In Kashmir, It Is April In February As Cascading Cost Of Warmest Winter Worries Experts
An unusually hot February has alarmed Kashmir. On Saturday, mercury shot up to over 21 degrees Celsius, 10 notches above the average temperature, shattering the previous record high of 20.6 degrees set on February 24, 2016. The temperature being experienced nowadays is what Kashmir would witness in April, when spring would be in full bloom, while mornings and evenings would still carry a touch of wintry air. The atypical weather comes as the region grapples with a staggering over 55 per cent precipitation deficit during the peak winter. The spike is seen as an extraordinary deviation for late winter months as people started giving up pherans and woollens. "This heat is something unusual. We have stopped lighting hamaam or heaters. There is no requirement for these things as nights too are getting warmer," said 65-year-old Ali Mohammad of Srinagar. Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif described the surge as part of a broader and intensifying warm spell triggered by the lack of Western Disturbance that can usher wet spell in the region. "Kashmir is presently witnessing temperatures that are strikingly similar to what is normally recorded in mid-April," he said. Experts warn that sustained high temperatures following the precipitation deficit could spur early snowmelt in the higher reaches of the Himalayan region, raising fears of cascading impact on the environment. Climate scientist Prof Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo noted the Kashmir Valley has experienced a pronounced warming trend in the last five to six years. "Reduced snowfall and warmer spring temperatures are triggering earlier melting of seasonal snowpacks and glaciers, thereby disrupting the natural timing and availability of meltwater that sustains rivers, springs, and groundwater recharge systems. These changes are already contributing to declining snow accumulation, reduced streamflows and increasing water stress in many parts of Jammu and Kashmir,” he told ETV Bharat. The western rivers, including the Jhelum, Chenab and its tributaries, rely on snowpack accumulation. While rapid melting is expected to trigger a short-term rise in water levels, increasing the risk of flooding, it is expected to potentially trigger lower discharge during the summer, when farms need irrigation. If the pattern persists, Romshoo said, it could likely diminish long-term water availability and increase vulnerability to water shortages, threatening both ecological sustainability and adversely affecting various socio-economic sectors in the region. Irfan Rashid of the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, warns that streams and rivers may have more water in early spring but could experience reduced flows in spring and summer, when water demand peaks, affecting irrigated farming, especially rice cultivation, which is a staple food of the Valley. "Such extreme snow loss will expose glacier ice earlier to solar radiation, increasing ice melt, glacier thinning and long-term degradation," he said. "Warmer conditions may also trigger permafrost thaw across the Himalaya, which can destabilise mountain slopes and potentially lead to catastrophic mass movements." This was experienced in Chisoti mountains in J&K's Kishtwar and Dharali in Uttrakhand where large-scale devastation was caused by floods in 2025. In Kishtwar alone, 66 people were devoured by the floods caused by changing weather patterns. According to a report of Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down To Earth, extreme weather was recorded on 270 of the 273 days from January to September 2025, up from 255 in 2024. For the agriculture and horticulture sector, which is the mainstay of the region’s economy, the early heat has spurred worries among farmers. Fruits like apples depend on a prolonged cold spell to meet essential chilling requirements. "But warmer winters disrupt flowering cycles, increase pest activity and reduce yields," said an apple grower, Mohammad Abbas of Shopian. Likewise, tourism stakeholders also fear that early heat can shorten the winter sports season in destinations such as Gulmarg while also affecting the snow cover that draws visitors.
