Trump Is President Again, and It’s Bad News For the Climate
On November 6, Donald Trump was elected the 47th US president. This will be Trump’s second term as president. US stock markets soared after Trump’s victory. Even India’s market rallied, boosting investor wealth by Rs 7.75 trillion by one estimate. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among the first leaders to congratulate Trump, said that he was “looking forward to working closely” with Trump once again “to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors”. But many are unhappy. Scientists, environmentalists and activists have noted Trump’s win in the US elections with much concern, for Trump, a climate denier and sceptic, has been very clear about his thoughts about climate change and climate action: he has called global warming a “hoax”. Even during his campaign for the just-concluded US elections, he said that people were talking about ‘oceans rising’ (he meant sea levels rising), but “who the hell cares?”. One of the guarantees his campaign this year rode on was that with Trump at the helm, the US would tap into new reserves of fossil fuels. Some called Trump’s victory in the US elections on Wednesday a “black day” for climate; a former environment minister of Brazil called it “the planet’s biggest civilisational and climatic step backwards”. There are ways that Trump’s ascent to the presidency could also affect India, especially with regard to exports, because some of India’s clean energy technology is exported to the US. But when it comes to climate action, many are clear: Trump’s re-emergence as US president may, at the most, stall – not deter – the US’s and the world’s transition to clean energy. The climate background The past week has been momentous with news that has been coming in regarding climate change and its impacts, with regions experiencing different types of extreme weather events that are claiming lives and causing huge economic, environmental and social losses and damages. Spain is still struggling in the aftermath of one of the deadliest flash floods that the country has ever witnessed. Intense rains on October 29 aggravated by climate change killed more than 200, and more than 70 are still missing. On November 8, parts of northeast Spain witnessed new flash floods. On November 7, the Copernicus Climate Change Service – which is part of the European Union’s space programme and releases monthly climate bulletins – released data that shows that it was “virtually certain” the year 2024 would be the warmest year and that the first year when global warming has breached the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels. October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, in terms of surface air temperatures. “After ten months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset,” commented Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, in a press release. “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.” article image ALSO READ Deaths, Destruction on the Rise Due to Extreme Weather Events: Grim Statistics in India Climate Report 2024 View More On the same day that the Copernicus report was released, the United Nations Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report found that there is still a huge gap in adaptation finance. Basically, it found that developed countries – many of them, including the US, have been historical emitters of greenhouse gases and thus have an obligation to invest more in climate action – need to drastically increase their funding to developing nations to implement measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change. On November 8, data compiled by the Centre for Science and Environment and its publication Down to Earth showed that extreme weather events are consistently on the rise in India. In the first nine months of the year, extreme events occurred on 255 out of a total 274 days across the country. These events – ranging from lightning and storms to heavy rain, floods, landslides and heat waves – claimed the lives of 3,238 people, affected 3.2 million hectares of crops, destroyed 2,35,862 houses and buildings, and killed 9,457 livestock across the country. Meanwhile, all eyes are now on Baku, Azerbaijan. Here, at the 29th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP29) which kicked off on Monday (November 11), representatives of governments, world leaders and others are sitting down together to discuss, negotiate and implement actions towards tackling climate change. The first day of the COP has already witnessed countries agreeing to a UN-backed carbon credit standard, which will permit carbon offsets to be traded across nations. A denier and sceptic to the core It is in this backdrop that Trump is preparing for a second term as US president. Director general of the Centre for Science and Environment and editor of Down to Earth Sunita Narain alluded to the Trump factor as she launched the India Climate Report virtually on November 8. The report was being launched at a time when Trump, a “climate sceptic”, has come back to power, she said. “He has openly said that climate change does not happen, is not happening,” Narain said, of Trump coming back to power in the US. “He has openly said that he will revive energy drilling in his country. As part of his plan, the cost of energy will fall and there will be more drilling … he has said very clearly that the green deal of Biden is history as far as he is concerned. This is important not because of the global leadership role that the US has played, but because it continues to be a country with a very high emission load.” Trump’s climate denial is well-known. “We should be focused on magnificently clean and healthy air and not distracted by the expensive hoax that is global warming!,” he tweeted in 2013. In 2015, he said in an interview: “I believe in clean air. Immaculate air. But I don’t believe in climate change.” His attitude to the issue of global warming and climate change has since not changed. On November 2 this year, as part of his election campaign, he said that “nuclear warming”, not global warming, was the biggest threat. “So they talk all the time about the ocean will rise in 500 years, one-eighth of an inch, who the hell cares?” he said. (Of course, he got the numbers wrong, too.) And over the course of his campaign, “drill, baby, drill” has been a common refrain on his lips; he promised to open up new gas reserves if he came back to power. “We are going to – I used this expression, now everyone else is using it so I hate to use it, but – ‘drill, baby, drill’,” he said. On the day he was elected president for the second time, Trump said: “We have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. We have more than Russia.” This matters because even with the US’s current levels of fossil fuel consumption – which would be low when compared to what Trump hopes to unleash in the years to come – the US is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases. “The US is the world’s single largest historical emitter of greenhouse gas emissions … This matters because we know that the lifetime of carbon dioxide is 150-170 years,” Narain said at the virtual launch of the India Climate Report 2024 on November 8. “So we cannot deny the historical contributions of a country because those emissions have not disappeared.” These emissions are part of the stock of emissions in the atmosphere that is causing the climate to change, she said. The US is also the second largest annual emitter, and the largest on a per capita basis, she added. Between 2000 and 2023, the US produced the highest total carbon emissions per capita by region (which factors in population) as per the International Energy Agency.
