of the active fleet of 3.5 lakh buses. The study highlighted the state’s strengths as having the “highest fleet intensity, strongest STU capacity and the most advanced EV adoption”.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

भारत के शहरों में बसों की 70% भारी किल्लत: 400 से अधिक शहरों में एक भी बस नहीं, CSE रिपोर्ट में बड़ा खुलासा

भारत के शहरों में सार्वजनिक बस परिवहन प्रणाली की हालत बेहद चिंताजनक है। सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (CSE) और ग्लोबल टेक्निकल फर्म CITIES Forum द्वारा संयुक्त रूप से जारी की गई अध्ययन रिपोर्ट "द इकोनॉमिक्स ऑफ बस ट्रांसफॉर्मेशन्स: ए रोडमैप फॉर विकसित भारत 2047" में सामने आया है कि देश के शहरी इलाकों में बसों की 70 प्रतिशत से अधिक की भारी कमी है। आंकड़ों के अनुसार, देश के 400 से अधिक छोटे-बड़े शहरों में संगठित बस सेवा पूरी तरह नदारद है। इन शहरों में आम नागरिक पूरी तरह से अनौपचारिक मिनीबसों, ऑटो-रिक्शा और शेयरिंग टू-व्हीलर्स पर निर्भर हैं। देश में इस समय कितनी अर्बन बसें चल रही हैं और क्या हैं सरकार के मानक? अध्ययन के मुताबिक, भारत की शहरी बस प्रणाली आबादी की जरूरतों के मुकाबले काफी पीछे है: बसों की संख्या: देश में कुल 14.5 लाख पंजीकृत बसों और राज्य परिवहन उपक्रमों (STUs) की 2.9 लाख बसों में से केवल 65,000 बसें ही संगठित शहरी सिटी बसों के रूप में संचालित हो रही हैं। प्रति लाख आबादी पर उपलब्धता: वर्तमान में प्रति एक लाख शहरी आबादी पर केवल 13.3 से 13.8 बसें उपलब्ध हैं। जबकि सरकार का न्यूनतम मानक प्रति लाख आबादी पर 44 बसों का है। बढ़ती आबादी की चुनौती: वित्तीय वर्ष 2026 में भारत की शहरी आबादी 49 करोड़ से बढ़कर वित्तीय वर्ष 2047 तक 76.3 करोड़ (763 मिलियन) होने का अनुमान है। यानी शहरों में 27 करोड़ नए नागरिक जुड़ेंगे, जिससे यह संकट और गहरा हो सकता है।