• Down To Earth

India tests AI for weather forecasting amid increasing floods, droughts

India is turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to improve climate models and enhance weather forecasting as the nation grapples with increased extreme weather events including torrential rains, floods, and droughts. Nearly 3,000 people have been killed by extreme weather events in 2023, per the Centre for Science and Environment. Weather agencies worldwide are concentrating on AI to reduce costs and boost speed, which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionize" weather forecasting. 2/4 IMD is working on AI-based climate models K.S. Hosalikar, head of climate research and services at India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Reuters that the department expects the AI-based climate models and advisories that it is developing to help improve forecasts. 3/4 AI to replace supercomputers at IMD Currently, IMD relies on mathematical models and supercomputers for weather forecasts. However, by integrating AI and expanding the observation network, the department aims to produce higher-quality forecast data at a lower cost. Saurabh Rathore, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, explains, "An AI model doesn't require the high cost involved in running a supercomputer - you can even run it out of a good quality desktop." 4/4 Government sets up center to test AI integration The Indian government has expressed its intention to incorporate AI into traditional weather and climate forecasting models. A center has been established to explore this concept through workshops and conferences. Nevertheless, experts stress the importance of better data to fully harness the potential of AI. Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, states, "Without having high-resolution data in space and time, no AI model for location-specific magnification of existing model forecasts is feasible."

• Down To Earth

India Taps AI in Forecasts as Extreme Weather Weighs on Economy

India is planning to employ artificial intelligence (AI) for weather forecasting after an intense year of extreme climate ranging from torrential rains and floods to droughts. The country is doing tests with AI to build climate models, with plans to incorporate those into traditional forecasting models, a top weather official said. India recorded extreme weather events on 235 of the 273 days between January 1 to September 30 this year, according to Indian daily Hindustan Times. Citing a study by Indian not-for-profit advocacy group Centre for Science and Environment, the report said extreme weather events killed nearly 3,000 people in the country during the nine-month period. The study did not include estimates on losses of public property or crops due to a lack of data. But it noted the weather events impacted 1.84 million hectares of crop area, destroyed more than 80,000 houses, and killed more than 92,000 livestock. India’s weather crisis stems from global warming, which has triggered intense clashes of weather systems in the country in recent years. That makes accurate weather forecasting particularly crucial in India, a country of 1.4 billion people — many of whom are impoverished. India is also the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat and sugar. AI generated public alerts Weather agencies around the world are focussing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed. Britain’s Met Office has said AI could “revolutionise” weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides forecasts based on mathematical models using supercomputers. Using AI with an expanded observation network could help generate higher-quality forecast data at lower cost. The department expects the AI-based climate models and advisories it is developing to help improve forecasts, KS Hosalikar, head of climate research and services at IMD said. The weather office has used AI to generate public alerts regarding heatwaves and such diseases as malaria, Hosalikar said. It plans to increase weather observatories, providing data down to village level, potentially offering higher-resolution data for forecasts, he said. Better data needed The government said on Thursday it wants to generate weather and climate forecasts by incorporating AI into traditional models. It has set up a centre to test the idea through workshops and conferences. “An AI model doesn’t require the high cost involved in running a supercomputer – you can even run it out of a good quality desktop,” Saurabh Rathore, an assistant professor at Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi, said. Better data is also needed to make the most out of AI, experts say. “Without having high-resolution data in space and time, no AI model for location-specific magnification of existing model forecasts is feasible,” said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Reuters, with additional editing by Vishakha Saxena

• Down To Earth

India boosts AI weather forecasts amid floods, droughts

India is testing artificial intelligence (AI) to build climate models to improve weather forecasting as torrential rains, floods and droughts proliferate across the vast country, a top weather official says. Global warming has triggered more intense clashes of weather systems in India in recent years, increasing extreme weather events, which the independent Centre for Science and Environment estimates have killed almost 3000 people this year. Weather agencies around the world are focusing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed, and which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionise" weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods.

• Down To Earth

India Embraces AI for Enhanced Weather Forecasting Amid Rising Extreme Events

India is stepping up its game in weather forecasting by integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its methods. This move comes as the country faces an increase in extreme weather events like floods and droughts. A top official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) highlighted that this integration aims to enhance the accuracy of weather predictions, which is vital for a nation with a vast population and a significant agricultural sector. Over 3,000 people in India have lost their lives due to extreme weather in 2023 In recent years, India has witnessed a rise in severe weather conditions, partly attributed to global warming. These events have not only disrupted lives but also caused significant fatalities. The Centre for Science and Environment, an independent body, estimates that nearly 3,000 people in India have lost their lives to extreme weather this year alone. Given these challenges, the need for precise and timely weather forecasts has never been more crucial. The IMD, which currently relies on supercomputers and mathematical models for weather predictions, is looking at AI as a cost-effective and efficient alternative. This approach aligns with global trends, as other countries are also turning towards AI for weather forecasting. For instance, Britain’s Met Office has acknowledged the potential of AI to revolutionize this field. A notable development in this area is a Google-funded AI model that has reportedly outperformed traditional forecasting methods. AI in weather forecasting could be particularly transformative for India. The country, home to 1.4 billion people and a significant portion of the world’s rice, wheat, and sugar production, depends heavily on accurate weather forecasts for both human safety and agricultural planning. The IMD’s initiative to incorporate AI could lead to more precise forecasts at a lower cost, a boon for a country where many still live in poverty. The IMD has already begun using AI for public alerts related to heatwaves and diseases like malaria. Plans are underway to expand weather observatories to provide more detailed data, which is essential for the success of AI models. The government’s support for this initiative, including setting up a center to explore AI in weather forecasting, signals a strong commitment to harnessing technology for better weather predictions.

• Down To Earth

India boosts AI in weather forecasts as floods, droughts increase

India is testing artificial intelligence (AI) to build climate models to improve weather forecasting as torrential rains, floods and droughts proliferate across the vast country, a top weather official said. Global warming has triggered more intense clashes of weather systems in India in recent years, increasing extreme weather events, which the independent Centre for Science and Environment estimates have killed nearly 3,000 people this year. Weather agencies around the world are focussing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed, and which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionise" weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods.

• Down To Earth

India boosts AI in weather forecasts as floods, droughts increase

Global warming has triggered more intense clashes of weather systems in India in recent years, increasing extreme weather events, which the independent Centre for Science and Environment estimates have killed nearly 3,000 people this year. Weather agencies around the world are focussing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed, and which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionise" weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods. Accurate weather forecasting is particularly crucial in India, a country of 1.4 billion people, many impoverished, and the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat and sugar. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides forecasts based on mathematical models using supercomputers. Using AI with an expanded observation network could help generate higher-quality forecast data at lower cost. The department expects the AI-based climate models and advisories it is developing to help improve forecasts, K.S. Hosalikar, head of climate research and services at IMD, told Reuters. "An AI model doesn't require the high cost involved in running a supercomputer - you can even run it out of a good quality desktop," said Saurabh Rathore, an assistant professor at Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi. Better data is also needed to make the most out of AI, experts say. "Without having high-resolution data in space and time, no AI model for location-specific magnification of existing model forecasts is feasible," said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

• Down To Earth

India Leverages AI To Improve Weather Forecasting Amid Rising Climate Concerns

building and weather forecasting as the nation grapples with the increasing frequency of floods, droughts, and torrential rains, according to a Reuters report. What Happened? Global warming has led to increased extreme weather occurrences in India, with nearly 3,000 lives claimed this year alone, as per the independent Centre for Science and Environment. Weather agencies worldwide are turning to AI for its potential to decrease costs and increase efficiency in weather forecasting.

• Urban Lab

Ấn Độ Dự Định Thay Đổi Thời Tiết để Đối Phó với Sương Mù Chết Người

Thủ đô của Ấn Độ, New Delhi, đang chuẩn bị một vũ khí mới trong cuộc chiến chống lại ô nhiễm không khí nguy hiểm: gieo mây. Thử nghiệm này, có thể diễn ra ngay trong tuần tới, sẽ giới thiệu các chất như iodide bạch kim vào bầu trời đầy mây để tạo ra mưa và, hy vọng là, rửa sạch hạt siêu nhỏ đang lơ lửng trên một trong những thành phố lớn nhất thế giới. Nhu cầu là cấp bách. Delhi đã thử nghiệm các biện pháp hạn chế giao thông, các tháp lọc không khí triệu đô la, và việc sử dụng đội xe tưới nước để tan chảy hạt bụi trong không khí—nhưng không hiệu quả. Việc sử dụng kỹ thuật gieo mây, nếu thực hiện, sẽ gây tranh cãi. “Nó hoàn toàn không phải là một cách sử dụng tốt của tài nguyên vì nó không phải là một giải pháp, nó giống như một sự giảm nhẹ tạm thời,” nói Avikal Somvanshi, một nghiên cứu viên tại Trung tâm Khoa học và Môi trường tại New Delhi. Các nhà môi trường và nhà khoa học lo lắng rằng hầu hết các biện pháp của chính phủ đều tập trung vào giảm nhẹ ô nhiễm thay vì cố gắng cắt đứt nguồn gốc của nó. “Không có ý chí chính trị để giải quyết vấn đề này, đó là một trong những vấn đề lớn nhất,” nói Bhavreen Kandhari, một nhà hoạt động và đồng sáng lập của Warrior Moms, một mạng lưới các bà mẹ đòi hỏi không khí sạch. Không khí quá tệ đến nỗi các trường học ở Delhi và các vùng lân cận đã thông báo đóng cửa, và các văn phòng đang cho phép nhân viên làm việc từ nhà. Chính phủ đã khuyến cáo trẻ em, người già, và những người mắc các bệnh mãn tính nên ở trong nhà nhiều nhất có thể. Xe tải chạy dầu, trừ những chiếc chở hàng thiết yếu, không được phép vào thành phố nữa. Những đợt mưa tuần trước đã làm sạch không khí, nhưng niềm vui chỉ kéo dài ngắn ngủi khi chất lượng không khí lại trở nên tồi tệ hơn, được hỗ trợ bởi pháo hoa bắn vào cuối tuần để kỷ niệm Diwali, lễ hội ánh sáng của người Hindu. Bây giờ, các quan chức Delhi đang xin phép từ các cơ quan liên bang ở Ấn Độ để thử nghiệm gieo mây. Kỹ thuật này liên quan đến việc sử dụng máy bay để phun mây với các muối như bạch kim hoặc kali iodide hoặc carbon dioxide rắn, còn được biết đến với tên gọi là nước đá khô, để kích thích mưa. Các phân tử hóa học kết hợp với hơi ẩm có sẵn trong mây để tạo ra giọt lớn hơn rồi rơi xuống dưới dạng mưa. Trung Quốc đã sử dụng mưa nhân tạo để giải quyết ô nhiễm không khí trong quá khứ—nhưng để gieo mây hoạt động đúng cách, bạn cần có đủ mây với độ ẩm hợp lý, điều Delhi thường thiếu vào mùa đông. Nếu điều kiện thời tiết thuận lợi, các nhà khoa học đang dẫn dắt dự án tại Viện Công nghệ Ấn Độ ở Kanpur dự kiến sẽ thực hiện gieo mây vào khoảng ngày 20 tháng 11. Cho đến khi đó, ít nhất là, Delhi sẽ tiếp tục che phủ trong một lớp sương mù xám đậm, đã trở thành một nghi lễ độc hại vào mùa đông. Cảm giác sương mù, một hỗn hợp nguy hiểm của hạt bụi và khí độc hại, xuất phát từ một loạt sự kiện không may xảy ra vào đầu mùa đông. Vào cuối tháng 10, những người nông dân ở miền bắc Ấn Độ, đặc biệt là những người trồng lúa ở các bang Punjab và Haryana phía tây bắc Delhi, sử dụng một phương pháp rẻ và dễ dàng để làm sạch đồng lúa của họ để trồng mới—đốt lửa để đốt cháy những thân cây còn lại sau khi thu hoạch. Khi làm như vậy, họ vô tình làm bay đi những tia khói vào không khí. Các cơ quan chức đã cố gắng thuyết phục nông dân chuyển sang sử dụng máy để loại bỏ mảnh còn lại của cây lúa thay vì đốt cháy nó, nhưng nông dân không phải lúc nào cũng có khả năng chi trả cho phương pháp đó. Một số doanh nghiệp khởi nghiệp nhỏ chuyển mảnh còn lại của mùa lúa thành bột giấy có thể sử dụng để làm các sản phẩm thùng carton. Chính quyền các bang và liên bang cũng đã xem xét việc trả tiền cho nông dân để họ không đốt cháy đồng của mình. Ngay cả vào những ngày tồi tệ nhất, khói từ việc đốt cỏ chỉ chiếm khoảng một phần ba của ô nhiễm ở Delhi, theo quan điểm của Somvanshi. Và chỉ cần ngừng đốt đám lửa nông trại không làm sương mù biến mất vì không thiếu các hoạt động gây ô nhiễm trong và xung quanh Delhi—những nhà máy điện than, lò gạch, đốt rác, việc sử dụng củi và than cho việc nấu ăn gia đình, và nhiều hơn nữa. Như không có nguồn gốc bên ngoài không đủ, hạt bụi siêu mịn cũng có thể hình thành thông qua phản ứng hóa học. Khi điều kiện đúng—một ít hơi ẩm trong không khí, nhiệt độ thấp—tất cả các chất gây ô nhiễm khí, đặc biệt là oxit nitơ, oxit lưu huỳnh, hợp chất hữu cơ bay hơi, và amoniac, bắt đầu phản ứng và tạo ra hạt bụi phụ, theo quan điểm của Somvanshi. Gần 25% hạt bụi siêu mịn (chất gây ô nhiễm không khí được viết tắt là PM 2.5) ở Delhi là do phản ứng này gây ra. Hình thành hạt bụi phụ cũng là một rủi ro khi gieo mây, theo Gufran Beig, một nhà khí tượng học và chuyên gia ô nhiễm không khí tại Viện Khí tượng Nhiệt đới Ấn Độ. Để chất lượng không khí cải thiện đáng kể, bạn cần mưa lớn và kéo dài. Nếu gieo mây chỉ tạo ra mưa phùn, thì độ ẩm sẽ tăng, có thể kích thích hình thành hạt phụ thuộc, anh nói. Một phần lỗi cho sương mù mùa đông ở Delhi cũng nằm ở hiện tượng khí hậu gọi là đảo ngược. Trong mùa hè, không khí gần mặt đất ấm, trong khi không khí ở độ cao lớn hơn lạnh hơn. Do đó, bất kỳ thứ gì được phát thải ở mặt đất tự nhiên nâng lên với không khí nóng và được phân tán, theo quan điểm của Somvanshi. Khi mùa đông đến, mọi thứ bị đảo ngược, đúng nghĩa đen. “Khi nhiệt độ mặt đất giảm, không khí ngay bên cạnh mặt đất trở nên lạnh, và khi bạn đi lên nó trở nên nóng hơn,” anh nói. Một lớp không khí lạnh, nặng hình thành trên khắp Bắc Ấn Độ, ngăn chặn bất kỳ sự chuyển động dọc nào. Là một thành phố nằm trong đất liền, Delhi không có gió biển để di chuyển ô nhiễm theo chiều ngang, theo quan điểm của Somvanshi. Kết quả là, các chất ô nhiễm không có chỗ để đi. Sương mù kết quả đưa ra một bộ lọc sepia tự nhiên cho thành phố vào lúc hoàng hôn. Khắp Delhi, màn hình số hiển thị chỉ số chất lượng không khí (AQI), một đo lường của nồng độ chất gây ô nhiễm trong không khí. Tổ chức Y tế Thế giới khuyến nghị rằng AQI trung bình trong vòng 24 giờ nên dưới 15. Chỉ số AQI trung bình thành phố Delhi hầu như mọi ngày trong tháng này đều trên 350, dữ liệu từ Bảo vệ Môi trường Trung ương cho thấy. Một khu vực đã đạt đến mức ghi được là 999 và một số vượt qua con số 500. Những thành phần gây hại nhất trong hỗn hợp chết người này là PM2.5 và PM10—những hạt bụi không khí hoặc dạng hạt phóng xạ có đường kính chỉ vài micron—xâm nhập vào cơ thể khi bạn hít thở và đặt chúng vào phổi, thậm chí có thể vào máu đôi khi. Trong thời gian ngắn, chúng có thể gây khó khăn khi thở và để lại cho bạn những cơn đau đầu dài, nặng, đau mắt, hoặc một cảm giác ho khan dai dẳng. Tiếp xúc lâu dài với hạt bụi siêu mịn đã được liên kết với các bệnh tim và phổi, nhiễm trùng đường hô hấp, kết quả sinh non bất lợi, và nhiều vấn đề khác. Theo Ngân hàng Thế giới, ô nhiễm không khí chịu trách nhiệm cho hơn 2 triệu cái chết sớm hàng năm chỉ ở Nam Á một mình. Suốt mùa ô nhiễm, Delhi hạn chế hoạt động xây dựng để giảm lượng bụi trong không khí và sử dụng xe tưới nước để cố gắng làm ẩm bụi còn lại. Thành phố cũng có hai “tháp sương mù”—hệ thống lọc không khí với quạt khổng lồ có khả năng lọc 1.000 mét khối không khí mỗi giây và giá trị hơn 2 triệu đô la mỗi chiếc. Nhưng các nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng chúng chỉ làm sạch không khí trong vài trăm mét xung quanh và chúng lớn phần là không hiệu quả. Một biện pháp đích thực nhắm trực tiếp vào phát thải là chính sách kỳ lạ, nơi xe có biển số đăng ký lẻ được phép lưu thông trên đường vào những ngày lẻ và những chiếc có số chẵn vào những ngày chẵn. Nhưng Delhi áp dụng quy tắc này một cách tiết kiệm và chỉ áp dụng cho một phần nhỏ xe cộ, theo Beig. “Nó thực sự không có nghĩa gì nếu bạn đang rút ra một xô nước từ đại dương,” anh nói. Để thực sự hiệu quả, các quy tắc như kỳ lạ nên được áp dụng suốt cả năm, theo Kandhari. Đối với điều đó, Delhi cần một hệ thống giao thông công cộng tốt hơn, cô thêm. Phía sau tấm mây trời là rằng mức PM 2.5 trung bình hàng năm ở Delhi đã giảm, mặc dù là từ từ, kể từ năm 2015, theo nghiên cứu của Somvanshi. Sự cải thiện này có thể nhìn thấy trong những tháng mùa hè và mùa mưa, khi điều kiện thời tiết thuận lợi, anh nói. Kandhari nói rằng nỗi sợ lớn nhất của cô là không thể thấy được Delhi không khói mù trong cuộc đời cô. Ngạc nhiên thay, mặc dù có tiếng gọi mùa, không khí ô nhiễm ở Delhi chưa trở thành một vấn đề bầu cử. Và vì vậy, trước cuộc bầu cử tổng thể vào năm sau, Kandhari có một yêu cầu quan trọng đối với đồng bào Ấn Độ của mình: Khi các chính trị gia đến xin phiếu của bạn, hãy hỏi họ xem không khí trong lành ở đâu trong danh sách ưu tiên của họ.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

Delhi implements GRAP III to combat severe air quality; bans BS-3 and BS-4 Vehicles, construction activities

Following the implementation of Graded Response Action Plan (Grap) 3, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) has granted authority to state governments in Delhi and NCR to determine the cessation of in-person classes for students up to Class 5, endorsing the preference for online classes. Additionally, the commission has called on officials to improve public transport services and implement variable rates to promote off-peak travel. Home » India » Delhi Implements GRAP III To Combat Severe Air Quality; Bans BS-3 And BS-4 Vehicles, Construction Activities Delhi implements GRAP III to combat severe air quality; bans BS-3 and BS-4 Vehicles, construction activities Following the implementation of Graded Response Action Plan (Grap) 3, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) has granted authority to state governments in Delhi and NCR to determine the cessation of in-person classes for students up to Class 5, endorsing the preference for online classes. Additionally, the commission has called on officials to improve public transport services and implement variable rates to promote off-peak travel. Written By: Adan Khan Published: 23 Dec 2023 17:27:PM Delhi implements GRAP III to combat severe air quality; bans BS-3 and BS-4 Vehicles, construction activities On Friday, Delhi’s average Air Quality Index (AQI) reached 409, re-entering the ‘severe’ zone after a hiatus of 28 days. (PTI file photo) New Delhi: Following a sharp decline in Delhi’s air quality to the ‘severe’ level on Friday, the sub-committee of the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) swiftly implemented stage III of the Graded Response Action Plan (Grap) in Delhi-NCR. The immediate measures included a directive to NCR states to prohibit the operation of BS-3 petrol and BS-4 diesel four-wheelers in Delhi, as well as in Gurgaon, Faridabad, Ghaziabad and Gautam Budh Nagar districts. Additionally, the ban extended to construction and demolition activities, stone crushers, and mining-related operations. A senior Delhi transport official confirmed that these restrictions would be enforced starting Saturday morning. On Friday, Delhi’s average Air Quality Index (AQI) reached 409, re-entering the ‘severe’ zone after a hiatus of 28 days. Grap 3 measures had previously been in effect from November 2 to 28. Empowering state governments and shifting to online classes In the wake of Grap 3 implementation, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) empowered state governments in Delhi and NCR to decide on discontinuing physical classes in schools for children up to Class V, favoring online classes instead. The commission urged officials to enhance public transport services and introduce variable rates to encourage off-peak travel. The directives included a ban on construction and demolition activities, excluding specific categories such as railway services, Metro services, airports, inter-state bus terminals, national security or defence-related projects, hospitals, linear public projects and sanitation projects. Certain non-polluting and non-dust generating activities like plumbing, interior decoration, electrical works and carpentry were exempted. However, the prohibition on construction and demolition activities raised concerns about its impact on daily-wage labourers. Addressing air quality concerns through Grap measures CAQM attributed the sudden spike in Delhi’s average AQI to unfavourable meteorological conditions, including fog, haze, and low wind speed. The commission emphasized that Grap measures were imposed to address the existing trend of air quality and prevent further deterioration. Anumita Roychowdhury, Executive Director of Research and Advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), highlighted the need for stringent efforts to reduce local emissions from key sources, especially during the severe smog episodes typical of late December and early January.

• Down To Earth

India boosts AI in weather forecasts as floods, droughts increase

India is testing artificial intelligence (AI) to build climate models to improve weather forecasting as torrential rains, floods and droughts proliferate across the vast country, a top weather official said. Global warming has triggered more intense clashes of weather systems in India in recent years, increasing extreme weather events, which the independent Centre for Science and Environment estimates have killed nearly 3,000 people this year. Weather agencies around the world are focussing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed, and which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionise" weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods. Accurate weather forecasting is particularly crucial in India, a country of 1.4 billion people, many impoverished, and the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat and sugar. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides forecasts based on mathematical models using supercomputers. Using AI with an expanded observation network could help generate higher-quality forecast data at lower cost. The department expects the AI-based climate models and advisories it is developing to help improve forecasts, K.S. Hosalikar, head of climate research and services at IMD, told Reuters. The weather office has used AI to generate public alerts regarding heatwaves and such diseases as malaria, Hosalikar said. It plans to increase weather observatories, providing data down to village level, potentially offering higher-resolution data for forecasts, he said.

• Down To Earth

India Ramps Up Precision in Weather Forecasts through AI

India is harnessing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance its weather forecasting capabilities. The move comes as the country faces a surge in extreme weather events, including torrential rains, floods, and droughts, which have claimed the lives of nearly 3,000 people this year alone, according to estimates from the Centre for Science and Environment. Global warming has intensified clashes between weather systems in India, prompting weather agencies worldwide to turn to AI for its potential to reduce costs and improve forecasting speed. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), responsible for providing crucial weather forecasts for the nation of 1.4 billion people, is leading the charge. The IMD currently relies on mathematical models run on supercomputers, but integrating AI into an expanded observation network could offer higher-quality forecast data at a lower cost. K.S. Hosalikar, Head of Climate Research and Services at IMD, explained that the department has successfully employed AI to issue public alerts for heatwaves and diseases such as malaria. The next step involves increasing the number of weather observatories to provide data at the village level, potentially delivering higher-resolution information for more accurate forecasts. The government announced its commitment to incorporating AI into traditional weather models, aiming to establish a center to explore and test the integration of AI through workshops and conferences. Saurabh Rathore, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi, emphasized the cost-effectiveness of AI models, noting that they can be run on standard desktop computers. However, experts caution that the success of AI in weather forecasting relies heavily on the availability of high-resolution data. Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, highlighted the necessity of having detailed spatial and temporal data for AI models to provide location-specific enhancements to existing forecast models. As India navigates the complexities of climate change, the adoption of AI in weather forecasting emerges as a crucial step toward improving precision, cost-effectiveness, and overall resilience in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.

• Clean Air & Sustainable Mobility

NCR states to take call on onlineclasses, promote public transport

NEW DELHI: Following the rollout of Graded Response Action Plan (Grap) 3 measures on Friday, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) said state governments in Delhi and NCRmay take a decision on discontinuing physical classes in schools for children upto Class V and conducting classes in online mode. Itdirected officials to intensify public transport services and introduce differential rates to encourage off-peak travel. The commission's order banned construction and demolition activities, except in railway services or railway stations, Metro services including stations, airports and inter-state bus terminals, national security or defence-related activities or projects of national importance, hospitals or healthcare facilities, linear public projects such as highways, roads, flyovers, overbridges, power transmission and pipelines, sanitation projects like sewage treatment plants and water supplyproject etc, as well as ancillary activities specific toand supplementing these categories of projects. However, non-polluting and non-dust generatingactivities, including plumbing works, interior decoration, electrical works and carpentry will be allowed. The ban on C&D activitiesis likely to severely impact daily-wage labourers. CAQM said unfavourable meteorological conditions, including fog and haze along with low wind speed, were the major factors in the sudden spike in Delhi's average air quality index. The commission said the Grap measures were imposed due to the prevailing trend of air quality and to prevent further deterioration of air quality. Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said, "Our long-term analysis shows that late December and early January also experience severe smog episodes. But this time it's local pollution and pollution from surrounding areas that gets trapped. This shows why very stringent efforts are needed to cut local emissions from key sources."

• Sustainable Habitat

Indian cities struggle to clear C&D waste

New Delhi: At a time when Indian cities are struggling to control their air pollution levels, a new report by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has found that most of them lack institutional preparedness to carry out systematic and scientific management of construction and demolition (C&D) waste, one of the key sources of pollution in urban areas. CSE released a report titled, ‘Construction and Demolition Waste: Closing the loop for sustainability.’ Releasing the report, CSE director general Sunita Narain said: “C&D waste management is a potential game changer. A decade back, the concern with C&D waste was not about air pollution, but about saving water bodies from the dumping of this waste in them. By 2018-19, the issue of C&D waste became hot and this time, it was about dust in the air which was contributing to pollution. The realisation struck that there lies a huge opportunity in changing things for the better in this sector.” Quoting data from the National Investment Promotion and Facilitation Agency, the CSE report says India’s construction industry is expected to reach US $1.4 trillion by 2025, and contribute about 13 per cent to the national economy. India will be adding billions of square meters of space to create affordable housing units, commercial spaces, cold storage, industrial corridors, smart cities, roads and highways, among other things. Says Rajneesh Sareen, director, sustainable buildings and habitat programme, CSE: “This will not only generate enormous amounts of waste, but also increase the demand for natural and virgin building materials that require mining.” He points to the report, which says that as per the draft National Resource Efficiency Policy of 2019, India has already increased its material consumption six times from 1.18 billion tonnes in 1970 to 7 billion tonnes in 2015. India’s resource extraction rate stands at 1,580 tonnes per acre as compared to the world average of 450 tonnes per acre; its material productivity is low. While India imports many critical raw materials such as sand, it has a much lower recycling rate at 20-25 per cent compared to developed countries of Europe (70 per cent).

• Director General Office

Remodel Food Systems

With climate change in mind, there is a growing discussion on the need to re-engineer the current model of agriculture and the food we consume. Agriculture today contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in a variety of ways — through methane emissions from rice cultivation and livestock and through nitrous oxide from the use of synthetic fertilisers and manure on fields. The large-scale clearing of forests, including rainforests, to produce beef cattle and even palm oil adds to the crisis of our climate-risked world. Then, there is the multi-continent transport for food processing and sale. Not to mention that the sector itself is highly vulnerable to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. What, then, should be the transition plan? This is where farms and food of our world — countries like India — provide answers. We have, as yet, in most parts not moved to an input-intensive model of livestock production. Most dairy farmers are still individuals, using combinations of open and stallfeeding for their animals. Their farms are based on agrosilvopastoral systems. But this is changing fast. Farmers are increasingly using expensive inputs — from fertilisers to seeds to pesticides. This adds to their debt burden, making them even more vulnerable to crop losses and extreme weather impacts. So, the elements of the agricultural model for livelihood-nutrition-nature security in our climate-risked world are as follows. First, it has to be a low-input-based model that protects the farmer from multiple risks. This will also put more money in the hands of farmers, particularly as we know that the high cost of food is unaffordable in most countries. It is clear that low-input agriculture is not necessarily lower in productivity. The conventional strategy — even what is being promoted in the name of smart agriculture — depends on high-cost inputs, which add to the cost of cultivation. The argument is that this strategy will lead to higher yields, which will give the farmer higher income. But this works only if the costs do not wipe out the profits. In the case of smallholder farmers, where there are little economies of scale, this is just not possible. Increasing yields will, however, require working on the health of the soil and providing irrigation to farmers when they need it most. Climate change will also bring new pests — this makes it all the more important for agriculture to be resilient, but this does not mean increasing the use of pesticides. It can and must mean changes in the practices of agriculture as well as the use of non-chemical alternatives. The bottom line is that climate resilience requires more ability to cope, recover, and ultimately put higher returns in the hands of farmers. This also means investing in markets that will provide opportunities for farmers to maximise gains. Second, agriculture has to be built on the principle of risk minimisation. This would mean promoting multiple cropping systems. This will also promote biodiversity as farmers would grow more than one crop on the field. Livestock economy has to be made integral as it would allow for management of risk so that there is income from different sources. Think of it like the diversification of investment portfolios, which bankers would advise you in these times of uncertainty. Third is the choice of crops that are both nutritive and compatible with the local environment. In other words, where there is water shortage, farmers should grow water prudent crops like millets. But this choice is not in the hands of the farmer. Governments must enable policies — from procurement to price — to promote growing of these crops. For instance, more biodiverse and climate-appropriate millets will be grown by farmers where governments have included them in schemes such as mid-day meals (this is one of India’s most important programmes as it aims to provide hot-cooked food in every school of the country). Change of cropping patterns towards climate-resilience will need this supportive structure. The fourth, and the most critical, element is that the choice of food that farmers grow is in the hands of consumers — us; what we eat; and why we eat it. If we change our diets, it provides signals to the farmer to grow differently. We know that food is medicine; yet we continue to eat wrong; eat junk. The food on our plates has lost the meaning of nutrition. We are in danger of losing the knowledge of good food — what our grand-mothers and mothers cooked in different seasons. This is why we must be part of this changed agriculture story. Food cuisines are about culture and biodiversity. The climate change crisis is human-made; it is we humans who have contributed to the emissions that threaten our present, and the very existence of our children’s future. It is we who must rework our lives; our ways of doing business. The fact is that we cannot go ahead with this model of agriculture in a climate-risked world. (Courtesy: Down To Earth; (Writer is Director General of CSE and Editor of Down To Earth, an environmentalist who pushes for changes in policies, practices and mindsets)

• Director General Office

Climate Change Leads To Health Crisis In Elderly And Children, Risk Of Diseases Increasing With Rising Heatwaves

Climate Change has increased health risks for children and the elderly. According to the recent Lancet Countdown report, climate change has affected people's health worldwide. The changing environment has had the most impact on adults over 65 years of age and infants under one year, who are particularly sensitive to rising temperatures. According to the report, the number of heatwave days has almost doubled in the past few years compared to 1986-2005. Due to increasing extreme weather events, there is also an increased risk to water and food security, along with health. According to experts, infectious diseases are rapidly increasing due to the changing climate. Experts claim in the report that due to climate change, warming oceans have been spreading Vibrio bacteria by 329 kilometres annually in the world's coastal areas since 1982. This bacteria could become a major cause of illness and death in humans. Due to this bacteria, nearly 1.4 billion people worldwide are at the risk of diarrhoea, sepsis, and various other types of infections. The risk is higher for people living in coastal areas in Europe. There, the coastal water suitable for Vibrio bacteria has increased by 142 kilometres annually. The increasing risks of climate change have also led to a rise in health inequalities worldwide. The pressure on health systems is increasing significantly. In the survey for this report, 27 per cent of the cities included expressed concern about the impact of climate change on their healthcare systems. Considering the Lancet Countdown Report 2023, the World Health Organization has also urged governments worldwide to quickly end the use of fossil fuels and adopt renewable energy sources to deal with the problem of climate change. According to the World Health Organization, addressing climate change will not only reduce climate change but also improve air quality for 99 per cent of the global population, reducing the harmful effects of air pollution and improving people’s health. The WHO has also called for serious consideration of this issue at the COP-28 meeting held recently. Environmentalists and Director General of CSE, Sunita Narain says that there is no part of the earth where people are not feeling the heatwave. In 2023, heatwaves caused the deaths of 200 people in the 20 states of India. The impact of heatwaves and rising temperatures is affecting the health of the general public. The Lancet report states that as temperatures rise, deaths are increasing and could continue to do so. To address this issue, we need to develop a long-term heatwave action plan. Under this plan, on one hand, arrangements for emergency health services will be made for those affected by heatwaves, and on the other hand, various steps will have to be taken to reduce the heat in cities.

• Down To Earth

India boosts AI in weather forecasts as floods, droughts increase

India is testing artificial intelligence (AI) to build climate models to improve weather forecasting as torrential rains, floods and droughts proliferate across the vast country, a top weather official said. Global warming has triggered more intense clashes of weather systems in India in recent years, increasing extreme weather events, which the independent Centre for Science and Environment estimates have killed nearly 3,000 people this year. Weather agencies around the world are focussing on AI, which can bring down cost and improve speed, and which Britain's Met Office says could "revolutionise" weather forecasting, with a recent Google-funded model found to have outperformed conventional methods. Accurate weather forecasting is particularly crucial in India, a country of 1.4 billion people, many impoverished, and the world's second-largest producer of rice, wheat and sugar. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides forecasts based on mathematical models using supercomputers. Using AI with an expanded observation network could help generate higher-quality forecast data at lower cost. The department expects the AI-based climate models and advisories it is developing to help improve forecasts, K.S. Hosalikar, head of climate research and services at IMD, told Reuters. The weather office has used AI to generate public alerts regarding heatwaves and such diseases as malaria, Hosalikar said. It plans to increase weather observatories, providing data down to village level, potentially offering higher-resolution data for forecasts, he said. The government said on Thursday it wants to generate weather and climate forecasts by incorporating AI into traditional models, and has set up a centre to test the idea through workshops and conferences. "An AI model doesn't require the high cost involved in running a supercomputer - you can even run it out of a good quality desktop," said Saurabh Rathore, an assistant professor at Indian Institute of Technology-Delhi. Better data is also needed to make the most out of AI, experts say. "Without having high-resolution data in space and time, no AI model for location-specific magnification of existing model forecasts is feasible," said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Reporting by Kanjyik Ghosh; Editing by Shivam Patel and William Mallard