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साम्बा: जम्मू-कश्मीर में पिघल रहे सभी 10 ग्लेशियर, लगातार निगरानी की जरूरत

इससे भी ज्यादा चौंकाने वाले सबूत सामने आए हैं कि जम्मू-कश्मीर एक आसन्न जलवायु आपदा पर बैठा है। बुरी खबर केंद्र सरकार की एक रिपोर्ट और साथ ही दिल्ली स्थित जाने-माने सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (सीएसडब्ल्यू) दोनों से आई है। सीएसई की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, जम्मू-कश्मीर के सभी 10 ग्लेशियर भारत के उन 39 ग्लेशियरों में शामिल हैं, जो उच्च जोखिम में पाए गए हैं। रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, ये ग्लेशियर तेजी से पिघल रहे हैं, पिछले दशक में इनके जल स्तर में 40 प्रतिशत की वृद्धि दर्ज की गई है। रिपोर्ट में चेतावनी दी गई है, “किसी भी आपदा से बचने के लिए उन पर कड़ी निगरानी रखने की जरूरत है।” जल संसाधन विभाग, भारत सरकार द्वारा हिमालयी क्षेत्र में हिमनद झीलों और जल निकायों की निगरानी की रिपोर्ट ने भी सिफारिश की है कि “भविष्य में किसी भी आपदा से बचने के लिए इन हिमनद झीलों और जल निकायों को निरंतर निगरानी की आवश्यकता है।” तो, ग्लेशियर की स्थिति में यह बदलाव पृथ्वी पर जीवन के लिए क्या कर सकता है? शोधकर्ताओं ने पाया है कि यह सबसे पहले हिमनदों की झीलों को बनाने वाले स्थान को भर सकता है और भर सकता है। दूसरा, यह मौजूदा बुनियादी ढांचे के नियंत्रण से परे बाढ़ का कारण बन सकता है। इसका एक उदाहरण इस साल फरवरी में देखा गया था, जब उत्तराखंड के हिमालय में एक ग्लेशियर का एक टुकड़ा ऊंचा टूट गया था, जिससे एक पनबिजली संयंत्र के माध्यम से एक घातक फ्लैश बाढ़ आ गई थी। इसने कई घरों को भी तबाह कर दिया। इस घटना में कश्मीर के एक इंजीनियर सहित जम्मू-कश्मीर के दो लोगों की मौत हो गई, जिसमें 70 से अधिक लोगों की जान चली गई। एक अन्य रिपोर्ट में, सीएसई ने दिखाया है कि जलवायु आपदाओं ने लोगों को पहले ही क्या कर दिया है। इसकी स्टेट ऑफ इंडिया की पर्यावरण रिपोर्ट 2021 कहती है कि 2020 में भारत में 39 लाख लोग जलवायु आपदाओं और संघर्षों और पर्यावरण से संबंधित हिंसा के कारण विस्थापित हुए थे। अधिकांश विस्थापन हिमस्खलन और भूस्खलन जैसी प्रमुख जलवायु आपदाओं के कारण हुए, जो अक्सर जम्मू और कश्मीर में होते हैं। रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है, “भारत भूकंप, सुनामी, चक्रवात, तूफान और सूखे सहित अन्य अचानक और धीमी गति से शुरू होने वाले खतरों से भी ग्रस्त है।” रिपोर्ट में उल्लेख किया गया है कि औसतन, 2008 और 2020 के बीच औसतन लगभग 3.73 मिलियन लोग विस्थापित हुए, जिनमें से अधिकांश मानसून के दौरान बाढ़ से हुए।

In rural India, people are hiding their Covid-19 infection because of mistrust in the health system

In an interview, two doctors describe the gaps in rural health infrastructure amid the second wave of the pandemic. The number of Covid-19 cases is easing off across India but not as rapidly in rural as in urban India. Some numbers themselves are under a cloud, particularly in areas where the quality of reporting is not good. A recent Centre for Science and Environment report said that rural districts had seen almost 52% of Covid-19 deaths and 53% of new cases in May 2021, based on a sample study. It also said that community health centres in rural districts needed 76% more doctors, 56% more radiographers and 35% more lab technologists, which illustrates the nature and extent of the problem. To understand what India can do to improve hard and soft infrastructure in rural areas, we spoke with two doctors who have been working on some of these challenges. Rajani Bhat, consultant pulmonologist from Bengaluru, is a postgraduate from the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York and an American Board of Medicine-certified doctor in pulmonary diseases and critical care medicine. Pavitra Mohan, based in Udaipur, is co-founder of Basic Healthcare Services, a non-profit that has been working primarily in southern Rajasthan. He has an MBBS and MD from Delhi University and a master’s in public health from the University of North Carolina. He has worked extensively in community-based primary health care and nutrition. Edited excerpts: Dr Mohan, as you look back over the past two months of the second Covid-19 wave, what can you tell us about the behaviour of the virus and people’s response, particularly in rural India? PM: One thing is clear that the virus has spread much more rapidly in this wave compared to the past wave and there have been no divides between urban and rural, or rural and deep rural, or deep rural and tribal areas. The infection has spread in the [remotest] areas, which was not the case the last time. So in some ways, it is actually the first wave for the deep rural and tribal areas. Last year, there was no wave for them, it was largely restricted to urban areas. Some spread happened when the migrants started returning. After a month [of nationwide lockdown], when they were allowed to come back, there was a slight surge, but it was not really a wave, it was probably a small ripple. So for [deep rural areas], it is actually the first full-blown wave. The virus has spread much more and much deeper this time and has not followed any boundaries of urban, rural or tribal. The way people have responded to [the second wave] has been guided by a lot of fear and also a lot of mistrust of public healthcare systems. I think this led to a situation where the combination of fear and mistrust meant that people stayed indoors. They would not go out to access healthcare, and especially not from the public healthcare systems at all. They would seek care from whatever was available closer by, but avoided the public healthcare systems in general. This is the scene in areas that we work in. I’ve heard similar things from other people working in similar rural and tribal areas elsewhere. [Where did] the mistrust have its origin? I think, in general, there has been a mistrust of the public system for a long time in rural areas, partly guided by the fact that services, especially curative services, have not been responsive. Wherever there are strong public health systems, that is not the case. There is greater trust and that continued. Advertisement The [mistrust] was further accentuated by the fact that last year when people, especially the migrants returning from the cities, were isolated and forcibly quarantined, that led to a fear of the government and public health systems in particular, and of the disease. [The fear was that] if you said you had Covid-19 or were found to have the disease, then you’ll be shifted away. This was of course fueled by social media, news and reports of people dying and all kinds of myths and misconceptions also being propagated through social media. But its roots lay in the distrust and the fear of being isolated and quarantined. Also, this time, when vaccination started in January before the second wave began, coercion was used to promote vaccination among those who initially had vaccine hesitancy. [Hesitancy] is not uncommon when you’re introducing a new vaccine, especially for adults. Vaccine hesitancy is common in all populations. But mistrust deepened because people were coerced and told that if they don’t take a vaccine, your name would be removed from old age pension or from the public distribution system. That mistrust, coupled with fear, led to a situation where people stayed indoors. They feared disclosing anything about the disease, or going to a public health system, which in any case they had limited access or response to. That led to quite a bit of delay or absence of care-seeking. A lot of people continued to be indoors even when deaths happened. When they had started slipping, they would still want to stay where they were rather than going to a government hospital in a far-off city. There are of course structural issues which were always there, of distances, of not enough money to reach a large hospital. But it was added to by fear and distrust. So people could have gone to a public health system and gotten a bed or oxygen if they needed it, yet they did not go? PM: That’s right. There are two scenarios here. One is people who had mild infections who did not really require to go to any [facility], but required support, advice and medication to manage Covid-19 at the household level, or in a setting where they could isolate themselves. Even accessing advice and support for home care is something that they resisted, because of the fear of being found out that they are Covid-19 positive and therefore being isolated and separated from the family. Even when frontline government health workers like ANMs or ASHAs would visit their homes, they would withdraw and not disclose [their illness] and would not want to even receive the medication or advice that was being given. In the second scenario, where people were moderately or severely ill and started slipping and could reach the hospital, the whole fear of going to a hospital was huge. I was in a debate where [people] were saying why is it that you did not see pictures of people in a hospital in rural areas asking for beds, or oxygen, etc. The reason is that they did not reach the hospitals and often would become severely ill [and] either recover or die at home. Advertisement Dr Bhat, tell us about your experiences in this context and the Covid-19 toolkit or resources you’re working on. RB: Dr Mohan has raised all the relevant points that come up in the challenges that we face in implementing science-based protocols, which are useful for the rural health set-up. There are so many challenges in terms of lack of infrastructure, manpower and training. Added to all that is the problem of mistrust and misinformation, which has been a huge problem not just in rural but also in urban areas. We’ve seen rumour-mongering and myths and fallacies spreading much faster than the solid scientific evidence that needs to be propagated better. In order to counter that, a group of us have come together to form the Swasth Community Science Alliance. It was born as an organic effort of clinicians and practitioners on the ground, along with physicians, scientists, health economists and people with experience in public health or global health. It is looking to address these challenges of how to help implement the best practices in rural areas where it is most useful. One challenge is that when we come up with evidence-based medicine practices, these are sometimes formulated in areas that have access to the best facilities. So, you put a cut-off point of say, [an oxygen] saturation level for which one must seek hospital attention. One has to keep in mind that there’s a lag time in rural areas, where it might take six to eight hours to reach that medical attention. One has to adapt evidence-based guidelines and protocols to take the kind of time constraints that people have in rural areas into account. Then there are the kinds of instructions that are available. Is it a medium of instruction that’s easily accessible to the ASHA and ANM workers who are embedded in the community, whom the people trust? What are the resources available? In response to the rising Covid-19 numbers in rural areas, we’ve seen a wonderful surge of support from community, corporates, nonprofits and charitable organisations coming to the aid of government health services, by providing material resources. You mentioned that India also lacks manpower and training. To that end, what we’re looking to do is provide a suite of toolkits that are easy to understand and access for people in rural healthcare services. This is an alliance in the truest sense because we are guided by serious experienced practitioners on the ground like Dr Mohan. It’s only based on the feedback of the challenges on the ground that we get from them that we are able to formulate certain training modules which can potentially help us to counter these problems. Can you illustrate the key communication areas that you’re focusing on? Do these toolkits apply uniformly across India or are there other situations that you have to adapt to? RB: There are definitely some parts which are universal and adaptable to all parts of India. In the conversations that we’ve had with people practising on the ground, be it from Maharashtra, or Nagaland, or Tamil Nadu or Karnataka, some challenges and practices remain the same across the board. Advertisement Our focus has always been on trying to make sure that we first eliminate any harmful practices. One challenge is that there’s been a lot of different medications and polypharmacy that’s been thrown at Covid-19. What we’ve learned over the past year is that the old gold standard practices, the best supportive practices for any viral illness, still hold true and that’s something that the system is ready to deal with. It’s just about removing misinformation and myths and enforcing what we can do and implement well with the people we have on the ground. In terms of challenges, they are universal, some are local, some degree of trust issues will be local, according to community practices. But that’s where the partners on the ground come in and help us. We have toolkits that will help us provide home monitoring services, so an ASHA worker or community health volunteer should be able to help families in their communities be aware of what to watch out for, and build trust in order to ensure that monitoring continues and is relayed to the medical officer they report to. The idea being that Covid-19 is a disease where the majority of patients are asymptomatic or mild. So early on when their oxygen saturation is dropping and in moderate illness, even if the district hospitals are overloaded, there is potential for having Covid-19 treatment facilities that can provide oxygen and basic medications and still allow for a much better outcome for patients. It’s really a sad state of affairs that we’re seeing patients not seeking help because of fear and mistrust, as Dr Mohan pointed out. That’s the part that we want to address. There is a large chunk of patients that we can help just by bridging that gap. Tell us one finding from your research or conversations with doctors across the country which surprised you and to which your toolkits or resources are responding. RB: One thing that surprised us is the fact that a lot of people think that complicated medications are essential. But we realise that [Covid-19 care] is really a lot about sticking to the basics. It’s about good monitoring of vitals. It’s about educating people about simple preventive practices, awareness about masking, early identification of symptoms, removing stigma and fear associated with the disease, doing symptom control with simple things like paracetamol for fever, simple practices like prone positioning for improving oxygen, these are the things that are really valuable. We know that it’s only in certain patients whose oxygen levels are low that you need steroids. So we are making sure that that kind of information is available, where you tell people that you don’t need these expensive medications, that it’s a very small minority of patients who need it. The part that’s been really important in our work has been to first propagate the do-no-harm practices, to not prescribe these drugs. And it’s really been heartening to see the DGHS (Director General of Health Services) recommendations that have come out recently and are very supportive of the best practices that have stood the test of time over decades.

मई 2021 में कोविड संक्रमण और मौत का हर दूसरा मामला ग्रामीण भारत से था

'स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरनमेंट 2021' की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक पिछले महीने 53% नए मामले और कोरोना वायरस के कारण 52% मौतें भारत के ग्रामीण इलाकों में हुईं है। चिंता की बात यह है कि ग्रामीण भारत में स्वास्थ्य कर्मियों की बेहद कमी है। सीएचसी स्तर पर 76.1 प्रतिशत विशेषज्ञ डॉक्टरों की कमी है। देश की दो-तिहाई आबादी वाले ग्रामीण भारत में कोविड-19 महामारी की दूसरी लहर का बहुत बुरा प्रभाव पड़ा है। नई दिल्ली स्थित पर्यावरण अनुसंधान संगठन सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (सीएसई) की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार मई 2021 में देश में दर्ज किए गए कोरोना संक्रमण के हर दूसरे मामले और मौत भारत के ग्रामीण जिलों से हैं। सीएसई की नई रिपोर्ट 'स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरनमेंट 2021' इस बात पर ध्यान दिलाती है कि मई के पहले 26 दिनों में, वैश्विक स्तर पर हर दूसरे नए कोविड-19 मामले और संक्रमण के कारण हर तीसरी मौत भारत में हुई है। इसका मतलब यह भी है कि पिछले महीने (मई) दुनिया में दर्ज किया गया हर चौथा मामला ग्रामीण भारत का था। गांव कनेक्शन देश भर के गाँवों में कोरोना संक्रमण के बढ़ते मामलों पर लगातार रिपोर्ट कर रहा है। एक तरफ, ग्रामीण भारत में कोविड के मामलों में लगातार बढ़ोतरी हो रही थी, वहीं दूसरी तरफ वहां टेस्ट सुविधाओं, कोविड वार्डों और बुनियादी स्वास्थ्य सेवाओं की भारी कमी थी। ग्रामीणों और स्वास्थ्य क्षेत्र के विशेषज्ञों का दावा है कि ग्रामीण भारत में दर्ज की गई कोविड मौतों की संख्या वास्तविक मौतों की तुलना में बहुत कम है। कुछ जगहों पर जिला प्रशासन ने दावा किया कि वहां हो रही मौतें प्राकृतिक थीं, वहीं परिवार के सदस्यों का कहना था कि मृतक को कोविड के लक्षण थे। परीक्षण की कमी और इसके साथ ही डर के कारण, अन्य बातों के अलावा, ग्रामीण जिलों में बढ़ती मौतों के वास्तविक कारण का पता लगाना मुश्किल है। फिर भी, उपलब्ध आंकड़ों के आधार पर मामले की गंभीरता को समझा जा सकता है। गांवों में स्वास्थ्य कर्मियों की कमी ग्रामीण भारत में कोविड के हमले को संभालना बेहद मुश्किल है क्योंकि वहां बुनियादी स्वास्थ्य सेवाओं की भारी कमी है। भारत में ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य सेवा प्रणाली तीन स्तरों पर संचालित होती हैं - उप-केंद्र, प्राथमिक स्वास्थ्य केंद्र (पीएचसी), और सामुदायिक स्वास्थ्य केंद्र (सीएचसी)। एक उप-केंद्र 5,000 लोगों की आबादी के लिए होता है, वहीं एक पीएचसी में 30,000 लोग और सीएचसी के अंतर्गत 120,000 लोग आते हैं। हालांकि, 'स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरनमेंट 2021' रिपोर्ट ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य बुनियादी ढांचों की कमी को दर्शाती है। इस रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक मार्च 2020 तक उप-केंद्र और पीएचसी स्तर पर 14.1 प्रतिशत एएनएम (सहायक नर्स दाइयों), 35 प्रतिशत पुरुष स्वास्थ्य कर्मियों और 7 प्रतिशत डॉक्टरों की कमी है। सीएचसी स्तर पर स्थिति और भी खराब है। आंकड़ों के मुताबिक यहां 78.9 फीसदी सर्जन, 69.7 फीसदी प्रसूति एवं स्त्री रोग विशेषज्ञ, 78.2 फीसदी चिकित्सक और 78.2 फीसदी बाल रोग विशेषज्ञों की कमी है। इसके मुताबिक ग्रामीण भारत में विशेष स्वास्थ्य देखभाल के लिए सीएचसी स्तर पर 76.1 प्रतिशत विशेषज्ञों की कमी है। 29 मई को गांव कनेक्शन ने एक रिपोर्ट में बताया था कि ग्रामीण उत्तर प्रदेश में कई उप-केंद्र और पीएचसी की स्थिति कितनी बदहाल है। रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक स्वास्थ्य केंद्रों के भवन जर्जर हो चुके हैं, छतें टपक रही हैं, दरवाजे गायब हैं और वहां पर्याप्त कर्मचारियों का भी अभाव है। सीएसई की हालिया रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि भारत को कम से कम 38 प्रतिशत अधिक सीएचसी की जरूरत है, जो कि ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य बुनियादी ढांचे का पहला स्तर है। यहां ग्रामीण आबादी को विशेषज्ञ डॉक्टरों और रेडियोग्राफरों की सुविधा मिल पाती है। यह रिपोर्ट बताती है कि अखिल भारतीय स्तर पर देश को 24 प्रतिशत अधिक उप-केंद्रों और 29 प्रतिशत अधिक प्राथमिक स्वास्थ्य केंद्रों की आवश्यकता है। वर्तमान में, ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य बुनियादी ढांचे में ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य केंद्रों में डॉक्टरों और विशेषज्ञों जैसे लैब तकनीशियनों और रेडियोग्राफरों की भारी कमी है। गांव कनेक्शन ने 6 मई को जिला अस्पतालों में वेंटिलेटर की उपलब्धता को लेकर भी एक पड़ताल किया था। इस रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक जिला अस्पतालों में या तो वेंटिलेटर नहीं हैं या हैं भी तो वे अपर्याप्त और खराब हैं। इसके साथ ही अस्पतालों में उन्हें संचालित करने के लिए प्रशिक्षित तकनीशियनों की भी भारी कमी है। मानव संसाधनों की भारी कमी सीएसई द्वारा किए गए डेटा विश्लेषण से पता चलता है कि पुडुचेरी और मिजोरम में सीएचसी स्तर पर एक भी विशेषज्ञ डॉक्टर उपलब्ध नहीं है। गुजरात और त्रिपुरा में सीएचसी में ऐसे डॉक्टरों की 99 फीसदी कमी है। वहीं मेघालय और मध्य प्रदेश में 96 प्रतिशत कमी है। अधिकांश भारतीय राज्यों में भी सीएचसी में रेडियोग्राफरों की कमी है। इस मामले में बिहार में सबसे ज्यादा 95 फीसदी, केरल में 94 फीसदी, नागालैंड में 86 फीसदी और उत्तराखंड में 84 फीसदी की कमी दर्ज की गई है। रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक अखिल भारतीय स्तर पर सीएचसी में रेडियोग्राफरों की 56 प्रतिशत कमी है। इसी तरह पीएचसी में डॉक्टरों की भी भारी कमी है। केंद्र शासित प्रदेश लद्दाख में पीएचसी में 69 फीसदी डॉक्टरों की कमी है और वहीं छत्तीसगढ़ में 51 फीसदी की कमी है। उत्तर प्रदेश में पीएचसी डॉक्टरों की केवल 4 फीसदी कमी है। अखिल भारतीय स्तर पर पीएचसी डॉक्टरों की 7 फीसदी कमी है। इस बीच, पीएचसी और सीएचसी दोनों में लैब तकनीशियनों की भी कमी है, जिसमें हिमाचल प्रदेश (93 प्रतिशत) में सबसे अधिक कमी है, इसके बाद उत्तराखंड में 81 प्रतिशत और राष्ट्रीय राजधानी दिल्ली में 80 प्रतिशत की कमी है। अखिल भारतीय स्तर पर सीएचसी और पीएचसी में लैब टेक्नीशियन की 35 फीसदी कमी दर्ज की गई है। यह बात सबको पता है कि ग्रामीण भारत में स्वास्थ्य सेवाओं के बुनियादी ढांचे में कई कमियां हैं। पिछले महीने कोविड-19 की दूसरी लहर के दौरान यह कमी और उभर कर सामने आई। समय रहते इन्हें दुरुस्त करने की बेहद जरूरत है।

Behind the Scene on Achieving ‘Net Zero’ Emissions in India

‘In five years we can say no new coal production, in another five no utilisation’ While a number of governments have announced major commitments to cut down their domestic carbon emissions, these efforts will not be enough to bring global energy related emissions to Net Zero by 2050 says a recent report by the International Energy Agency, an OECD intergovernmental headquartered in Paris. Announcing Net Zero commitments has become a voluble part of global discourse on the ongoing environmental catastrophe. Beside the IEA, institutions like the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change maintain that any efforts to arrest and reverse global warming must address emissions made by the energy sector, estimated to contribute over two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. In its report released last month the IEA recommends a pathway for countries to embark on a “cost-effective and economically productive” transition to Net Zero energy emissions within 30 years. “In this pathway, two‐thirds of total energy supply in 2050 is from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and hydro energy. Solar becomes the largest source, accounting for one‐fifth of energy supplies,” the report imagines. Acknowledging some key uncertainties, it says all countries shouldn’t be expected to reach net zero emissions at the same time. For instance, a recent analysis shows that if the United States were to wait till 2050 to become carbon neutral it would consume 22% of the carbon budget remaining for the whole world, if the average temperature rise is to be kept within 1.5°C of the preindustrial level. “At many places in the IEA report, it clearly states that a one size fits all approach does not work,” said Dr Vaibhav Chaturvedi, fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water and author of a CEEW study outlining multiple pathways for India to attain net zero emissions. Chaturvedi agrees that different countries would need to set different deadlines and targets. “This is what it means to have equitable and just climate mitigation.” The IEA’s pathway to net zero envisions that beyond projects already committed in 2021, no new oil and gas fields will be approved for development, and that “no new coal mines or mine extensions are required” to meet the world’s projected energy needs. The roadmap also recommends halting any new investment in unabated coal plants, saying that advanced economies must phase out unabated coal plants by 2030 and developing economies by 2040. Although coal abatement relies on many unproven and untested technologies, the demand has already created a stir, with governments in Japan and Australia have announcing their disagreements with the report. The IEA also published an India Energy Outlook report in February. Asked whether India will be able to shift away from fossil fuels rapidly, Chaturvedi said it depends on whether the Indian government adopts a Net Zero commitment, which it has yet to do. It would involve committing to a peak year, when domestic emissions start to decline, as well as a deadline for achieving carbon neutrality. Despite the noise about India’s ambitious commitment to renewables, Chaturvedi points out that “Of course renewable energy is growing fast, but that does not mean fossil fuel is declining. We see all these parallel multiple investment projects going on in the coal sector and in fossil energy.” In India, according to OECD data, fossil fuels accounted for 54% of the total energy consumption in 1990. By 2014 their share had rapidly increased to 74%, compared to a world average of 80% and declining. The media recently reported that publicly owned Coal India Ltd had approved an investment of about $6.4 billion or ₹47,000 crore on mining projects meant to replace fuel imports. This will include expansion plans for 24 existing mines, and eight new projects it claims will produce 81 million tonnes of coal from April 2023. The Indian government also began the second tranche of auctions for commercial coal mining in March, offering 67 mines for sale in an attempt to end Coal India’s monopoly. “We have no alternative. Even if we add 450 gigawatts [of renewable energy] by 2030 to our system it is still not going to meet our energy demands,” says Samrat Sengupta, program director for climate change and renewable energy at the Centre for Science and Environment. The pandemic has led to a downgrade in estimates of future energy demand. The IEA thinks energy demand in India will increase by 35% in the coming decade, whereas earlier it had declared 50% growth in the same period. As for production capacity, a pre-pandemic estimate by the International Renewable Energy Agency says India’s installed power capacity may nearly triple in the coming decade to 670 gigwatts, from 284 gigawatts in 2015. Much of this growth involves the transfer of public money through government investment or tax subsidies to coal mining, oil and gas drilling, thermal power plants, or ecologically destructive hydropower dams. “Subsidies matter because they are used by governments around the world to influence energy producers and consumers,” explains a CEEW study last year which mapped energy subsidies in India. It found that the Indian public subsidised renewable energy (including hydropower) to the tune of INR 9,930 crore in 2019, up threefold since 2014. Yet public subsidies for oil, gas and coal were nearly nine times higher, at INR 83,134 crore in 2019. These it says are due mostly to the increase in crude oil prices and growing consumption of LPG. Saying no to coal is “half a decade early for us,” says Samrat Sengupta. He emphasises that it is not possible to suddenly shut down coal mines because they employ a large number of people, and there has to be a proper transition movement. He thinks the “First target should be the coal power plants which have crossed their technical lifetime. It should be immediately shut off and in five years we can say no new coal production and in another five, no new coal base utilisation.” Yet data available on the Union coal ministry’s website show that coal extraction in India is growing, having increased by 34% in just the last decade. In 2011 miners extracted 533 million tonnes of coal, whereas last year the extraction amounted to 716 million tonnes. Meanwhile the renewable energy sector is also being grown. In the last five years installed capacity in renewables increased by 226% according to the Union renewable energy ministry. Yet the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption has been decreasing, from 59% in 1990 to 32% in 2017. These figures include hydropower, and as The Citizen reported people are now also being displaced from their land without their consent by solar power producers working with the government. On the government’s aim to produce 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, Sengupta thinks “the present pathway is showing that India can achieve the target of 450 GW if we effectively address the storage issue and supply security of the technology”. He emphasised the need for R&D investment in energy storage technology, which will be a crucial part of the energy mix. Energy storage systems can play an important part in grid integration, and can help electric systems become flexible, for instance by storing the electricity produced during sunny periods and feeding it back to the grid later. According to Vaibhav Chaturvedi, the Indian government has framed its climate leadership in terms of renewable energy penetration. He says this framing will drive the government’s actions, and doing well in renewable energy will help it be recognised as a global climate leader. “That is why you see so many ambitions on renewable energy, be it the 2022 target or 450 GW for 2030. These targets are very bold and whenever you see Indian leaders speaking at climate summits, you will see them repeating these targets,” he tells The Citizen. With the government mum on a peak year for emissions or a deadline to achieve carbon neutrality, Chaturvedi points out that none of its stated targets talk about Net Zero either, for now. Some 110 governments have already made such commitments including big polluters like the US, UK, China, Japan and the EU. Carbon emissions per person remain low in India, at 1.82 tonnes in 2016 compared to a global average of 4.55 tonnes. As a result, despite its large population India’s share of global energy related carbon emissions is just 4.4% of the total, according to the NITI Aayog. But with India set to become the world’s third largest energy consumer by 2030, owing to rising standards of living and increased industrial activity, there is a compelling case to shift towards less harmful forms of energy. Among the challenges in transitioning to clean energy, Sengupta emphasises the need to locally produce clean energy technology. “80% of the solar cells and modules [panels] are imported from across the border. We must take that extra burden on our consumers’ shoulders and push for development of supply security.” As we wait for international commitments to be backed up by effective action, in India Chaturvedi thinks people should better understand Net Zero. He points out that hard analysis is missing, making it difficult for an informed consensus to emerge. “It is extremely important to start the process. After doing an analysis and engaging with all the relevant decision makers, the government should take a call. Net Zero by 2050 is very tight, of course, due to a lot of challenges, but it is not undoable.”

Sunita Narain appointed to climate action group

‘Her experience includes a South Asian perspective with its many challenges’ Noted environmentalist Sunita Narain has been appointed to an international advisory group for climate action by Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation Per Olsson Fridh. The international group consists of experts who provide a “deep commitment and knowledge in the field”, said a statement issued after the announcement. “I am happy that Sunita Narain of the Centre for Science and Environment has been appointed to the Minister’s international advisory group for environment, climate and biodiversity. Sunita’s broad and very relevant experience also includes a South Asian perspective with its many challenges,” said Swedish ambassador Klas Molin. The group aims to “further strengthen” Swedish government’s attempts to address climate change and conserve biodiversity. “Strong global action on these issues is necessary for sustainable and equitable development, and to prevent conflicts and new pandemics,” said the statement.

Delhi: No extra space, rejig of existing resources to clear parking maze

NEW DELHI: The draft Master Plan for Delhi 2041 emphasises rationalising parking in the city. Unlike MPD 21, which stressed on creating more parking spaces, including multi-level parking lots, the draft for 2041 suggests maximising the utility of existing parking spaces through reorganisation of the facilities, using concepts like rating/indexing areas on the basis of public transport accessibility level and regulating on-street parking. MPD 41 also strongly supports congestion pricing, variable parking rates and staggered peak hours for different uses to manage parking demand and to increase parking revenue. The draft plan has received mixed reaction from experts. While some defined the suggestions as “progressive”, others pointed out how there were no provisions for incentivising parking projects and increasing floor area ratio, without which problems were certain to arise in the future. Anumita Roy Chowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy, Centre for Science and Environment, appreciated the effort of Delhi Development Authority to rationalise parking supply and promote the users pay principle. “The draft plan is dynamic and based on the public transport accessibility of a locality rather than have a uniform plan for the whole city as in the earlier MPD,” said Chowdhury. “The Public Transport Accessibility Index (PTAI) concept rates/indexes neighbourhoods on the basis of access to public transport. This concept has also been related to the transit-oriented development (TOD) policy. We also welcome DDA’s Parking Area Management Policy.” Chowdhury was also part of the PAMP project. She added, “To reduce street parking, the emphasis is on using multilevel/ stack parking lots to full capacity. The draft MPD also talks about development of PAMP by RWAs in residential areas.” Talking of PAMP in Lajpat Nagar III, among the first residential areas in the city where the concept was implemented in 2019, the residents’ welfare association’s president, S B Singh, said, “It’s difficult to implement such plans fully because people are reluctant to park their vehicles far from their homes. But yes, even if 50% of the plan is implemented, residents benefit in the long term.” Some civic officials, however, felt the draft MPD offered nothing new in terms of increased parking space in Delhi. “It only talks about discouraging use of private vehicles and regulating existing parking spaces through the PTAI scheme, which is a hypothetical situation,” said one official. “The plan does not even lay down the steps to be taken in case of violation of norms. The draft MPD also suggests linking registration of new vehicles to availability of owner parking facilities in order to regulate street parking. But who is going to physically check the availability of parking space at the applicant’s same site or that it is not being used by some other person already?” Another civic official said, “Demand for parking can’t be saturated overnight. In MPD 21, at least 24 sites were specified for developing multi-level parking lots, but not even 10 have been constructed due to objections. The draft MPD 41 doesn’t permit use of parks or vacant sites for developing new parking lots or encourages investment through relaxation in floor area ratio.”

All 10 glaciers in J&K melting, need constant monitoring

More alarming evidence has come to fore that Jammu and Kashmir is sitting on an imminent climatic disaster. The bad news has come both from a central government report as well as from the well-known Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSW). According to the CSE report, all the 10 glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir are among the 39 glaciers in India that have been found to be at high risk. As per the report, these glaciers are melting fast, with 40 percent increase in their water levels recorded in the last decade. “They need to be monitored closely to avoid any disasters,” the report warns. The Monitoring of Glacial Lakes & Water Bodies in the Himalayan Region report by the Department of Water Resources, Government of India, has also recommended that “these Glacial lakes & water bodies require continuous monitoring in order to avoid any future disaster.” So, what can this change in glacier conditions do to life on earth? Researchers have found that it can first land and fill up the space that creates glacial lakes. Second, it can cause floods beyond control of existing infrastructure. An example of this was witnessed in February this year, when a piece of a glacier broke off high in Uttarakhand’s Himalayas, causing a deadly flash flood that smashed through a hydroelectric power plant. It destroyed many homes, too. Two persons from JK, including a Kashmir-based engineer, died in the incident in which more than 70 people lost their lives. In another report, the CSE has shown what climatic disasters have already done to people. Its State of India’s Environment Report 2021 says that 39 lakh people in India were displaced in 2020 due to climate disasters and conflicts and violence related to the environment. Most of the displacements occurred due to major climate disasters like avalanches and landslides, which frequently happen in Jammu and Kashmir. “India is also prone to other sudden and slow-onset hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclones, storm surges and droughts,” the report says. On average, around 3.73 million people a year were displaced between 2008 and 2020, the majority by flooding during the monsoon, the report mentioned.

वायु प्रदूषण के कारण उत्तरप्रदेश के बाद महाराष्ट्र में होती है सबसे ज्यादा मौत

डिजिटल डेस्क, नई दिल्ली। वायु प्रदूषण ने आम लोगों के स्वास्थ्य को नुकसान पहुंचाकर गत कुछ वर्षों में न केवल आर्थिक बोझ को बढाया है बल्कि यह घातक और जानलेवा भी साबित हो रहा है। वायु प्रदूषण के कारण सर्वाधिक मौतें देश के महज पांच राज्यों में हुई है, जिसमें सबसे ज्यादा मौतों का एक बड़ा हिस्सा उत्तरप्रदेश के बाद महाराष्ट्र में दर्ज हुआ है। दिल्ली स्थित विज्ञान एवं पर्यावरण केन्द्र के एक ताजा अध्ययन में दावा किया गया है कि वायु प्रदूषण के कारण देश के पांच राज्यों में समयपूर्व मौतें और रुग्णता बढ़ी है।विज्ञान एवं पर्यावरण केन्द्र के स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरमेंट 2021 नामक अध्ययन के मुताबिक भारत में 2019 में 1.67 मिलियन लोगों की मौतों का कारण वायु प्रदूषण रहा है। इनमें 50 फीसदी यानी 851698 मौंते देश के पांच राज्यों में ही हुई है। इन पांच राज्यों में उत्तरप्रदेश, महाराष्ट्र, बिहार, पश्चिम बंगाल और राजस्थान शामिल हैं। वायु प्रदूषण के सर्वाधिक भुक्तभोगी यह पांच राज्य न केवल बड़ी आबादी वाले हैं बल्कि इन राज्यों में प्रति व्यक्ति आय भी बेहद कम है। वायु प्रदूषण से इन राज्यों में समयपूर्व मौतें और रुग्णता बढी है, जिससे इन राज्यों को 2019 में 36,803 अमेरिकी डॉलर की लागत का नुकसान उठाना पड़ा। महाराष्ट्र में वायु प्रदूषण से 16.7% मौतें आंकडें बताते है कि महाराष्ट्र में वायु प्रदूषण से 16.7 फीसदी (139,118 मौतें) हुई है। वहीं, आर्थिक जोखिम की बात करें तो यहां वायु प्रदूषण से 3975.40 अमेरिकी डॉलर की क्षति हुई जो राज्य के जीडीपी का 1.06 प्रतिशत है। वायु प्रदूषण अकाल मृत्यु का चौथा सबसे बड़ा कारण स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरमेंट 2021 रिपोर्ट के अनुसार वर्ष 2019 में उच्च रक्तचाप, तबांकू के इस्तेमाल और कुपोषित आहार के बाद वायु प्रदूषण ही पूरी दुनिया में अकाल मृत्यु का चौथा सबसे बड़ा कारण रहा है। वहीं, 2019 में 19 लाख मौतों में 58 फीसदी मौतें बाहरी वायु प्रदूषण के कारण हुई है, जबकि 36 फीसदी मौतें भीतरी यानी घर के भीतर होने वाले वायु प्रदूषण के कारण हैं। घर में वायु प्रदूषण का सबसे बड़ा कारक प्रदूषित ईंधन से खाने का पकाया जाना है। 2019 में वायु प्रदूषण के यह नतीजे नए नहीं है बल्कि बीते कुछ वर्षों से यह प्रवृत्ति चली आ रही है। वहीं, स र्वाधिक चिंताजनक बात यह है कि इसके शिकार बच्चे होते है। अध्ययन में 1990 से 2018 तक के उपलब्ध ग्लोबल बर्डन डिजीज (जीबीडी) के आंकडों के हवाले से बताया गया है कि पांच वर्ष से कम उम्र के बच्चों को ही सबसे ज्यादा वायु प्रदूषण जनित निचले फेफडों का संक्रमण (एलआरआई) होता है। एलआरआई के संक्रमण से 1990 में 202.20 फीसदी (5.66 लाख मौतें) हुई थी जो कि 2017 में 17.9 फीसदी तक ही पहुंची। यानी करीब तीन दशक में एलआरआई से मौतों की फीसदी में होने वाली गिरावट की रफ्तार बेहद मामूली है। साफ है कि इस दिशा में प्रयास बुहत धीमे किए जा रहे है।

Sunita Narain appointed to International Advisory Group for environment, climate & biodiversity

India’s Sunita Narain – Environmentalist, Writer and Director General of The Centre for Science & Environment, has been appointed to an international advisory group for action on environment, climate and biodiversity launched in connection with World Environment Day. She was appointed by Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation Per Olsson Fridh. After successive meetings between the member countries in the next months, a detailed strategy of the SAF Ambassador Group will be launched at COP 26 later this year. 5 nations including UK, Singapore launch initiative on reducing global aviation emissions, check details This group helps Sweden’s efforts to address the halt of biodiversity, depletion of ecosystems and most importantly climate change. It has international experts who provide a deep commitment and knowledge in the field, which is very important as strong global action on these issues is needed which will help in sustainable and equitable development. And will also prevent new pandemics and conflicts. On the appointment of Sunita Narain, the Ambassador of Sweden Klas Molin in India said, “Her broad and very relevant experience also includes a South Asian perspective with its many challenges.” According to Sunita Narain, who is also editor, Down to Earth magazine, said: “COVID-19 and climate change both teach us that the world is interdependent and we need global cooperation to find solutions that are equitable and transformative. By setting up this advisory group, the Swedish government has once again shown its willingness to engage with diverse voices to find solutions that will work for all.” Under the leadership of Ms Narain, the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) was awarded the Stockholm Water Prize in 2005. The Centre’s work on rainwater harvesting showed many new ways in which people could survive during water scarcity. Who are the other members of the group? Olof Skoog, Head of the European Union delegation to the United Nations in New York, Swedish diplomat; Wanjira Mathai, Regional Director for Africa at the World Resources Institute think tank; Ili Nadiah Dzulfakar, climate activist and founder of Klima Action Malaysia; Ulrika Modéer, UN Assistant Secretary General and Director of the United Nations Development Programme’s Bureau of External Relations and Advocacy, former State Secretary at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs; and Peter Winsor, Professor of Oceanography and Director of the World Wildlife Fund’s Arctic Programme. When will the first meeting take place? The first (informal) meeting of the advisory group is expected to take place in early autumn and will be led by Minister Fridh.

एनवायरनमेंट रिपोर्ट: देश में बढ़ते तापमान के कारण हर साल आ रहे हैं तूफान, आधा डिग्री बढ़ोतरी भी है खतरनाक

सीएसई की स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरनमेंट 2021 रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, वर्ष 2010 से वर्ष 2020 तक का वक्त सबसे गर्म दशक रहा है। वर्ष 1901 से 1910 तक सालाना औसत तापमान 25.26 डिग्री सेल्सिसियस रहा... विश्व में बढ़ते तापमान का असर अब भारत के मौसम पर दिखाई देने लगा है। देश में एक सौ बीस वर्षों में औसत वार्षिक तापमान आधा डिग्री से ज्यादा बढ़ा है। इसी बढ़ते हुए तापमान असर है कि ताउते जैसे तूफान हर वर्ष तेजी से ताकतवर हो रहे है। सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरनमेंट (सीएसई) द्वारा जारी स्टेट ऑफ इंडियाज एनवायरनमेंट 2021 रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, वर्ष 2010 से वर्ष 2020 तक का वक्त सबसे गर्म दशक रहा है। वर्ष 1901 से 1910 तक सालाना औसत तापमान 25.26 डिग्री सेल्सिसियस रहा। जबकि वर्ष 2011 से 2020 में यह 25.84 डिग्री हो गया। इसमें करीब 0.58 डिग्री की वृद्धि हुई है। भारत में सभी तरह के मौसम में तापमान पहले की तुलना में ज्यादा बढ़ा हुआ नजर आ रहा है। सभी महीनों में पहले से ज्यादा गर्म हो रहे है। रिपोर्ट में यह भी बताया गया है कि इन दिनों बहुत तेजी से ग्लेशियर पिघल रहे है। वहीं बर्फ की परतें भी पहले की तुलना में मोटी नहीं जम रही हैं। पर्यावरण विशेषज्ञों के अनुसार, आज तापमान में आधा डिग्री बढ़ोतरी भी बेहद ज्यादा है और जलवायु परिवर्तन का स्पष्ट संकेत है। आज देश के विभिन्न हिस्सों में ये बढ़ोतरी अलग-अलग हो रही है। कुछ क्षेत्रों में तापमान डेढ़ डिग्री से ज्यादा है तो कहीं कम। जहां जहां तापमान में बढ़ोतरी हुई है वहां असर ज्यादा देखने को मिल रहा है। पहले सर्दियों का तापमान 20.37 होता था जो 20.95 डिग्री सेल्सियस हो गया हैं। मानसून के दौरान 0.49 और मानसून के बाद 0.67 डिग्री सेल्सियस की बढ़ोतरी दर्ज हुई है।

90% of India’s biodiversity hotspots lost, shows new statistical analysis

A report published by Centre for Science and Environment pointed out that 16 states have witnessed a significant rise in number of forest fires as well as warmer than usual winter, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. India has lost 90% of the area under its four biodiversity hotspots, with the Indo-Burma hotspot taking the worst hit, a report released by Centre for Science and Environment on Tuesday showed. India has four biodiversity hotspots, including the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Indo-Burma region and the Sundaland, that hosts numerous endemic species. Around 24.46% of the country’s geographical area covered by forests and trees. However, the report released by New Delhi-based public research and advocacy group said the extent of vegetation in the Indo-Burma hotspot has been reduced from 2,373,057 square kilometre to a mere 118,653 square kilometre, pegging a loss of 95%. The report, titled State of India’s Environment in Figures 2021, shows at least 25 species have also gone extinct in these hotspots. The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List monitors 1,212 animal species in India and have tagged 12% as endangered. There is drama in numbers, especially when these numbers give you a trend on things getting better or worse. It is even more powerful when you can use the trend to understand the crisis, the challenge and the opportunity,” CSE director general Sunita Narain said. The CSE report points out that 16 states – including Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand – have witnessed a significant rise in number of forest fire alerts. “India has seen a drastic rise in forest fires since the start of 2021. As of May 1, the number of fire alerts recorded by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is 433,581. This is quite a jump, even though the official forest fire season of the country is from February to June. Forest fires are influenced by temperature and rainfall in the preceding monsoon. The year 2016, the hottest on record when India’s annual temperature rose 0.71°C above the annual average of 25°C, saw 541,135 forest fires -- the most in a decade,” the report read. At a time when we are witnessing an alarming fall in the timber and non-timber forest produce services in Indian forests -- implying overuse of resources -- climatic cycles are combining with other factors to result in a dramatic rise in forest fire alerts. We must learn to connect the dots,” said Richard Mahapatra, the managing editor of Down To Earth magazine published by the CSE. The report adds: “Rainfall during the 2015 monsoon was 765.8 mm, 14% less than the normal 880mm, as per the India Meteorological Department. In 2021, too, India sees unusually warm weather along with 8.7% surplus rainfall last monsoon that leaves adequate humidity for fires to spread.” India experienced warmer than usual winter, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in 2020, which was also the eighth warmest year on record, with 2016 being the warmest, followed by 2009 and 2017. The annual mean land surface air temperature for India in 2020 was 25.78°C, which was 0.29°C above the 1981-2010 period average.

Green and blue... two colours that will shape Delhi’s future

NEW DELHI: The green and blue infrastructure — Delhi’s green belts and waterbodies — will play a key role in shaping its future, the draft Master Plan for Delhi 2041 envisages, focusing not only on their protection but also on increasing their net area. The draft plan states these assets will help in mitigating climate change and play a key role in reducing air, noise, water and soil pollution. A database will be maintained by the government and Delhi Development Authorty to periodically assess their “health”. To bring people closer to these natural assets, MPD 41 aims to provide public access to a few by developing them as recreational sites consisting of “interactive” zones where temporary activities such as yoga, nature classes, environmental research, picnics, camping and biodiversity tours will be permitted. Buildings will face these green-blue assets and maintain active faces in the form of balconies, windows and pedestrian entries. Cycleways and walkways in and around these sites have also been encouraged. For the Yamuna, a 300-metre-wide green buffer will be required along the edge, with a 30-metre area left for grasses and ground cover, while development of 75-100-metre-wide greenways with cycling and walking trails have been suggested. However, no permanent structure will be allowed in the floodplain. “The health of all environmental assets shall be monitored from time to time,” the draft plan states. Growth in Delhi’s green cover will be carried out by using only native plants and species, which will act as pollution filters, while techniques such as Miyawaki forests and smog absorption towers can be adopted at hotspots. A “tree directory” will also be maintained, with each agency identifying unique tree corridors or heritage trees in its area. Pavements, roads and roofs will be constructed or coated with light-coloured materials, with a high albedo value wherever possible. “This can reduce local temperature by 3-5 degrees Celsius. Road sections shall include appropriate trees and buffers to reduce air and noise pollution, as well as sustainable urban drainage components.” To further reduce air pollution, MPD 41 prescribes adoption of mix-use and transit-oriented development to reduce average trip lengths and bring jobs and homes closer to transit networks. Anumita Roy Chowdhury, executive director of research and advocacy at Centre for Science and Environment, says for the first time, new principles of urban planning have been adopted explicitly to control vehicular pollution, which is a good sign. “However, there is still scope and need for further tightening of the action targets for all pollution sources and overall air quality,” she said.

All 10 glaciers in J&K melting fast, need ‘continuous monitoring’

SRINAGAR: More alarming evidence has come to fore that Jammu and Kashmir is sitting on an imminent climatic disaster. The bad news has come both from a central government report as well as from the well-known Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSW). According to the CSE report, all the 10 glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir are among the 39 glaciers in India that have been found to be at high risk. As per the report, these glaciers are melting fast, with 40 percent increase in their water levels recorded in the last decade. “They need to be monitored closely to avoid any disasters,” the report warns. The Monitoring of Glacial Lakes & Water Bodies in the Himalayan Region report by the Department of Water Resources, Government of India, has also recommended that “these Glacial lakes & water bodies require continuous monitoring in order to avoid any future disaster.” So, what can this change in glacier conditions do to life on earth? Researchers have found that it can first land and fill up the space that creates glacial lakes. Second, it can cause floods beyond control of existing infrastructure. An example of this was witnessed in February this year, when a piece of a glacier broke off high in Uttarakhand’s Himalayas, causing a deadly flash flood that smashed through a hydroelectric power plant. It destroyed many homes, too. Two persons from JK, including a Kashmir-based engineer, died in the incident in which more than 70 people lost their lives. In another report, the CSE has shown what climatic disasters have already done to people. Its State of India’s Environment Report 2021 says that 39 lakh people in India were displaced in 2020 due to climate disasters and conflicts and violence related to the environment. Most of the displacements occurred due to major climate disasters like avalanches and landslides, which frequently happen in Jammu and Kashmir. “India is also prone to other sudden and slow-onset hazards, including earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclones, storm surges and droughts,” the report says. On average, around 3.73 million people a year were displaced between 2008 and 2020, the majority by flooding during the monsoon, the report mentioned.

COVID-19 puts no brakes on India's zeal to fight climate change, but not all steps are emission-free

Balancing development, economy and controlling carbon emissions is like walking on a razor edge for a country like India, but India will have to keep fighting climate change challenges for its own people and for the world at large As this copy was being written on Wednesday (9 June, 2020), Mumbai was reeling under a spectacularly drenched monsoon debut for this year with Santacruz recording 164.8 mm and Colaba registering 32.2 mm of rains till 4 pm respectively. Amid the promising signs of a bountiful monsoon, however, there are harsh realities that the country increasingly cannot ignore. "Heavy rain events have increased threefold since 1950, but total precipitation is declining: a billion people in India currently face severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year," said an ODI working paper The costs of climate change in India authored by Angela Picciariello, Sarah Colenbrander, Amir Bazaz and Rathin Roy. The ODI working paper goes on to say, "Rainfall is expected to continue declining, and both snowfall and glaciers in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya are diminishing. Consequently, the flow of water in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers is projected to fall by 8.4 percent, 17.6 percent and 19.6 percent, respectively, by mid-century, compared to the turn of the millennium.... If it slips below a critical value, the circulation of the summer monsoon may collapse. Such a catastrophic climatic shift would massively increase water scarcity and reduce agricultural output across India." Climate conundrum "India is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, and people live on marginal lands or in coastal and delataic cities where they are at greater risk. Floods, regional droughts, cyclones, and earthquakes affect millions of Indians," said a commissioned research report India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 by the National Intelligence Council of the US government. However, it will be wrong to say that India is sitting idle on the climate front. "There are both external and domestic dimensions to India’s Climate Change policy which has been articulated through two key documents. One is the National Action Plan on Climate Change(NAPCC) adopted on 30 June, 2008. The other is India’s Intended Nationally Determined Commitments (INDC) submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 2 October, 2015," former foreign secretary Shyam Saran wrote in a piece India’s Climate Change Policy: Towards a Better Future. The NAPCC outlines eight national missions on climate change. They are: (1) National Solar Mission (2) National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (3) National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (4) National Water Mission (5) National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system (6) National Mission for a Green India (7) National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (8) National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change The NAPCC shows intent on cushioning the impact of climate change and India did not allow its mission to derail because of the COVID-19 pandemic. "Since the COVID-19 pandemic struck, India has allocated at least $35.37 billion of its fiscal stimulus package to clean energy, including renewables (especially solar power) and energy efficiency. Still, more public support has gone to green transport, afforestation and other spending consistent with low-carbon development," the ODI working paper said. While this is a welcome spirit, there were other steps as well that were relatively regressive that were taken during the pandemic period. "Yet, as of April 2021, $29.02 billion had also been allocated in ways that encourage high-carbon production and consumption. For example, funding has been provided for a new coal-fired thermal power plant in Bihar and to purchase new equipment for coal production," the working paper said. Independent scientific analysis Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates India's Intended Nationally Determined Commitments (INDC) target as “2°C compatible” signalling the country's climate commitment in 2030 to be a fair share of global effort based on its responsibility and capability, but still short of the Paris Agreement. "While no new coal power stations have been built in 2020, the government is encouraging more coal mining and increased coal production which is not consistent with a green recovery. India needs to develop a just transition strategy to phase out coal for power generation before 2040," said a CAT observation on India. Although keeping coal out of the picture is an ideal situation for meeting emission targets, in reality, it is a near-impossible option even by the government's own admission. "Everyone wants quality, uninterrupted power; but no one wants a power plant in their neighbourhood. Farmers and green activists oppose coal and nuclear power plants as being polluting and taking away useful cultivable land. But, coal and nuclear plants are inevitable, since solar, wind and other renewables cannot supply dependable power," Dr CBS Venkataramana, additional secretary, Department of Atomic Energy said in his presentation India’s Energy Challenges. Nevertheless, India has many laws and statutory bodies that help the country in cutting down carbon emissions in various aspects. Laws and guidelines like the Electricity Act, 2005; Tariff Policy, 2003; Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Act, 2006; New and Renewable Energy Policy, 2005; Rural Electrification Policy, 2006; Energy Conservation Act, 2001; Biodiesel Purchase Policy; Energy Conservation Building Code, 2006; Bachat Lamp Yojana and 50,000 MW Hydroelectric Initiative, 2003, are among such initiatives. Then there are statutory bodies like the National Clean Development Mechanism Authority and Designated National Authority. On the international front, India's initiative resulted in a common statement at the first Conference of the Parties that became the basis for the Berlin Mandate. Agony in economy Climate change is an ongoing cycle and without our actual realisation, the lives of human beings are getting affected in a big way. The day-to-day weather behaviour that we witness can actually have long-term impacts challenging not only our physical survivability but also crunching the economy. "Climate change is already slowing the pace of poverty reduction and increasing inequality in India. The districts that have warmed the fastest have seen GDP grow on average 56 percent less than those that have warmed the slowest. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rising average temperatures may actually reverse the development gains of recent decades," the ODI working paper said. "At the lower end of the spectrum, predictions show that climate change could reduce India’s GDP by around 2.6 percent by 2100 even if the global temperature increase is held below 2°C; however, this rises by up to 13.4 percent in a 4°C scenario." Unbelievably, the working paper, citing Nixon 2020, claimed that had it not been for the current costs of global warming, India’s GDP would have currently posted around 25 percent higher. However, it also leaves a grim warning that "with 3°C of warming, it will be 90 percent lower in 2100 than it would have been without climate change." Balancing development, economy and controlling carbon emissions is like walking on a razor edge for a country like India. "Developing countries have only recently set out on the path of industrialisation. That is the reason why their per capita emissions are still comparatively low. Under these circumstances, any limit on CO2 emissions amounts to a limit on economic growth," said a UNDP paper Climate Change: Perspectives from India authored by Sunita Narain, Prodipto Ghosh, NC Saxena, Jyoti Parikh and Preeti Soni. Consequently, the international negotiations under the UNFCCC, also known as the Kyoto Protocol, "aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere have turned into a tug of war with rich countries unwilling to ‘compromise their lifestyles’ and poor countries unwilling to accept a premature cap on their right to basic development". The math is very simple. Economic development is still calculated by per capita CO2 emissions. The funding for renewable energy sources is also far from easy from generating. "India has set an ambitious target of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, which needs an additional $100 billion in financing. The figure is estimated to increase to $450 billion by 2030, according to a United States-based think tank Climate Policy Initiative. Project financing in India is expensive. Interest rates are much higher compared to developed economies. While large companies and conglomerates find it easier to raise funds because of the size of their balance sheets but it is incredibly challenging for smaller developers to borrow," said a Mercom India paper. According to Global Change Data Lab, 2021, India is not responsible for rising temperatures because despite being home to 17.8 percent of the world’s population, the country accounts for only 3.2 percent of cumulative emissions. Yet, there is no reprieve to its economy. "The economic costs associated with more frequent and severe heatwaves in India’s cities, changing rainfall patterns and accelerated snow and glacier melt, which are contributing to both flooding and water shortages, and steadily rising sea levels on India’s long coastline, which are exacerbating the impacts of storm surge and tropical cyclones," said the ODI working paper. A living hell Diverse geography and climate patterns, make India a vulnerable theatre for the ill-effects of climate change to unfold. "Climate change, adding to existing problems of the agricultural system, may worsen conditions for the large poor segment of the population enough to severely tax the economic and industrial resources of the central and state governments," said a commissioned research report India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 by the National Intelligence Council of the US government. In a rather grim observation, it further said, "Where adaptive capacity is low, the potential is greater for impacts to result in displaced people; deaths and damage from heat, floods, and storms; and conflicts over natural resources and assets." India has a huge poor population and insulating from the impact of climate change is a daunting task. "It should be kept in mind that the most vulnerable to climate change are the poor in India. Unfortunately, their assets and livelihoods are tied to climate-sensitive factors of production. Therefore, greater political and bureaucratic attention is needed to diversify their livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability," said NC Saxena in his piece for UNDP, Climate Change and Food Security in India. According to the ODI working paper, India is already experiencing the consequences of 1°C of global warming. "Extreme heatwaves, heavy rainfall, severe flooding, catastrophic storms and rising sea levels are damaging lives, livelihoods and assets across the country. Looking forward, the human and economic costs of climate change will only increase," it said. No easy path ahead India has an unenviable task of charting a middle path that is acceptable both at the domestic and international front. "Greater and imaginative governmental intervention would also need an efficient and professional administration that is tuned to the emerging but uncertain crises caused by global warming and climate change," said Saxena in his article Climate Change and Food Security in India. How difficult are negotiations in the international arena was proved when the then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton through an op-ed article sought to club India and China under one umbrella and make them follow the same carbon emission control benchmark which is otherwise only applicable for only developed countries. However, at times, India also misjudges situations in its enthusiasm to push forward its agenda. "In the zeal to argue its position, India at times even appeared to verge on climate denial, taking the same side as the US, Saudi Arabia and similar others in negotiations.... If India does indeed take on achieving an equitable climate agreement as its main goal, its negotiating stance and related diplomacy would have a very different orientation and purposefulness," wrote D Raghunandan in his piece Rethinking India’s Climate Policy and the Global Negotiations for Oxfam India. There will be successes and drawbacks, strategies wrong and right in the path ahead, but India will have to keep fighting climate change challenges for its own people and for the world at large.

L’Inde compte désormais plus d’ouvriers agricoles que d’agriculteurs. Depuis 2017, les mobilisations des agriculteurs ne font que croître

Par la rédaction de Down to Earth Depuis 2017, les protestations des agriculteurs en Inde ont été multipliées par cinq. De 34 protestations majeures à travers 15 Etats en 2017, le nombre est maintenant passé à 165 protestations à travers 22 Etats et territoires de l’Union, selon le groupe de réflexion Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), basé à New Delhi. Chaque jour, plus de 28 ouvriers agricoles et cultivateurs se suicident dans le pays. En 2019, il y a eu 5 957 suicides d’agriculteurs, ainsi que 4 324 ouvriers agricoles supplémentaires qui sont morts par suicide. Aujourd’hui, l’Inde compte plus d’ouvriers agricoles que d’agriculteurs dans 52 % des districts du pays. La population des ouvriers agricoles a dépassé celle des agriculteurs et des exploitants. Le Bihar, le Kerala et Puducherry comptent plus d’ouvriers agricoles que d’agriculteurs dans tous leurs districts. Ces statistiques, publiées par le CSE à l’occasion de la Journée mondiale de l’environnement, montrent une chose: l’Inde est assise sur une énorme bombe à retardement de crise et d’inquiétude agraires, et la montre tourne. La publication, intitulée State of India’s Environment in Figures 2021, est un recueil annuel de données et de statistiques sur les questions clés de l’environnement et du développement. Sunita Narain, directrice générale du CSE, a déclaré: «Les chiffres ont un effet dramatique, surtout lorsqu’ils vous donnent une tendance, à savoir si les choses s’améliorent ou se dégradent. C’est encore plus puissant lorsque vous pouvez utiliser la tendance pour comprendre la crise, le défi et l’opportunité.» «C’est d’autant plus évident quand on voit l’état des registres fonciers et leur entretien dans le pays», a déclaré Richard Mahapatra, rédacteur en chef de Down To Earth. «Notre analyse montre que dans 14 Etats indiens on a assisté à une détérioration de la qualité de leurs registres fonciers.» Selon Sunita Narain: «A une époque où la qualité des données dont nous disposons est généralement médiocre – elles sont soit manquantes, soit indisponibles publiquement, soit de qualité douteuse – une collection comme celle-ci peut être immensément utile, en particulier pour les journalistes. L’amélioration de la qualité des données n’est possible que si nous les utilisons à des fins politiques». Elle a cité le cas de la pandémie de Covid-19: «Considérez simplement combien nous avons souffert au cours de l’année écoulée parce que nous ne disposions pas de données suffisantes ou précises sur les tests, ou le nombre de décès, ou les enquêtes sérologiques, ou le séquençage génomique des variants. Dans chaque cas, les données auraient été (et sont) essentielles à l’élaboration des politiques.» Elle ajoute que la collecte de données est importante. Mais il est tout aussi important que des ensembles entiers de données soient partagés et travaillés afin qu’ils puissent être critiqués et, grâce à ce processus, utilisés et améliorés, a-t-elle ajouté. (Article publié sur le site du bimensuel DownToEarth en date du 8 juin 2021; traduction rédaction A l’Encontre)

Master Plan aim: Green Capital, 24x7 economy

In terms of land management, the draft MPD-2041 focuses on reviving old neighbourhoods (unauthorised colonies, urbanised villages), allowing mixed-use development, providing affordable rental and small-format housing. A 24-hour culture and business environment, more green spaces and water bodies, lower pollution emissions, and more accessible housing are among objectives in Delhi Development Authority’s (DDA) Master Plan for 2041, a set of guidelines meant to underpin policies for housing, construction, transport, and environment over the next 20 years. The Master Plan of Delhi-2041, at present a draft uploaded online for public comments on Wednesday, has identified a need to improve the city’s economic, creative and cultural opportunities, as well as make it ecologically sustainable while accounting for the projected growth of population to 29.2 million over the next two decades. Delhi’s population as of 2021 is estimated to be 20.6 million, the document said. Work on the 2041 Master Plan began in 2017, and while a top DDA official described it as a “vision to foster a sustainable, liveable and vibrant Delhi by 2041”, citizen groups and experts said the blueprint at present is vague and ambitious, and must instead set a more clear roadmap, particularly in the area of pollution. This plan is for the city’s future for the next two decades. The vision is to foster a sustainable, liveable and vibrant Delhi by 2041. There are several policies and norms that have been introduced to achieve this. Now that it is public domain, we want more and more people to give their feedback on it after which public consultations would be held to finalise the plan,” said DDA vice-chairman Anurag Jain. In terms of land management, the draft MPD-2041 focuses on reviving old neighbourhoods (unauthorised colonies, urbanised villages), allowing mixed-use development, providing affordable rental and small-format housing. A significant proposal is also for DDA to end its role as a real estate developer, and instead take on responsibilities of a “facilitator” and a “regulatory” with the construction and development instead being given to private companies. “A paradigm shift is envisaged in the supply scenario, with the private sector leading the development/redevelopment of housing over the plan period. Public agencies shall play the role of a ‘facilitator’ and ensure ease of doing business, through appropriate regulatory environments,” the document added. On public transit, it seeks to improve walkability and non-motorised transport, while on the ecology, it envisions the development of a green-blue (green spaces and waterfronts) infrastructure for sustainable development. But the sector where some of the major changes are proposed is the city’s economy. MPD-2041 proposes a shift from manufacturing to clean industries such as knowledge and cyber, and a push to foster a “Night-Time Economy” (NTE). “Nodes, precincts or circuits shall be identified for continuing work, cultural activity and entertainment at night to attract tourists and locals,” the plan said. It also added a new section to propose policies that build in “pandemic resilience”. These measures include reducing settlement densities to support the requirement of social distancing during pandemics, creation of multi-facility plots (particularly in dense unplanned areas) that can be temporarily repurposed along with other government facilities to reduce vulnerability to pandemics. MPD-2041 has been drawn up by DDA and the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA) after wide consultations with experts, residents, traders and other stakeholders last year. The plan will be sent to the Union housing and urban affairs ministry for notification after more public consultations, and DDA expects it to be notified by the end of 2021. The MPD in force was for objectives till 2021. It’s core focus areas were environment, mobility, shelter, trade and commerce. According to DDA officials, some of the key new policies may include the forming of a Green Development Area, which will allow development in green belts and major changes in the development control norms – which could become controversial from an environment protection perspective. Environmentalist Diwan Singh said that the policy will only result in rampant commercial activities in greenbelt villages. “These are the green buffers of the city. What’s left if development is allowed in these villages? Instead provisions should be made that villagers can get revenue eco-system services or eco-friendly activities, etc,” he said. The MPD-2041 also proposes that local bodies and the tourism department identify nightlife circuits (NCs) and permit extended timings for socio-cultural activities. For this, low-frequency public transport should be made available, it adds. “Cities should consciously support night-time economies and active nightlife. On the one hand, it will support numerous economies that can thrive at night, for instance, cultural activities, certain industries, logistics, etc. thereby helping stagger work timings and reduce congestion on roads. This will also substantially increase productive use of city resources by utilising city infrastructure throughout the day, resulting in higher economic output. On the other hand, night life can also provide interesting options for citizens to participate in recreational, cultural and creative activities after standard work hours,” said NIUA director Hitesh Vaidya. Vaidya said the “pandemic has shown that it cannot be business as usual anymore”. “There is a need for the integration of health services with other city infrastructures. There is a need for detailed neighbourhood planning,” he added. The MPD-2041 abandons the provision for Local Area Plans, which was mandated in the MPD-2021, and the DDA now plans to develop layouts that will be more detailed and map all infrastructure. The proposed development of green-blue corridors will focus on improving drains and river waterfronts, and allow regulated development in green belt villages while preserving eco-cultural assets. With dust pollution being one of the major contributors to air pollution, the plan has proposed that infrastructure agencies should prepare a dust management plan and get it approved by competent authorities. Shortage of housing is also a pressing concern that the MPD focuses on. The DDA’s land pooling policy, which was approved in 2018, will make way for development of 1.7-2 million dwelling units in the outskirts of the city. The new Master Plan further pushes for rental housing and small format housing complexes. “This is being done to provide affordable housing to a large section of people. An online portal giving information regarding availability, location, rentals, etc, shall be created,” said an official, who asked not to be named. Like MPD-2021, this plan, too, focuses on congestion pricing in busy business districts, restricting on-street parking, and preparing market management plans in residential and commercial areas. In the transport sector, there is a major thrust on promoting electric mobility, revival of the Ring Rail network, promoting cycling by developing dedicated corridors, and provisions for starting premium bus services on busy routes. With e-commerce business picking up, DDA official quoted above said the authority has identified a need to streamline the freight logistics and distribution network to support this new business model. MPD-2041 also has a detailed plan for monitoring the implementation of the Master Plan. DDA officials said that they have baseline data of all important sectors and to assess progress, three monitoring committees -- Environmental Sustainability Committee, Built Environment Committee and City Vitality Committee – will keep tracking related metrics. Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director (research and advocacy), Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said that this time, DDA has ensured that there is a multi-sector understanding of the environment crisis Delhi is facing. But, she added, the Master Plan could be pushed further by setting tighter deadlines for managing polluting sectors to ensure early and efficient results. “What needs to be appreciated is that environment is not seen as a stand-alone category, each segment of the document, such as transport, industries, water management, links to the overall environmental issue. Finally, we are also recognising the multi-sectoral role in pollution and this will help us tackle this problem better,” Roychowdhury said.