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India’s capital Delhi faces infrastructure, cost issues in transport sector’s green transition

NEW DELHI: Pollution has long been a major headache for residents in the Indian capital of New Delhi. The situation has only worsened after India last year became the third largest automobile market globally, behind only China and the United States. While the country holds great market potential for automakers, the development is not good news for its capital where traffic pollution is already a problem. To address this, the city’s government has put in place a policy to promote the use of electric vehicles (EVs), including using it for public transport. But there are further challenges in the way as India pursues its electric dreams, said observers. ELECTRIC SOLUTION TO POLLUTION New Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world, and among the government’s plans to tackle the issue is pushing for a switch towards EVs. In a city known for traffic chaos and traffic pollution, the emblematic rickshaws have been the most successful in driving green change on the roads. The group has the highest EV adoption rate, though rickshaws constitute only 16 per cent of all of Delhi’s vehicles. Currently, almost one in every 50 rickshaws plying the streets of the Indian capital is powered by electrical energy. Ms Sunita Choudhary, who was the first female auto-rickshaw driver in Delhi when she started out 19 years ago, has seen the transition of the vehicles, from those running on traditional fuel, then to compressed natural gas (CNG) and now on electric batteries. While she is happy that her vehicle is emission-free, she said the facilities set up by the government for recharging or exchanging the rickshaw batteries are not adequate. "If we get green batteries (from battery exchange points), then the rickshaw can run longer. If we get orange coloured batteries, those run for a lesser duration,” Ms Choudhary told CNA. “Green batteries run for 80km. If we don’t get green batteries then we have to change batteries three times a day. Sometimes there are very long lines in these stations too." GREENING THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SECTOR The Delhi government has ambitious EV plans, aiming to have one out of every four vehicles sold in the Indian capital to be an EV by this year. A big part of the policy is in accelerating the green transition in mass public transportation. Currently, 800 of the 3,700 buses run by the Delhi Transport Corporation are electric, making Delhi the city with the largest number of electric buses in the country. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi had set a target for a third of all new vehicles in the country to be electric by 2030.\ But while Delhi is leading the way in EV adoption, experts said that it will face problems in sustaining the broader EV transition. Delhi’s EV strategy focuses on retrofitting or converting existing eligible fuel-run vehicles to battery-operated ones, but it has not seen many takers during the testing phase. "It's just too expensive to install a new electric powertrain on an old vehicle. And then if it doesn't make sense, that is why it hasn't taken off,” the Centre for Science and Environment’s head of electric mobility Moushumi Mohanty told CNA. “So the government is right now thinking of subsidising this system. If that happens, let's see how it works." The Delhi government is also pushing for a boost in EV adoption rate among commercial four-wheelers. It has given targets to all commercial aggregators involved in passenger, delivery and good carrier services, for a mandatory transition from fuel or CNG, to electric. "I think April 1, 2030 onwards, all vehicles which are on the platform of any aggregator have to be an electric vehicle. They have to plan the entire programme. We have given yearly targets also. I think the first year is starting from 5 per cent (to) 10 per cent. Then every year you go on increasing by 25 per cent,” Delhi’s Transport Minister Kailash Gehlot said. “Within a period of the next four to five years, the new induction in the fleet has to be electric. And maybe an additional two years for the old fleet which is already doing business, (after which) they have to convert the old vehicles also to electric by 2030." INFRASTRUCTURE INADEQUATE Mr Gehlot added that creating adequate EV infrastructure in Delhi is a problem his government is still trying to overcome. "I think the biggest challenge is acquiring the bus or the vehicle. Because it's a new technology, even the manufacturers are facing a lot of issues,” he said, adding that batteries are mostly being imported from other countries such as China.

Uttarakhand experienced 1006 forest fire incidents in last two months: FSI Data

Forest fire incidents are on the rise annually in various regions of the country, including North India’s hilly areas. While these incidents typically peak during the summer, this year has seen a surge during the winter season as well. The Forest Survey of India (FSI), a body under the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, reports that Uttarakhand experienced 1006 fire incidents from November 1, 2023, to January 1, 2024. This marks a significant increase from the previous years, which saw around 556 incidents during the same timeframe. A previous study indicated that forest fires negatively impact the microorganisms residing in these areas, inhibiting their growth. The study suggested that understanding the transformation of microorganisms post-fire could aid in predicting the response of bacteria and fungi to environmental shifts. Research has shown a significant alteration in microorganisms following a severe fire. Over a year, researchers examined how bacterial and fungal communities flourish in the leaf litter of burned areas. The study discovered that the microorganisms emerging on the soil surface varied with weather changes and plant resurgence. Dispersal primarily influenced the composition of these microorganisms. The MSystems journal published this research. The Forest Survey of India (FSI) reports that this winter season has seen forest fires in nearly all districts of Uttarakhand, including Uttarkashi, Nainital, Bageshwar, Tehri, Dehradun, Pithoragarh, Pauri, and Almora. Forest fires increasing, funding decreasing According to data presented to the Parliament on July 20, 2018, forest fire incidents in India have seen a 1.5-fold increase over six years, reaching 35,888 incidents. Experts attribute this rise to extended dry spells, particularly during winter and pre-monsoon periods, resulting from increased warming. The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), an environmental research advocacy, has found that India’s annual mean temperature has risen by 1.2°C since the start of the 20th century. Interestingly, despite a 125% surge in forest fires between 2015-17, the funds allocated to states and union territories for forest protection measures have seen a 21% decrease, amounting to Rs 34.5 crore. In 2017, the earlier Intensification of Forest Management Scheme (IFMS) was superseded by the Forest Fire Prevention and Management (FPM) scheme. As per the guidelines of the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change, the Centre contributes 100% of the share for union territories, 90% for northeastern states, and 60% for other states. Uttarakhand forest fire driving forces Human activities cause nearly 95% of forest fires in India, either accidentally or intentionally. Common causes include grazing, sparks from vehicles, outdoor activities, shifting cultivation, and burning litter like pine needles. Human activities near roads and settlements in Uttarakhand often link to forest fires. People intentionally set fires to rejuvenate grazing lands and biomass in chir pine forests. During summer, locals burn the heavy leaf litter on the forest floor, releasing nutrients that promote the growth of edible fungi, which is in high demand in local markets. Forests are prone to fires due to the presence of dry vegetation biomass. High temperatures and low humidity, along with high solar radiation, create favourable conditions for forest fires. In Uttarakhand’s deciduous forests, 25% of total fire events occur due to the humid undergrowth that can prevent fire. However, in coniferous forests, 75% of fire events occur due to the high resin content in tree trunks and availability of dry leaves for fuel. Forest fire monitoring in Uttarakhand shows that chir pine forests are most susceptible to fires, followed by dry deciduous scrub forest. This is due to the high availability of surface fuel in the form of dry needles, high temperatures, and high char content. The number of forest fire incidents in chir pine forests varies due to changes in solar light availability on southern and western aspects in their elevation zones. Steep slopes and strong winds in the mountains can spread fire, causing damage to oak forest crowns and rhododendrons. Traditional land management changes, including less regular use and controlled burning due to urban migration, contribute to Uttarakhand’s forest fires. Additionally, rising temperatures, noted as the main cause of severe fire events across India in 2009, 2010, and 2012, escalate their intensity and spread. Global forests store huge carbon Forests around the world store a massive amount of carbon, totaling 638 gigatons, with 80% in the form of terrestrial vegetation biomass carbon. Over the last 25 years, there has been a reported decline of 11 gigatons in global forest biomass carbon stock. In India, the total carbon stock in forests was estimated at 7,044 million tonnes, with an increase of 103 million tonnes reported between 2011 and 2013. Carbon in forest ecosystems is found in various pools, including living aboveground and belowground biomass, dead organic matter like deadwood, and litter and soil as soil organic matter. However, forest fires contribute significantly to carbon dioxide emissions, with 98.11 teragrams per year, mostly from tropical dry deciduous and tropical moist deciduous type forest fires. Uttarakhand’s varied forests, covering 45% of the state, include types like tropical, sub-tropical pine, and alpine. These ecosystems contribute around 2.4 billion US dollars to the state’s economy annually. Forest fires have been a significant issue in Uttarakhand, with an increasing number of incidents recorded from 922 in 2002 to 41,600 in 2019. The forest fire season in the state is longer than in Himalayan and non-Himalayan states, peaking in late April and late May or early June. These fires result in the loss of valuable timber, pose a threat to endangered species, and cause extensive damage to forest ecology and the landscape. In 2019, Tehri Garhwal district reported the highest number of forest fires (8,555), while Rudraprayag district reported the fewest (39).

Improvement in Delhi's annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17 halted in 2023, says CSE report

Delhi-NCR recorded the longest spell of ‘very poor’ or worse air quality and the maximum number of smog episodes in November and December 2023 in the last six years, according to a new analysis. The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), an independent think-tank that analysed pollution data for Delhi-NCR, said the gradual long-term improvement in annual PM2.5 levels since 201517 halted in 2023.

नवंबर-दिसंबर 2023 के दौरान दिल्ली-एनसीआर में पिछले 6 सालों में सबसे ज्यादा प्रदूषण, रिपोर्ट में हुआ खुलासा

नवंबर और दिस्मबर महीने के दौरान देश की राजधानी दिल्ली और उसके आसपास का एनसीआर इलाका प्रदूषण के लिए बदनाम है। अब इसी को लेकर एक रिपोर्ट आई हिया, जिसमें बताया गया है कि नवंबर-दिसंबर 2023 के दौरान पिछले 6 साल में सबसे ख़राब स्थिति रही है। एक रिसर्च के अनुसार, दिल्ली-राष्ट्रीय राजधानी क्षेत्र (एनसीआर) में पिछले छह वर्ष में नवंबर और दिसंबर 2023 में ‘बहुत खराब’ या बदतर वायु गुणवत्ता का सबसे लंबा दौर और ‘स्मॉग एपिसोड’ की स्थिति रही। बता दें कि स्मॉग एपिसोड की स्थिति वह होती है जब कम से कम तीन या अधिक दिन तक लगातार वायु गुणवत्ता ‘गंभीर’ श्रेणी में होती है। दिल्ली-एनसीआर के प्रदूषण आंकड़े का विश्लेषण करने वाले एक स्वतंत्र थिंक-टैंक ‘सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरमेंट’ (सीएसई) ने कहा कि 2015-17 के बाद से पीएम 2.5 के वार्षिक स्तरों में क्रमिक दीर्घकालिक सुधार 2023 में रुक गया। विश्लेषण के अनुसार ऐसा गर्मियों और मानसून के सामान्य से अधिक साफ मौसम के बावजूद हुआ और उत्तरी राज्यों में पराली से निकलने वाले धुएं में काफी कमी आई। 2015-17 के बाद से इसके पीएम2.5 के वार्षिक स्तरों में गिरावट हो रही थी सीएसई ने कहा कि इस साल दिल्ली के प्रदूषण को बढ़ाने वाले कारक पराली जलाने में कमी, नवंबर में अधिक बारिश और हल्की सर्दी की स्थिति के बावजूद, वार्षिक स्तर में सुधार होना चाहिए था। इसने कहा कि इसके बजाय, प्रतिकूल मौसम संबंधी स्थितियों, विशेष रूप से कम हवा की गति के कारण प्रदूषण की स्थिति खराब हो गई। दिल्ली में 2015-17 के बाद से इसके पीएम2.5 के वार्षिक स्तरों में लगातार गिरावट हो रही थी। गिरावट का यह रुझान हालांकि 2023 में रुक गया था। गर्मियों में मौसम स्वच्छ होता जा रहा वर्ष 2023 (29 दिसंबर तक) के लिए दिल्ली का पीएम 2.5 वार्षिक औसत 100.9 माइक्रोग्राम प्रति घन मीटर था, जो 2022 के मुकाबले दो प्रतिशत अधिक है। आंकड़ों के अनुसार, औसत वार्षिक पार्टिकुलेट मैटर (पीएम)2.5 सांद्रता 2018 में 115.8 माइक्रोग्राम प्रति घन मीटर, 2019 में 109.2, 2020 में 95.1, 2021 में 106.2, 2022 में 98.6 और 2023 में 100.9 थी। विश्लेषण से पता चला कि जहां गर्मियों में मौसम स्वच्छ होता जा रहा हैं, वहीं सर्दियां अधिक प्रदूषित होती जा रही हैं। सीएसई ने कहा कि 2023 में, गर्मी के महीने (मार्च से जून) 2022 की तुलना में काफी कम प्रदूषित (14-36 प्रतिशत) थे। नवंबर और दिसंबर में सबसे ज्यादा प्रदूषण इसके विपरीत, 2023 में जनवरी, नवंबर और दिसंबर के सर्दियों के महीने 2022 में इन्हीं महीनों की तुलना में बहुत अधिक प्रदूषित (12-34 प्रतिशत) थे। सीएसई ने कहा, ‘‘दिल्ली में आमतौर पर नवंबर और दिसंबर में दो बार ‘स्मॉग एपिसोड’ हुआ। वर्ष 2023 में, 24 दिसंबर तक, तीन एपिसोड हुए, और 30 दिसंबर को, दिल्ली में ‘गंभीर’ वायु गुणवत्ता का लगातार तीसरा दिन देखा गया, दिल्ली में लगातार तीसरे दिन हवा की गुणवत्ता ‘गंभीर’ रही, जो शहर में ‘स्मॉग’ की चौथी घटना है।

दिल्ली में पिछले छह वर्षों में नवंबर-दिसंबर 2023 में वायु गुणवत्ता सबसे खराब रहीः सीएसई

नयी दिल्ली, चार जनवरी (भाषा) दिल्ली-राष्ट्रीय राजधानी क्षेत्र (एनसीआर) में पिछले छह वर्ष में नवंबर और दिसंबर 2023 में ‘बहुत खराब’ या बदतर वायु गुणवत्ता का सबसे लंबा दौर और ‘स्मॉग एपिसोड’ की स्थिति रही। एक नये विश्लेषण में यह जानकारी सामने आई है। ‘स्मॉग एपिसोड’ की स्थिति वह होती है जब कम से कम तीन या अधिक दिन तक लगातार वायु गुणवत्ता ‘गंभीर’ श्रेणी में होती है। दिल्ली-एनसीआर के प्रदूषण आंकड़े का विश्लेषण करने वाले एक स्वतंत्र थिंक-टैंक ‘सेंटर फॉर साइंस एंड एनवायरमेंट’ (सीएसई) ने कहा कि 2015-17 के बाद से पीएम 2.5 के वार्षिक स्तरों में क्रमिक दीर्घकालिक सुधार 2023 में रुक गया।

Improvement in Delhi's annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17 halted in 2023 says CSE report

Delhi-NCR recorded the longest spell of 'very poor' or worse air quality and the maximum number of smog episodes in November and December 2023 in the last six years, according to a new analysis. The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), an independent think-tank that analysed pollution data for Delhi-NCR, said the gradual long-term improvement in annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17 halted in 2023. This occurred despite cleaner-than-usual summer and monsoon seasons and significantly reduced intrusion of smoke from farm fires in northern states. However, this winter witnessed unusually low surface wind speeds, trapping high levels of local pollution. Due to the impact of unusual winter levels, the overall annual levels have plateaued and worsened, reversing the gains of the long-term downward trend, the CSE said. Despite a decrease in stubble burning contributing to Delhi's pollution this year, coupled with increased rainfall in November and milder winter conditions, the annual level should have improved. Instead, adverse meteorological conditions, specifically lower wind speeds, exacerbated the situation due to persistently high local pollution, it added. Delhi had been experiencing a consistent decline in its annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17, with 2020 being the only outlier due to pandemic lockdowns. However, this downward trend halted in 2023. Delhi's PM2.5 annual average for 2023 (as of December 29) stood at 100.9 micrograms per cubic metre, marking a 2 per cent increase against 2022 and 6 per cent higher than the remarkably clean 2020. The average annual PM2.5 concentrations were 115.8 microgrammes per cubic metre in 2018, 109.2 in 2019, 95.1 in 2020, 106.2 in 2021, 98.6 in 2022, and 100.9 in 2023, according to the data. The analysis revealed that while summers are becoming cleaner, winters are becoming more polluted. In 2023, the summer months (March to June) were significantly less polluted (14-36 per cent) than in 2022. Conversely, the winter months of January, November and December were much more polluted in 2023 (12-34 per cent) compared to the same months in 2022, the CSE said. It said the maximum number of smog episodes occurred in November-December 2023, surpassing the last six years' corresponding periods. A smog episode is defined as at least three or more consecutive days with air quality in the 'severe' category. "Delhi typically experiences two smog episodes in November and December. In 2023, by December 24, there were three episodes, and on December 30, Delhi was witnessing its third continuous day of 'severe' air quality, marking the city's fourth smog episode," the CSE said. "Overall, November-December 2023 seems to have had the most consistently poor air compared to the last six winters, with minimal fluctuations in daily PM2.5 levels. The data indicates it was the longest spell of 'very poor' or worse air in the last six years," it said.

Improvement in Delhi's PM2.5 levels since 2015-17 halted in 2023: CSE

Delhi-NCR recorded the longest spell of 'very poor' or worse air quality and the maximum number of smog episodes in November and December 2023 in the last six years, according to a new analysis. The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), an independent think-tank that analysed pollution data for Delhi-NCR, said the gradual long-term improvement in annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17 halted in 2023. This occurred despite cleaner-than-usual summer and monsoon seasons and significantly reduced intrusion of smoke from farm fires in northern states. However, this winter witnessed unusually low surface wind speeds, trapping high levels of local pollution. Due to the impact of unusual winter levels, the overall annual levels have plateaued and worsened, reversing the gains of the long-term downward trend, the CSE said. Despite a decrease in stubble burning contributing to Delhi's pollution this year, coupled with increased rainfall in November and milder winter conditions, the annual level should have improved. Instead, adverse meteorological conditions, specifically lower wind speeds, exacerbated the situation due to persistently high local pollution, it added. Delhi had been experiencing a consistent decline in its annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17, with 2020 being the only outlier due to pandemic lockdowns. However, this downward trend halted in 2023. Delhi's PM2.5 annual average for 2023 (as of December 29) stood at 100.9 micrograms per cubic metre, marking a 2 per cent increase against 2022 and 6 per cent higher than the remarkably clean 2020. The average annual PM2.5 concentrations were 115.8 microgrammes per cubic metre in 2018, 109.2 in 2019, 95.1 in 2020, 106.2 in 2021, 98.6 in 2022, and 100.9 in 2023, according to the data. The analysis revealed that while summers are becoming cleaner, winters are becoming more polluted. In 2023, the summer months (March to June) were significantly less polluted (14-36 per cent) than in 2022. Conversely, the winter months of January, November and December were much more polluted in 2023 (12-34 per cent) compared to the same months in 2022, the CSE said. It said the maximum number of smog episodes occurred in November-December 2023, surpassing the last six years' corresponding periods.

New research raises fresh doubts about India’s river linking plans

In October this year, the Indian forest department gave final clearance for a project to transfer water from the Ken river as it flows through the state of Madhya Pradesh to the nearby Betwa river. The Ken-Betwa river interlink, which would involve damming the Ken and laying a canal to the Betwa, is supposed to be the first of 30 proposed river interlinks which would fundamentally transform India’s river systems. The original idea was conceptualised in the 19th century by Arthur Cotton, a British general and irrigation engineer. Cotton suggested connecting all of India’s major rivers to enable better irrigation and navigation, and to capitalise on what was seen as the paradoxical phenomenon of having floods in one part of the country while other areas faced drought. Post independence, despite official enthusiasm for large infrastructure projects, including hydropower dams, this particular approach did not gain any significant traction. In 1980 the Ministry of Irrigation (now subsumed under the Ministry of Jal Shakti) prepared a National Perspective Plan (NPP) “for transferring water from water surplus basins to water-deficit basins”, but no further government action followed. In 2002, however, APJ Abdul Kalam, who was the President of India at the time, made a speech mentioning the subject. Using the speech, Ranjit Lal, a senior lawyer to the Supreme Court, filed a public interest litigation in September 2002, and the court pronounced a judgement soon after asking for the project to be accelerated. Decisions made based on secret data In 2012, the Supreme Court came back to the subject and declared in its judgement that that “these projects are in the national interest, as is the unanimous view of all experts, most State Governments and particularly, the Central Government”. But environmental experts who were consulted on the project as members of an expert committee set up as part of the Supreme Court judgements have regularly raised concerns. The project was based on detailed hydrological and simulation studies duly accounting [for] the upstream/downstream needs, environmental flows, etc, in the Ken basin. Bhopal Singh, director general, National Water Development Agency Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, a network of activists working in the water sector, was a member of the Ministry of Water Resources’ expert committee on river interlinking from 2009 to 2011. He told The Third Pole that while most of the committee members were government appointees who agreed with the project, independent experts like him, water management pioneer Rajendra Singh and watershed conservationist Vijay Paranjape often dissented. One of the major issues for Thakkar was the use of secret hydrological data. “When I asked for the data as a member of the expert committee, I was told that the Ken is part of the Ganges basin, an international basin, and [since] hydrology figures of international basins are a state secret, these cannot be made available [even to the committee members],” he said. “The hydrology data pertaining to the Ken basin and the Betwa basin is neither in the public domain nor has it ever undergone any independent public scrutiny. In fact, the rainfall data of districts the Ken and the Betwa pass through, in the previous four years (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020), is not appreciably different. So why has the Ken basin been categorised as having surplus water?” Bhopal Singh, director general of the National Water Development Agency (NWDA) which is entrusted with the river linking project, disputes this. He told The Third Pole: “the project was based on detailed hydrological and simulation studies duly accounting [for] the upstream/downstream needs, environmental flows, etc., in the Ken basin.” “The hydrological studies were done by the National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee, and examined and reviewed by the Central Water Commission,” Singh added. The NWDA website carries a detailed project report based on a NIH study conducted in 2003-04, but the study itself is not included. Singh told The Third Pole that “the entire modelling cannot be shared”. New science may upturn old models Another urgent issue is that science has moved a far pace from Cotton’s time, and the impact of interlinking rivers may be much more complicated than was appreciated in the 19th century. Subimal Ghosh, institute chair professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay’s Department of Civil Engineering and convener of the Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, explained that atmospheric water has traditionally not been factored into consideration of water cycles. A recent study which Ghosh co-authored found that adjacent river basins do not exist in isolation, and moving water from one to another may have additional impact due to atmospheric water. The study builds on the fact that towards the end of the Indian summer monsoon, when the soil is saturated and evapotranspiration (the supply of moisture from the land to the atmosphere) is fairly high, recycled precipitation contributes to about 25 per cent of monsoon rainfall. If water from one basin were to be used to irrigate another basin, the combination of increased evapotranspiration and wind could reduce the late monsoonal rain by 12 per cent in some arid regions of the country, and increase rainfall up to 10 per cent in other parts. “Now we know for certain that altering the terrestrial water cycle can impact atmospheric processes,” said Ghosh. He argued that there is “an urgent need to include rigorous model-guided evaluation of hydro-meteorological consequences” for projects like river interlinking. In response, Singh of the NWDA said that they could not comment on a hypothetical study. “Considering the scale of meteorological and hydrological cycles in the country, these inter-basin water transfers to water-short areas are minor in nature … As far as the Ken-Betwa link is concerned, the majority of harnessed flood water shall be utilised in the Ken basin itself and some water shall be utilised to fulfil the water needs of other regions including recharge of existing tanks in the Bundelkhand region,” he added. The illusion of water surplus A deeper problem, according to Thakkar, may be that the river basins classified as having a water surplus are only regarded as such because they are less developed. He pointed out that districts in the upper Ken basin are largely devoid of water-intensive agriculture, and with few dams built for storage. In contrast, the lower Betwa runs through agricultural districts where water-intensive crops are grown, with a fair number of dams. The surplus, he said, is only an illusion created by the different levels of water utilisation in different geographies. “Now dams are sought to be built in the upper Betwa region, which will create a shortfall in the existing lower Betwa basin dams,” said Thakkar. “That shortfall is proposed to be rectified by water from the Ken basin.” In response, Singh said that the Ken-Betwa link is not only about the inter-basin transfer of water – the central premise of river interlinking from Cotton’s time to the Supreme Court decisions – but also about conserving flood water. Most rainfall occurs in a few days during the monsoon, and “there are hardly any flows in the Ken during the non-monsoon period,” said Singh. “The region is also not very rich in groundwater due to hard rock and marginal alluvium terrain. We expect this project to stabilise the availability of water and improve water management in the region particularly during drought years.” Major downstream impacts of river interlinking Singh’s vision of the total utilisation of water raises its own issues, according to Depinder Kapur, director of the water programme at the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi. “The more river waters we use for agriculture and irrigation and urban consumption, the less will be left to enter the sea, especially in peninsular India where rivers aren’t fed by Himalayan waters,” said Kapur. According to a 2018 study, if all 30 proposed river interlinking projects in the country are fully implemented, the average annual discharge by the affected basins will reduce by 73 per cent. While the study focused on impacts to wetlands and estuaries, which would be deprived of key sources of water, there would also be major ramifications for the ocean. A significant fall in the flow of fresh river water into the sea would disrupt the upper layer of water in the Bay of Bengal, which is made up of low-salinity and low-density water that helps maintain a sea surface temperature higher than 28 degrees Celsius. This high surface temperature in turn creates low-pressure areas and intensifies monsoon activity, explained Mihir Shah, distinguished professor at Shiv Nadar University and former chair of a new National Water Policy drafting committee set up by the Ministry of Jal Shakti in 2019. “Rainfall over much of the [Indian] subcontinent is effectively controlled by this layer of low-salinity water. A disruption in this layer because of the massive damming proposed by the river interlinks … could have serious long-term consequences for climate and rainfall in the subcontinent, endangering the livelihoods of a vast population.” Rivers carry more than water, and sediment would also be held back by new dams built for river interlinking. This is a critical concern for the deltas of the Ganga–Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna and Kaveri basins, home to more than 160 million people who would be deeply impacted by sea level rise due to climate change. A new study of the Ganga-Brahmaputra Delta found that the approximately 1 billion tonnes of sediment that rivers currently carry each year would increase by 34-60 per cent in the 21st century because of more monsoon rainfall. More sediment in the delta would help to offset sea level rise and naturally sustain the delta. But, as the 2018 study pointed out, if all dams involved in the proposed river interlinking projects are built, this sediment load would fall by 87 per cent. Singh of the NWDA responded by saying that sediment trapping by reservoirs and their impact on deltas was “always exaggerated without proper scientific study”. While suggesting that such impacts would be “nominal”, he told The Third Pole that the NWDA had “already initiated system studies of the proposed link projects to study the likely impact of climate change on hydrology and water availability, demand patterns, surface and ground water interactions”. Looking ahead, with the Bharatiya Janata Party having returned to power in Madhya Pradesh in the November 2023 elections, and with river interlinking having been featured in the party’s 2019 general election manifesto, it seems likely that work on the Ken-Betwa link will be prioritised as evidence of the plan making progress.

String of disasters in Himalayas should prompt urgent reconsideration of big infrastructure projects

The development strategy for the Himalayas should take into consideration the vulnerability of the region and the need for environment protection. Despite repeated warning from geologists and environmentalists about the fragile status of the Himalayas and the need for utmost caution while constructing dams, roads, power plants or tunnels, haphazard construction for energy, increased revenue from tourism and pilgrimages continues unabated. The collapse of the under-construction Silkyara tunnel on the Brahmkhal-Yamunotri highway in Uttarakhand is the latest in the chain of disasters that almost killed 41 workers who were trapped in it for 17 days from November 12. Were geologists or engineers overseeing the construction of the tunnel? Manish Khalko, the managing director of the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd, said the falling of the debris in the under-construction tunnel was a recurring feature but no one expected it would be severe enough to trap the workers inside. While it is true that the rescue of the workers was a Herculean task deserving all praise, the questions to be asked are: Why did the tunnel collapse? Was the fragility of the mountain system kept in mind while digging the long tunnel through the heart of the mountainous region? Was it preventable? Ticking time bomb In fact, with the steady decimation of forests, torrential rains and landslides becoming chronic, the government needs to relook at all its projects in the Himalayas and this includes the Char Dham Yatra route, the power projects and road widening for increased traffic. Eminent ecologist Madhav Gadgil and environmental activist Sunita Narain of the Centre for Science and Environment had warned a decade ago about over-development as a ticking time bomb. Gadgil, in his autobiographical book, A Walk Up The Hill, highlights the tremendous environmental destruction taking place across the country. He refers to the degradation of forests of Uttarakhand and the habitat of the goral and other wildlife, triggering the landslide of Chamoli in 2021 and the death of 204 people. Way back in July 2013, Narain, in a column, pointed out that extreme rain events have become frequent. On June 16, 2013, it rained without a break and some 200 mm came down within hours in a few places like Kedarnath. It brought down the mighty Himalayas. Villages were wiped out, property destroyed, roads washed away and hydro power projects damaged in Uttarakhand. “The mountains are bleeding and its people have been left battered, bruised and dead,” she wrote. Experts have repeatedly raised concern about the carrying capacity of this terrain and the slope cutting activities defying geological wisdom. The development strategy for the Himalayas should take into consideration the vulnerability of the region and the need for environment protection. Sinking Joshimath The 1976 government-appointed MC Mishra (Collector of Garhwal) Commission report as well as the 2006 report of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology had warned against construction activity in the Himalayan region and more so in and around Joshimath. Mishra’s report pointed out that Joshimath was on a deposit of sand and stone and not rock and the rivers Alaknanda and Dhauli Ganga could trigger landslides. Yet, tunnels are being blasted in the seismic zone, putting the town in great danger. Roads and other infrastructure are being proposed and dams have been built upstream. It is clear that this region cannot take anymore. So, on January 6 this year when news broke of Joshimath sinking, it shocked the world but not the people of Joshimath or the experts who had been warning of the fragility of the region. As the cracks in buildings and hotels became larger, there was an exodus. Some 4000 people had to abandon their homes and seek shelter in relief camps and negotiate for compensation. Reports of land subsidence poured in from other hill towns such as Karnaprayag, Uttarkashi, Guptkashi, Rishikesh, Nainital and Mussoorie. The number of visitors to the holy town of Joshimath are said to have doubled from 2.4 lakh in 2017 to 4.9 lakh in 2019. The pilgrim pressure to Badrinath, Kedarnath, Yamunotri and Gangotri seeking inner peace has put stress on the carrying capacity of the region. The Char Dam Yatra Project of 2016 is one of largest road widening projects of the region and seeks to convert the 889 km road linking the four holy cities from 5 metres to 10 metres. Simultaneously housing facilities were to be increased to accommodate the pilgrims. A yatra that was once undertaken on foot is now a highway pilgrimage. In addition, the bursting of an underground aquifer during the construction of a tunnel of the 520 mw Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project added to the stress of Joshimath. Satellite images released by ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre showed that the town sank by 5.4 centimetres between December 27, 2022 and January 8, 2023. In February 2023, Ravi Chopra, who headed a committee formed by the Supreme Court to examine the concerns raised on the Char Dham project, resigned disappointed on the court ignoring the panel’s advice not to increase the road width. The year 2023 has been a year of natural disasters galore in the Himalayas. In Himachal Pradesh due to excessive rainfall from April to July (in July it was over 70 percent above the average rainfall) the State Disaster Management Committee said there were 72 flash floods, 163 landslides and 110 deaths. Kullu, Manali, Shimla, Kangra and Solan were all affected. Seismologist Sunil Dhar said super saturation due to prolonged rainfall had caused massive earth movements across the region. The Himachal government is consulting experts for geological surveys, but will it abide by their advice? Teesta dam saga Take again the case of the 1200 MW dam on the Teesta River in Sikkim that got washed away on October 4 this year. Here again, civil society and activists had warned as early as 2005 that glacial lake flood was a possibility, but the project got clearance in 2006. A public hearing was held on the Sikkim floods and researcher Neeraj Vagholikar narrated the saga of the doomed dam and the floods. The river had been dammed beyond limits, ignoring the repeated warnings about the fragile eco-system of the Himalayas, the seismic sensitivity of the region and global warming leading to melting of glaciers. From 2006 to 2016 the cost of the dam had soared from Rs. 5705 crores to Rs. 13,965 crores.

2023 ended on a high pollution note, says latest CSE analysis of winter air pollution levels in Delhi-NCR January 4, 2024 by dindiaadmin

PM2.5 level 2 per cent higher in 2023 compared to 2022; 6 per cent higher compared to 2020 Winter undid the gains of summer and monsoon months — summer months of 2023 significantly less polluted (14-36 per cent) than those of 2022. But winter months more polluted (12-34 per cent Slow wind speed spiked winter concentration — November average surface wind speed in Delhi was 9.8 m/s, the lowest in last six years Despite the worsening, 2023 still had the highest number of days meeting national ambient air quality standard for 24 hours Highest number of smog episodes in 2023 winter in last six years Delhi needs deeper cuts in emissions from vehicles, industry, waste, solid fuels, and construction to meet air quality standard and prevent winter spikes due to adverse meteorological factors New Delhi, January 4, 2024: The year 2023’s winter months were a period when the region of Delhi-NCR slipped back into the abyss of high pollution levels – despite having seen a gradual long-term improvement in annual PM2.5 concentrations since 2015-17. The forward march towards cleaner air and clearer skies came to a grinding halt in 2023, says a new analysis by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), partly due to meteorological factors. The region witnessed cleaner-than-usual summer and monsoon seasons, and much lower ingress of smoke from farm stubble fires in the northern states. But unusually low surface wind speed in winter meant that local pollution, which was already quite high, was trapped. This led to the spike in pollution levels. Says Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy, CSE: “Due to the impact of the unusual winter levels, the overall annual concentrations plateaued and even worsened, undoing the gains of the long-term downward trend. With the contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s pollution going down this year, with more rains in November and less severe cold winter conditions, the annual level should have improved further. Instead, the worsening of meteorological conditions — lowering of wind speed — tilted the scale adversely simply because the local pollution was still very high. Delhi needs more aggressive emissions reduction steps to meet the national ambient air quality standard.” Avikal Somvanshi, senior programme manager, Urban Lab, CSE points out: “Interestingly, the summer and monsoon months in 2023 were unusually cleaner compared to the months in the previous years. But winter levels turned out to be one of the worst due to very slow surface wind speed. This impeded the dispersal of pollution and led to higher levels. This trapping of local pollution from all sides made this winter exceptionally bad despite lesser smoke from farm fires. The meteorology also explains lower pollution peaks and relatively uniform bad air quality with minimal fluctuations in the PM2.5 concentration throughout the season.” The winter pollution analysis was carried out by CSE’s Urban Lab. The objective, says Somvanshi, has been “to understand the trend and the starting line of the onset of the winter pollution season in this region”. Key highlights of the CSE analysis 2023’s annual average PM2.5 levels worse than that of 2022 – but not as high as it used to be: Delhi has been witnessing a gradual yet consistent decline in its annual PM2.5 levels since 2015-17, with 2020 being the only outlier due to massive disruption caused by pandemic lockdowns. But this downward movement stopped in 2023. Delhi’s PM2.5 annual average for 2023 (up till December 29, 2023) stood at 100.9 microgramme per cubic metre (µg/m3). This was an increase of 2 per cent compared to the 2022 annual level, and was 6 per cent higher than an exceptionally clean 2020. However, the levels were not as high as they used to be earlier – the average of 2018-22 winters is higher than that of the winter of 2023. The long-term three-year average trend among the five oldest CAAQMS stations of the city (ITO, IHBAS, Mandir Marg, Punjabi Bagh and RK Puram) also shows a similar pattern. This 2021-23 average has settled almost 3 per cent higher than its 2020-22 counterpart. Winter condition has affected the 2023 trend — summer is getting progressively cleaner: In 2023, about 151 days met the National Ambient Air Quality Standard. This was similar to the 2021 trend and second only to 2020 (a lockdown year) when 174 days had met the standards. In 2022, only 117 days met the standard. Almost all of these cleaner days were observed during summer and monsoon seasons. There was a significant fall in the number of ‘good’ air quality days (when levels are 50 per cent below the standard) in 2023; this stood at 24 days compared to 41 in 2022. Meanwhile, in 2023, the number of days with PM2.5 concentration in the ‘very poor’ or ‘worse’ categories (as per the air quality index classification) stood at 107 days, including 24 with ‘severe’ levels (until December 30, 2023). In 2022, there were 106 ‘very poor’ or ‘worse’ days, but ‘severe’ days were just nine in number – this was less than half of that of 2023. Summer is cleaner, while winter is becoming worse: In 2023, the summer months (from March to June) were significantly less polluted (14-36 per cent) than the corresponding months in 2022. But the winter months of January, November and December were much more polluted in 2023 (12-34 per cent) compared to the months in 2022 (see corresponding graph in the complete report). The transition period including February, July, September and October does not show much change, which might be due to the fact that the monsoon months were already very clean. What went wrong in the winter of 2023? Though the number of days with ‘very poor’ and ‘severe’ PM2.5 concentration increased, peak pollution was down: Between October 1 and December 29, there were only three days of ‘satisfactory’ air quality and zero days of ‘good’ air quality. There were more days of these categories in the same period in the previous two years. The number of ‘severe+’ days was the same as in the winters of 2019, 2020 and 2021, but the peak intensity was lower. The peak in 2023 was 349 µg/m3 and happened on November 13 (the day after Diwali). This is much lower than the peaks recorded in the previous years: in 2022, the peak was 401 µg/m3, while in 2019 it went up to 546 µg/m3. Highest number of smog episodes observed this season in last six winters: Delhi usually experiences two smog episodes (a smog episode is defined as at least three or more minimum continuous days with air quality in the ‘severe’ category) in the months of November and December. In 2023, there were three episodes by December 24; on December 30, Delhi was reeling under its third day of continuous ‘severe’ air quality, which was turning into the city’s fourth smog episode. This was the highest number of smog episodes observed in a season in last six winters. Overall, 2023 winter seems to have had the most consistently bad air compared to the last six winters, with minimal fluctuations in daily PM2.5 levels. Data indicates that it was the longest spell of ‘very poor’ or ‘worse’ air in last six years. Slow surface winds seem to be the main contributory factor to the winter trend: Farm stubble fire smoke is generally perceived to be the main contributor to heightened PM2.5 levels during the first half of the winter season. But in 2023, the number of fires in Punjab and Haryana were nearly identical to 2022’s number of incidences. Data from both MODIS and VIIRS satellites shows that there was no significant difference between fire instances of 2023 and 2022 ((see corresponding graph in the complete report)). The contribution of fires to PM2.5 in November 2023 only adds up to 1.48 tonne (calculated on the basis of SAFAR’s Decision Support System estimates) – the lowest in the last six years; 2023 winter also recorded the maximum rainfall in the last six years, and the cold conditions were less severe than usual. Says Somvanshi: “All these factors should have led to a cleaner winter. But this was undone by the lack of surface winds.” In November 2023, the average surface wind speed in Delhi was 9.8 m/s, which was the lowest in the last six years. It was 21 per cent less than the wind speed in November of 2022. Somvanshi explains: “Low wind speed means that local pollution dispersion is horizontally restricted, while vertical dispersion is already restricted because of the winter inversion phenomenon. This trapping of local pollution from all sides has made this winter exceptionally bad despite lesser smoke from farm stubble fires. This also explains low peaks and relatively uniform bad air quality with minimal fluctuations in PM2.5 concentration throughout the season. It must also be noted that heavy rains in November had insignificant impact on air quality.” What should be the way ahead? Says Roychowdhury: “This winter is a lasting reminder of the fact that Delhi, despite succeeding to bend the long-term pollution curve downward over the last few years, has not achieved deeper cuts in emissions to sustain a more aggressive reduction for meeting air quality standards and prevent winter spikes.” Roychowdhury and Somvanshi point out that this requires sustained action: Towards significant reduction in emissions from vehicles, with a massive scaling up of the zero-emission electric vehicle programme and an efficient public transport strategy Towards clean fuel transition in all segments of industries, with stringent compliance with emissions targets and replacement of solid fuels in households and eateries Towards elimination of waste burning, with a comprehensive waste management system ensuring 100 per cent segregated collection, material recovery and remediation of legacy waste Towards stringent measures in the construction sector

Game changer

With climate change reshaping our landscapes and intensifying natural disasters, India is taking a bold step toward harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to bolster its weather forecasting capabilities. The recent initiative by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to test AI-driven climate models represents a significant leap forward, as the country grapples with the escalating frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events. As the most populous nation on Earth, with 1.4 billion people, India faces unique challenges in managing the impact of weather-related disasters, especially considering that a substantial portion of its population is impoverished. The agricultural sector, which is a cornerstone of the Indian economy and a lifeline for millions, is particularly vulnerable. With AI, the IMD aims to revolutionise its forecasting methods, offering a glimpse into a future where technology becomes a linchpin in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. At the heart of this endeavour is the recognition that traditional forecasting models, reliant on supercomputers and mathematical algorithms, may not be equipped to handle the growing complexity of India’s weather patterns. Global warming has given rise to more erratic clashes between weather systems, necessitating a paradigm shift in how we approach meteorological predictions. AI, with its ability to process vast amounts of data swiftly, emerges as a game-changer. The IMD’s pursuit of AI-driven climate models is not merely a technological dalliance. It is a strategic move to save lives and protect vital sectors of the economy. The Centre for Science and Environment estimates that nearly 3,000 lives have been lost in India this year alone due to extreme weather events ~ a stark reminder of the human toll exacted by unpredictable climatic conditions. By integrating AI into its forecasting arsenal, the IMD aims to provide more accurate and timely information, enabling authorities and communities to prepare and respond effectively. One of the key advantages of AI in weather forecasting lies in its potential to reduce costs. Unlike traditional methods that rely on supercomputers, AI models can operate on standard desktops ~ a significant advantage for a country striving to optimise resources. However, as with any technological leap, challenges abound. The need for high-resolution data is paramount for AI models to reach their full potential. India’s decision to embrace AI in weather forecasting is a testament to the nation’s resilience and adaptability. It reflects a forward-looking approach to confront the realities of a changing climate head-on. As the government establishes a centre dedicated to exploring the synergy between AI and traditional models, India positions itself not just as a beneficiary but as a trailblazer in the quest for more reliable and efficient weather predictions. The integration of AI into the meteorological landscape may well be the silver lining that ensures India’s preparedness in the face of an increasingly unpredictable climate.

Delhi: This December most polluted in 5 years

NEW DELHI: This year was more polluted than the one before, recording an average daily PM2.5 concentration of 100 micrograms per cubic metre against 98 in 2022. With an average AQI of 348, December 2023 was the most polluted in the past five years. In December 2018, a higher AQI of 360 was recorded. Though the first half of the year was cleaner than earlier years, winter in 2023 saw higher pollution levels. The PM2.5 concentration in 2023 was 2.5 times higher than the annual national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) and 20 times higher than the annual WHO safe limit. This year saw the average daily PM10 level of 205 micrograms per cubic metre, making it the second lowest concentration since 2018 after the Covid year of 2020. However, PM10 levels in 2023 were still 3.41 times higher than the annual NAAQS and 13.66 times higher than WHO's annual safe limit. This December saw three severe days with AQI in the very poor category on most days. November was the worst polluted ever. The penultimate month of 2023 witnessed 17 days when the AQI was 390 or above. The air quality in October was the most polluted in the past three years. Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director for research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said: "This winter, we have seen higher pollution levels. This is the result of the combination of more adverse meteorological conditions and trapping of high pollution in local and surrounding regions. This is a reminder of the need for more stringent action on key pollution sources." Sunil Dahiya, an analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said: "Due to Covid, industrial and economical activities had slowed down. However, the consumption of fossil fuels increased in 2023 as the industrial and economical activities were back in full swing. The PM2.5 concentration rose more in 2023 than the previous year as significant action to decrease pollution at source levels was not taken." In terms of average AQI, 2023 saw the second lowest AQI of 204 after 2020 when it was 185, according to the Commission for Air Quality Management in NCR and adjoining areas (CAQM). Barring 2020, 2023 witnessed four months (March, April, June and July) with best ever daily average AQI. Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, said: "In 2024, it will be five years of the National Clean Air Programme having been implemented. Such marginal and short-lived improvements show that we need a science-based, well-planned and comprehensive action plan."

Richest 1% emitted as much as poorest 66%, enough to cause 1.3 million heat deaths: Oxfam report

Annual global emissions of the super-rich 1% was cancelling out the carbon savings from almost a million onshore wind turbines, it shows The richest one per cent of the world’s people emitted as much carbon as the poorest five billion who make up 66 per cent of the global population, according to a new report. The volume of their emissions in that year are enough to cause 1.3 million deaths due to heat, Oxfam noted in the report. Annual global emissions of the super-rich 1 per cent was cancelling out the carbon savings from almost a million onshore wind turbines, the authors of Climate equality: A planet for the 99% said. Understanding the role of “super-rich and rich people”, who are just 1 per cent of the world’s total population in climate breakdown, is important to stabalise the planet and ensure a “good life” for all, noted OXFAM in the report. The super rich are key to the climate story due to the carbon they emit in their daily lives, from their consumption and lifestyles to their investments and shareholdings in heavily polluting industries. In addition, they hold an undue influence over the media, the economy, politics and policymaking, the authors of the report pointed out. “The emissions of the 1 per cent are set to be over 22 times more than the safe limit (the emissions allowed if we are to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming) in 2030,” they added. Governments can tackle the twin crises of inequality and climate change by targeting the excessive emissions of the super-rich, investing in public services and meeting climate goals. Taxes on the wealth and income of the riches could cut carbon pollution and raise over $9 trillion a year to invest in a green, equal future for all, according to the report. “A tax of 60 per cent on the incomes of the super-rich 1 per cent of earners globally would cut the carbon equivalent of more than the total emissions of the United Kingdom and raise $6.4 trillion to fund renewable energy and a transition away from fossil fuels,” the authors noted. Amitabh Behar, Oxfam International interim executive-director, said, “for years, we’ve fought to end an era of fossil fuels to save millions of lives and our planet. It’s clearer than ever this will be impossible until we also end an era of extreme wealth”. UNEQUAL IMPACT The countries that are least responsible for global warming, the low-emitting nations, are suffering the worst consequences of climate crisis and also the least able to respond and recover. The most vulnerable countries in the world are located in Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic. Africa’s emissions were less than four per cent, despite the continent being home to 17 per cent of the world’s populations. More than 91 per cent of climate related disasters of the past 50 years occurred in developing countries. The death toll from floods is seven times higher in the most unequal countries as compared to more equal countries. Women and other groups experiencing discrimination, especially those with fewer economic resources tend to have less access to relief assistance and lower survival rates following a climate-related disaster. A joint research report by the Stockholm Environment Institute and Oxfam, September 2020 examined the different contributions of different income groups to carbon emissions from 1990 to 2015. During this period, carbon dioxide emissions rose by roughly 60 per cent (13.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide). Nearly half of the total growth in absolute emissions was due to the richest 10 per cent, with the richest 5 per cent alone contributing over a third (37 per cent). The impact of the poorest half of the world’s population was practically negligible. Sunita Narain, director-general of the Centre for Science and Environment, said, “climate finance can no longer be the money that goes to only increase the indebtedness of countries and makes them even more vulnerable to the next disaster”. We are a voice to you; you have been a support to us. Together we build journalism that is independent, credible and fearless. You can further help us by making a donation. This will mean a lot for our ability to bring you news, perspectives and analysis from the ground so that we can make change together.

The peaks and troughs of India's quest for clean air

Only 15 of 131 cities meet the national air quality safety standards, according to data presented in the Parliament. Here's an on-ground assessment Data and documents tabled in the recently concluded winter session of the Parliament by the ministry of environment, forests and climate change (MoEFCC) paint a mixed picture of the crucial battle against the climate crisis. A series of documents on air quality control were put forward, offering a comprehensive evaluation of cities that fell short of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, assessed in 2023 against the base year 2017. Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said a detailed report on city-wise air quality performance was ...