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Cse In News

Vehicle imbalance cuts Delhi pollution gains, CSE report highlights growth of private cars

Inadequate public transport services and explosive growth of private vehicles in the national capital are undercutting air quality improvements achieved through electric vehicles, an environmental think-tank has said in a report. The Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has noted that the share of private vehicles contributing to motorised trips in Delhi has increased from 38 per cent to 49 per cent in the last decade. The share of bus trips has declined by 20 per cent.

After Supreme Court rap, Centre doubles penalty for stubble burning

In response to Supreme Court’s (SC’s) criticism of the Environment Protection Act (EPA), 1986, and its “toothless” penalties, the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change on Wednesday doubled the fines on stubble burning to combat the deteriorating air quality in Delhi and surrounding regions. “Unless proper exercise of power under Section 15 of the Act is made, there cannot be any effective action against the wrongdoers. We expect the government to take action within two weeks from today,” the Bench had said in its order. The updated penalties, introduced under the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) Act of 2021, impose a Rs 5,000 fine on farmers with less than two acres, Rs 10,000 on those between two and five acres, and Rs 30,000 for larger landholders engaging in the practice. According to the data presented by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) on Wednesday, local pollution sources in Delhi account for 30.34 per cent of the city’s air pollution (50.1 per cent of which is contributed through transportation), while 34.97 per cent originates from the neighbouring NCR districts and 27.94 per cent from other areas. Stubble burning contributes only 8.19 per cent to Delhi's pollution levels. This is the central government’s second action following a SC reprimand on unchecked environmental violations. Business Standard on Thursday reported that the MoEFCC has introduced the Environment Protection (Manner of Holding Inquiry and Imposition of Penalty) Rules, 2024, which provide comprehensive guidelines for investigating and penalising environmental violations.

Centre hikes stubble burning fines, farmers may face Rs 30,000 penalty

The Government of India has doubled penalties for farmers involved in stubble burning to combat Delhi’s air pollution. Under the new rules, effective immediately, farmers with less than two acres will face a Rs 5,000 fine. Those with two to five acres will incur a Rs 10,000 penalty, while farmers with over five acres will be fined Rs 30,000 for each instance of burning paddy stubble, according to the updated 2024 rules from the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) in National Capital Region (NCR) and Adjoining Areas. The amended rules in the CAQM (Imposition, Collection and Utilization of Environmental Compensation for Stubble Burning) Amendment Rules, 2024, were issued under the Environment Protection Act (EPA), 1986. The new enforcement mechanism follows a Supreme Court rebuke of India’s environmental regulations last month, when the EPA was criticized as “toothless” due to ineffective fines and delays in appointing enforcement officers after the 2023 Jan Vishwas Amendment diluted penalties under the act. The Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change notified the Environment Protection (Manner of Holding Inquiry and Imposition of Penalty) Rules, 2024, detailing processes for lodging complaints, initiating inquiries, and handling pollution violations. This includes filing complaints with the central and state pollution control boards, the CAQM, and the Union Environment Ministry. The changes come as Delhi’s air quality remains dire. On November 7, the city recorded a “very poor” air quality index (AQI) of 369, according to SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research). The Supreme Court had previously expressed concern over the EPA’s effectiveness, citing a lack of adjudicating officers to enforce penalties. A recent Court order emphasized that, without a framework and appointed officers, the penalties in Section 15 of the EPA were unenforceable. A recent Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) report underscored that vehicle emissions, not farm fires, are the main contributor to Delhi’s pollution crisis. The CSE study analyzed particulate matter (PM) pollution, congestion, and the strained public transport system, using real-time data from the Central Pollution Control Board, farm fire counts, and traffic metrics. The government’s revised penalty structure for stubble burning represents a significant step toward enforcing accountability for pollution; however, its impact remains to be seen as the enforcement framework evolves.

Trump as US president will deepen climate crisis: Policy experts

NEW DELHI: Donald Trump's election as the president of the United States is a profound blow to global climate justice, and his disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis, international policy experts said on Wednesday. Sunita Narain, the director general of Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment, said Trump winning the White House race is a "big setback" for global climate efforts, especially if he rolls back critical domestic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). She said the US has historically fallen short in global climate efforts, particularly on financing support for vulnerable countries, decarbonisation and financial commitments to the developing world, and Trump's presidency will make matters even worse.

Centre Doubles Penalty for Stubble Burning Amid Rising Air Pollution in Delhi-NCR

New Delhi: In response to the escalating air pollution crisis in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR), the central government has announced a significant increase in penalties for stubble burning. This move aims to curb the harmful practice that contributes substantially to the region’s deteriorating air quality. Under the new regulations, farmers will face doubled fines based on the size of their landholdings. Those with less than two acres will be fined Rs 5,000, up from the previous Rs 2,500. Farmers with land between two to five acres will now pay Rs 10,000, while those with more than five acres will face a penalty of Rs 30,000. These measures are part of the amended Commission for Air Quality Management in National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas Rules of 2023. The decision comes as Delhi’s Air Quality Index (AQI) continues to surpass hazardous levels, often exceeding 400. Stubble burning, particularly in the neighboring states of Punjab and Haryana, has been identified as a major contributor to the seasonal spike in pollution levels. The government hopes that the increased fines will deter farmers from burning crop residue and encourage the adoption of more sustainable practices. Haryana’s Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has urged farmers to cease stubble burning and utilize government-provided equipment for sustainable stubble management. The government has also been promoting the use of subsidized machinery to help farmers manage crop residue without resorting to burning. While stubble burning is a significant factor, experts like environmentalist Sunita Narain point out that persistent sources of pollution within Delhi, such as transportation and industrial emissions, also play a crucial role in the city’s poor air quality. The government’s comprehensive approach aims to address both immediate and long-term sources of pollution.

Centre doubles fines for stubble burning

The Centre has doubled the fine for farmers burning crop residue in view of the deteriorating air quality in the Delhi-NCR region, the penalty going up to Rs 30,000 for those with more than five acres of farmland. According to the notification, which was published on Wednesday and comes following the Supreme Court's tough stance on the issue, farmers with less than two acres of land will now have to pay environmental compensation of Rs 5,000, up from Rs 2,500. And those with land between two and five acres will be fined Rs 10,000 instead of Rs 5,000. Unfavourable meteorological conditions combined with vehicular emissions, paddy-straw burning, firecrackers, and other local pollution sources contribute to hazardous air quality levels in Delhi-NCR during late autumn and winters. According to a Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC) analysis, the city experiences peak pollution from November 1 to 15 when the number of stubble-burning incidents in Punjab and Haryana increases. Major factors behind stubble burning include the paddy-wheat cropping system, cultivation of long-duration paddy varieties, mechanised harvesting that leaves standing crop stubble in the field, labour scarcity, and the lack of a viable market for crop residue. Studies estimate that during peak burning periods, farm fires contribute up to 30 per cent of PM levels in the Delhi-NCR region and surrounding areas. However, according to senior environmentalist Sunita Narain, the episodic burning of crop residue by farmers in winter is not the primary concern for poor air quality in Delhi-NCR. Instead, the persistent and major sources of pollution within the city, including transport and industries, are more worrisome.

आर्टिफिशियल रेन सिर्फ दिखावा: दिल्ली का प्रदूषण कम करने के लिए चाहिए ठोस कदम, CSE की डीजी सुनीता नारायण का कड़ा बयान

पर्यावरणविद सुनीता नारायण ने कहा सिर्फ कृत्रिम बारिश दिल्ली प्रदूषण को नहीं मिटा पाएगी। साथ ही GRAP के तहत साल भर काम न होने पर नाराजगी जताई और बोलीं कि पटाखों पर सारा दोष थोपना ठीक नहीं है। दिल्ली के बढ़ते प्रदूषण को रोकने के लिए कृत्रिम बारिश यानी Artificial Rain की चर्चा के बीच सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (CSE) की डायरेक्टर जनरल और पर्यावरणविद सुनीता नारायण ने गंभीर चिंता जताई है। उन्होंने कहा है कि कृत्रिम बारिश से दिल्ली का प्रदूषण कम नहीं होगा। उन्होंने सरकार और प्रशासन पर GRAP (ग्रेडेड रिस्पॉन्स एक्शन प्लान) को प्रभावी ढंग से लागू न करने का आरोप लगाया है।

क्या कैंसर का भी कारण बन सकता है बढ़ता प्रदूषण? आपको हैरान कर देंगी ये जानकारियां

सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (सीएसई) ने एक निष्कर्ष में कहा है कि वाहनों से निकलने वाला धुआं, पराली जलाने, सड़क की धूल या पटाखों के कारण दिल्ली में प्रदूषण का स्तर इतना बढ़ गया है। सभी लोगों को प्रदूषण से बचाव को लेकर निरंतर प्रयास करते रहना चाहिए। अध्ययनों में वायु प्रदूषण को सेहत के लिए कई प्रकार से हानिकारक माना गया है। श्वसन समस्याओं के साथ हृदय और मस्तिष्क की बीमारियां भी वायु प्रदूषण के कारण बढ़ती देखी जा रही हैं। कुछ शोध बताते हैं कि प्रदूषित वातावरण में लंबे समय तक रहने से कैंसर का भी खतरा हो सकता है। आइए इस बारे में जानते हैं। धूम्रपान और प्रदूषण दोनों से लंग्स कैंसर का खतरा कैनेडियन कैंसर (cancer) सोसाइटी ने एक रिपोर्ट में कहा कि हम जानते हैं कि फेफड़ों के कैंसर के लिए धूम्रपान सबसे बड़ा जोखिम कारक है। अब इस बात के भी पुख्ता सबूत हैं कि बाहरी वायु प्रदूषण भी फेफड़े के कैंसर के जोखिम को बढ़ा रही है। आप वायु प्रदूषण के संपर्क में जितना ज्यादा रहेंगे, फेफड़े के कैंसर का जोखिम उतना ही अधिक होगा। शोधकर्ताओं ने यह भी पाया है कि सिर्फ बाहरी ही नहीं इनडोर प्रदूषण के कारण भी लंग्स कैंसर का खतरा बढ़ सकता है। घर के अंदर की हवा में मौजूद रेडॉन गैस को इसके लिए जिम्मेदार पाया गया है। क्या कहते हैं विशेषज्ञ? कैंसर रिसर्च यूके ने एक रिपोर्ट में बताया, वायु प्रदूषण में कई प्रकार के सूक्ष्म और हानिकारक कणों का मिश्रण होता है, जो शरीर में पहुंचकर कई प्रकार के स्वास्थ्य जोखिमों को बढ़ाने वाला हो सकता है। उदाहरण के लिए, फेफड़ों में छोटे कण जमा होकर कोशिकाओं में डीएनए को नुकसान पहुंचाते देखे गए हैं। इससे कोशिकाओं के विभाजन का तरीका बदल जाता है, जिससे कैंसर हो सकता है। यूरोप में फेफड़ों के कैंसर से होने वाली 9% मौतों के लिए वायु प्रदूषण को जिम्मेदार माना गया है। भारत में, धूम्रपान न करने वालों में फेफड़ों के कैंसर के मामलों में हाल में वृद्धि देखी गई है। इनमें से ज्यादातर लोगों का प्रदूषित वातावरण से संपर्क अधिक देखा गया। इन कैंसर का भी बढ़ जाता है जोखिम वायु प्रदूषण सिर्फ फेफड़े ही नहीं कई अन्य प्रकार के कैंसर के लिए भी जिम्मेदार हो सकता है। वायु प्रदूषण के मुख्य कारक पार्टिकुलेट मैटर (पीएम) के लंबे समय तक संपर्क में रहने से वयस्कों और बच्चों में ल्यूकेमिया होने का खतरा बढ़ता देखा गया है। ये रक्त बनाने वाले ऊतकों का कैंसर है। इसके अलावा कुछ शोध ये भी बताते हैं कि प्रदूषण के कारण एसोफेगल कैंसर का भी खतरा हो सकता है। ये गले से पेट तक जाने वाली नली (ग्रासनली) का कैंसर है।

Delhi's air quality remains 'very poor' for 4th consecutive day

Delhi's air quality continued to remain in the "very poor" category for the fourth consecutive day, with the Early Warning System for Delhi (EWS) noting unfavorable conditions for pollutant dispersion. The average Air Quality Index (AQI) on Wednesday morning was recorded at 356, slightly better than Tuesday's 373. However, no major improvement is expected until Friday. Diwali impact Strong winds post-Diwali prevent AQI from reaching severe Anumita Roychowdhury of the Centre for Science and Environment noted that even with Diwali on October 31, strong winds cleared out pollutants quickly. "This year, the overall temperature has also been higher throughout October, not just at the end of the month," she said. "However, one has to realize that AQI was still touching very poor even in October, which means our background emissions are high and it will only take a further dip in temperature to possibly touch severe."

‘Very poor’ air chokes Delhi third day running

Delhi’s air quality remained perilously close to plunging into the “severe” category, marking a third consecutive day in the higher end of the “very poor” range on Tuesday. The city’s 24-hour average Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 373, slightly down from Monday’s 381, but still signalling a critical pollution trend as calm winds and seasonal conditions exacerbate pollutant build-up. Experts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warn this stillness in the air will continue to make the dispersal of pollutants increasingly challenging in the coming days, especially as winter tightens its hold, allowing particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) to accumulate to hazardous concentrations. “Even now, the climatic conditions are not significantly changing,” said a senior IMD official. “Wind speeds are dropping at night, while daytime gusts remain low at 5-7 km/hr, with fluctuations in direction. As temperatures dip further, the likelihood of severe AQI spikes rises,” they said, noting that forecasts suggest this pattern may hold through November 8. However, there appears to be some silver lining to the clouds of haze. Historically, data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) shows that by early November, Delhi’s AQI has typically already spiked to “severe” levels at least once since 2015. However, a spell of post-Diwali winds and unusually high October temperatures have kept the city from crossing this threshold — for now. CPCB classifies AQI between 0-50 as “good”, between 51 and 100 as “satisfactory”, between 101 and 200 as “moderate”, between 201 and 300 as “poor”, between 301 and 400 as “very poor”, and over 400 as “severe” – considered a final a tipping point with stark health consequences, especially for vulnerable populations. With wind speeds remaining minimal for most of Monday night and on early Tuesday, the season’s first official fog event of the season was reported on Tuesday morning – visibility plummeted to 800m at Safdarjung between 7 and 7.30am. Visibility between 500m and 1000m is classified as ‘shallow’ fog. Met officials said fog is slight delayed this year, with the first shallow fog generally spell occurring in the last week of October. IMD data showed last year, the first fog of the winter season was reported on October 31, while in 2022, it occurred on October 12. “Fog formation depends on the meteorological conditions. One needs sufficient moisture and calm winds to lead to fog formation. Normally, we see our first fog of the season in the last week of October,” said RK Jenamani, scientist at IMD. The Capital’s monitors show alarming consistency in terms of pollution. By 4 pm on Tuesday, at least 10 of the 40 ambient air quality stations recorded “severe” readings, including Anand Vihar and Wazirpur, both over 425. Anand Vihar, Wazirpur, Jahangirpuri, and Ashok Vihar have all now registered severe AQI levels for three days straight. Forecasts by the Centre’s Early Warning System for Delhi (EWS) said conditions will remain unfavourable for dispersion, but no significant change is expected in AQI. “Delhi’s air quality is likely to remaubin the ‘very poor’ category from November 6 till 8,” said the EWS bulletin on Tuesday. Data from the Centre’s Decision Support System (DSS), meanwhile, showed the contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s air on Monday was 23.3%, up from 19.7% a day earlier. The seasonal stubble burning that spikes each autumn also continues to add to the city’s airborne pollutants, contributing 23.3% of Delhi’s PM2.5 load on Monday, up from 19.7% on Sunday, according to the Centre’s Decision Support System. Experts say that while current weather patterns have temporarily delayed severe pollution levels, this relief is tenuous. “Despite Diwali on October 31, strong winds and higher than normal temperature have helped Delhi dissipate pollutants in a matter of hours. This year, the overall temperature has also been higher throughout October, not just at the end of the month. However, one has to realise that AQI was still touching ‘very poor’ even in October, which means our background emissions are high and it will only take a further dip in temperature to possibly touch severe,” said Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy. Both maximum and minimum temperature were above normal on Tuesday. The minimum stood at 17.6°C, two notches above normal and a degree higher than Monday’s low. The maximum was 32.6°C, also two degrees above normal and 0.5°C higher than Monday’s maximum. Forecast for Wednesday shows shallow fog is likely in the early hours, with the maximum and minimum to hover around 33 and 17°C respectively.

Delhi’s air quality remains very poor; shallow fog envelopes city for 2nd day

Delhi’s air quality remained in the higher end of the “very poor” category for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as calm winds continued to impact the dispersion of pollutants even as the shallow fog enveloped the city for a second day. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said visibility dipped to around 800 metres at 7am. Similar visibility persisted over the next hour. “Winds were calm, with shallow fog recorded for a second straight day. On Tuesday, when we saw the season’s first shallow fog, visibility dropped to 800 metres,” said an IMD official. An average air quality index (AQI) of 356 (very poor) was recorded at 9am. It marked a slight improvement from Tuesday’s 4pm reading of 373 (very poor), The Early Warning System for Delhi (EWS) said conditions remain unfavourable for the dispersion of pollutants and no significant change was expected in the air quality. It said the air quality was likely to be in the “very poor” until Friday. Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data showed at least four stations recorded severe category air quality at 9am on Wednesday. NSIT recorded 444 and Wazirpur an average AQI of 421. CPCB classifies AQI between 0-50 as “good”, between 51 and 100 as “satisfactory”, between 101 and 200 as “moderate”, between 201 and 300 as “poor”, between 301 and 400 as “very poor”, and over 400 as “severe”. AQI has worsened to severe at least once by November 6 as per CPCB data since 2015. The earliest Delhi’s AQI touched severe since 2015 was on October 20 in 2017. Normally, it happens between the last week of October and the first week of November. This happened on November 1 in 2015, October 29, 2016, October 30 in 2018 and 2019, November 5 in 2020 and 2021, November 1, 2022, and November 3 last year. Strong winds post-Diwali and higher-than-normal temperatures were key factors behind preventing AQI from touching the severe mark this season. Centre for Science and Environment executive director (research and advocacy) Anumita Roychowdhury said that despite Diwali on October 31, strong winds and higher-than-normal temperatures helped dissipate pollutants in hours. “This year, the overall temperature has also been higher throughout October, not just at the end of the month. However, one has to realise that AQI was still touching very poor even in October, which means our background emissions are high and it will only take a further dip in temperature to possibly touch severe.” Delhi environment minister Gopal Rai on Tuesday announced the start of a campaign to check open waste burning from Wednesday. He added that 588 teams will be deployed across the city for this.

Encouraging Indian farmers to avail carbon credit benefits

India recently launched the Framework for Voluntary Carbon Market in Agriculture Sector. This is with a view to encourage small and medium farmers to avail benefits of carbon credit, according to an Indian Press Information Bureau press release. Carbon markets are systems designed to place a price on carbon emissions and create economic incentives for emission reduction, also known as ‘carbon credits’. Introducing farmers to the carbon market is expected to not only benefit them but also accelerate the adoption of environment-friendly agricultural practices. Farmers can adopt sustainable agriculture practices and get additional income from carbon credits as well as other agro-ecological benefits in terms of improved natural capital such as soil, water, biodiversity etc., according to the ministry. Union Agriculture Minister Mr. Arjun Munda on the occasion emphasised the framework’s focus on ‘small and medium farmers’ and their crucial role in India’s agriculture and aiming to reach over 54.6% of the workforce, covering 139.3 million hectares of sown land. This aligns with the national goal of sustainable development, promoting eco-friendly practices like organic farming and agroforestry. Farmers can earn carbon credits for verifiable carbon sequestration activities, potentially creating a new revenue stream while contributing to India’s ambitious climate goals. He requested full cooperation from the concerned ministries of the Centre and states and other concerned organisations to promote carbon markets in the interest of farmers. The agriculture ministry has therefore recently developed this framework for promoting a voluntary carbon market in India for the agricultural sector to encourage small and marginal farmers to benefit from carbon credit, as per a Financial Express (FE) report. In a first-of-its-kind initiative to incentivise for adoption of environmentally sustainable agriculture practices, smallholder farmers across eight states including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Maharashtra would be financially rewarded with carbon credit soon, the report adds. The FE report also points out that agri-major Bayer, Shell, Mitsubishi and GenZero who have formed ‘the Good Rice Alliance’, have decided to scale up their carbon credit programme in nine states to empower their paddy farmers for adopting smart agriculture practices — Alternate Wetting and Drying and direct-seeded rice. The programme plans to add nearly 8500 hectares. In the last one year, the project has generated around 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) methane emission reductions annually from agriculture positively. This has impacted 10,000 farmers, covering more than 25,000 hectares in the key rice producing states – Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Karnataka, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The farmers in the key rice growing region could earn carbon credit after adopting sustainable practices which results in reduction in greenhouse gases and improve soil carbon sequestration. In October 2023, an investigation by Down To Earth (DTE) and the Centre for Science and Environment found several problems like the lack of robust monitoring, overestimation of emission reduction as well as lack of ownership of carbon credits, among others, with the voluntary carbon market in India. The report calls for transparency in the market, deciding clear objectives of such a market and designing rules accordingly. According to a DTE report, carbon credits are issued for nine types of projects that either avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by allowing a switchover to clean sources or those that remove/sequester the already-emitted GHGs. Over 32% of all credits issued in the voluntary carbon market are for renewable energy. About 90 per cent of these credits are for grid-connected electricity generation from renewable sources, with wind (49%), hydropower (33%), and centralised solar (15%) being most common. Projects include methane reduction activities from paddy fields, improved irrigation. Manure methane management (78%) and rice emission reduction (17.5%) projects make up for the majority of credits issued. US and China lead in terms of credit issuance under agriculture. Focus on ecosystem-based approaches to reduce emissions and/or increase removal of GHGs from land-use activities, such as afforestation, improved forest management and wetland restoration. This category attracts the largest share of credits; most are in the US, Indonesia, Brazil and Peru. India’s lucrative carbon market is worth over $1.2 billion. It will only grow as the crisis of climate change becomes more urgent and companies strive to attain net-zero emission goals.

Future of Paris pact on climate change now shaky: Ramesh on Trump win

Congress MP and former Union environment minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday said Donald Trump's comeback has made the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change which America had rejoined under President Joe Biden "extremely shaky", and added that if the US were to withdraw again, it would be disastrous. Incoming President Donald Trump won a second term as US president in one of the greatest political comebacks in American history, cruising past his Democrat rival Kamala Harris in a bitterly fought election. The Congress general-secretary (communications) said Trump has staged an astonishing comeback. "Undoubtedly, why and how it happened will be analysed in great detail over the next few weeks, as will the question of what this comeback means for the US and the rest of the world," Ramesh said. "But what is certain is that the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change which America had rejoined under President Joe Biden is now extremely shaky. If the US were to withdraw again it would be disastrous," the former environment minister said. International policy experts seemed to echo his view, saying Trump's re-election as president is a profound blow to global climate justice and his disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis. unita Narain, director-general of the Delhi-based thinktank Centre for Science and Environment, said Trump winning the White House race is a "big setback" for global climate efforts, especially if he rolls back critical domestic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). She said the US has historically fallen short in global climate efforts, particularly on financing support for vulnerable countries, decarbonisation and financial commitments to the developing world, and Trump's presidency will make matters even worse.