From the archives | Air pollution: The new Capital punishment
The latest World Air Quality Report has again ranked Delhi as the most polluted city. Here’s why the pollution control measures kicked off in 2015 have fallen short Every great city has its great joys and its great sorrows. So, Delhi, a radial melting pot of cultures that has history at every corner, greenery on every sidewalk, and changes clothes and colours with the seasons, has been plagued with debilitating concerns over women's safety, and with something noxious, deleterious, downright nasty, in the air. According to multiple surveys in recent years by organisations ranging from the World Health Organization (WHO) to the University of Surrey, and from the University of California at Berkeley to the Indian Institutes of Technology in Delhi, Kanpur and Mumbai, the city is now the most polluted in the world. An inglorious, undisputed leader in a dishonour roll that features 13 Indian cities among the top 20. A Delhi resident is today exposed to an average of 153 micrograms per cubic metre of PM 2.5—the smallest and most harmful of all measurable particulate matter—which is 15 times higher than the WHO’s recommended annual average. And while this data may seem too obscure to raise alarm bells, and the effects of pollution too insidious to rattle the cage, disease and death is looming. Preying first on the most vulnerable—children, seniors, those with respiratory disorders—and slowly devouring even the most hardy. advertisement The stench of smoke, burning of the eyes, smoggy mornings, hazy nights are all symptoms of a deeper malaise. Doctors associate high levels of suspended particulate matter and sulphur dioxide with increased mortality, morbidity and impaired pulmonary function. They say that fine particulates penetrate the respiratory system, and can alter the immune system, impair the liver and the kidney, and cause brain damage in children resulting in lower IQ, hyperactivity and lower concentration. The rise in carbon monoxide levels affects the cardiovascular system, particularly among children, and can attack the nervous system. Two studies endorsed by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) in 2012 said that one in five adults and one in four children in Delhi suffered from upper respiratory diseases, and that these numbers were on an upward trend. There is no dispute any longer that drastic action is needed. In this winter of discontent when the ambient air quality is at its worst, emergency measures have suddenly become the order of the day as Delhi has emerged all of a sudden as a test case for pollution reforms that will have implications for cities such as Gwalior, Patna and Ahmedabad that are suffering from similar problems. The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government has announced a series of half-measures—but measures nonetheless—to kick-start the fight. It has been buttressed by the judiciary, which has radical ideas of its own. So while one group has decided to restrict Delhi’s private four-wheelers to even and odd registration plates on alternate days, a battle of one-upmanship has begun in which the other wants to restrict or phase out diesel vehicles altogether. Ignoring the hue and cry and the logistic nightmare both these plans throw up, the executive and the judiciary seem determined to finally bell the cat. While this is a good issue to be squabbling over, some key questions remain: what does the cat really look like, how did it become so menacing, is the bell loud enough, and are they trying to bell the wrong cat altogether? Perhaps the first step towards understanding Delhi’s particular pollution problem is to understand the city—its aspirations, and its design. Delhi is primarily a network of localities, or a conglomerate of villages, linked by roads that intersect, bifurcate and overlap, like spaghetti in a bowl. It’s a series of concentric circles with numerous entry and exit points, and has almost no dedicated commercial centre, and no clear housing pattern. advertisement It is as long as it is wide, unlike Mumbai which has changed gradually from a straight line along the sea to a narrow isosceles triangle. Its population is growing at an alarming rate, having nearly doubled from 10 million to 20 million in the last two decades. And new satellite towns such as Gurgaon and Noida, which now form an ominous National Capital Region because of seamless urban integration, are also as commercial as they are residential. CHECK THESE OUT More Delhi's air quality dips to emergency level first time since January Delhi's air quality dips to emergency level first time since January RECOMMENDED Scientists discover a new form of ice that can not exist on surface of Earth Scientists discover a new form of ice that can not exist on surface of Earth TRENDING Previous odd-even schemes failed to reduce air pollution in Delhi Previous odd-even schemes failed to reduce air pollution in Delhi RECOMMENDED Toxic Diwali aftermath: Delhi air quality dips to very poor; Kolkata, Mumbai breathe easy Toxic Diwali aftermath: Delhi air quality dips to very poor; Kolkata, Mumbai breathe easy RECOMMENDED Odd-even: Allowing private vehicles with school children, patients to be trust based: Arvind Kejriwal Odd-even: Allowing private vehicles with school children, patients to be trust based: Arvind Kejriwal RECOMMENDED Bengaluru to face power cuts on March 26 | Check full list of areas Bengaluru to face power cuts on March 26 | Check full list of areas RECOMMENDED Design Flaw It is, in other words, a landlocked cauldron of smoke, surrounded by an even smokier periphery, without the natural advantage of replenishing its air that coastal cities have. On top of that, it has an organic growth pattern that makes it arduous to provide a mass transit system that works for everyone because of a lack of clarity between where people live, and where they work. It is, as Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director-research and advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), puts it, “suffering from a design flaw”. And as Rahul Mehrotra, urban planner and professor of urban design and planning at the Harvard Graduate School of Design, describes it, “a victim of poor land-use planning”. It’s because of this haphazard structure that the greatest middle-class dream in Delhi is individual mobility, and the entire focus of its transport system has been to support private vehicles. To have made it in Delhi is to have wheels under you. The city, as a result, has a total of 8.8 million vehicles, and adds an average of 1,400 vehicles to its arsenal every month. This is more than the vehicles in Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata combined, though about 60 per cent of these are two-wheelers. advertisement Another problem is that Delhi’s growth, and that of many other big Indian cities, has been so rapid that infrastructure has not been able to keep pace. “Typically, in India, the introduction of mass public transport is a rearguard action,” says the ever-cogent Mehrotra, “as opposed to avant garde action.” This is different from many other global cities where public transport, coupled with cheaper housing incentives, opened up newer, better-connected hinterlands. Infrastructure in Delhi has always tried to play catch-up with urbanisation rather than lead it. These factors make Delhi’s public transport system both more uncomfortable to use and more inefficient when compared with private vehicles. This double whammy is a crucial distinction, for there is no respite on either front—saving time or saving stress—for a majority of Delhi’s commuters who rely on public transport. In Mumbai, for example, if going from Andheri to Churchgate takes 45 minutes by train, it can take up to two hours by car. So,while a car may be more “luxurious”, it robs you of time. In Delhi, if going from South Delhi to Noida takes 40 minutes by car, it takes 90 minutes by train, including getting to and from the station. So public transport is not only more uncomfortable, it also wastes time. This is primarily why anyone who can afford to buy a private vehicle jumps at the idea in Delhi, as opposed to Mumbai, or other well-connected cities in the world, where vehicles are meant for family outings or weekend recreation. And this is why the AAP’s even-odd solution between January 1 and January 15 is likely to fail. For, while pollution is clearly important enough to override personal comfort, relying on the goodness of the people to embrace a more inefficient system for the “greater good” may be wishful thinking. Add to that the lack of capacity—according to Sarath Guttikunda of the advocacy site urbanemissions.info, it would take 13,000 new buses to take the additional load while the government has managed to arrange for only 6,000 extra buses so far—and this plan has all the makings of another urban bungle. The implications could be potentially disastrous for the larger cause because a hasty rollback due to improper implementation may potentially harm the fight against pollution rather than helping it. Not dissimilar to how the failure of the ambitious Bus Rapid Transit lanes created by the previous Sheila Dikshit government had ended up militating against the push for a more efficient bus service. Evenly Odd What dilutes the even-odd formula, unless it’s used only as an emergency measure for limited time and with minimal exemptions, is that the numbers simply don’t add up. As Guttikunda explains, vehicular pollution depends on three principal factors—number of vehicles on the road, the distance each vehicle runs, and the emissions from each vehicle. So if 4.4 million of the 8.8 million vehicles in Delhi go off the roads because of the even-odd formula, the assumption is that it would lead to a 50 per cent reduction in vehicular emissions. But there is more to this than a simple division. Once you take into account the various exemptions that the AAP government is planning—for two-wheelers because they form one of the party’s principal constituencies, for women drivers because of safety concerns, and for patients and emergency vehicles such as ambulances and police vans—an estimated 2.5 million vehicles come back on the road, leading to a total reduction of just 2 million. Also, it has been noticed that wherever the even-odd formula has been applied—Mexico City and Bogota are examples—the run of each vehicle increases because it begins to make several rounds to cater to different members of a family. Even if a vehicle’s run increases by an average of 25 per cent, it brings emissions worth an additional 1.5 million vehicles back on the road, thus taking the grand total of reductions to a mere 500,000. Although there are some short-term advantages—fewer exhaust fumes in your immediate vicinity, and lower NO2 and particulate matter—it’s too much trouble for not enough gain. Only if conducted without exemptions for a short period of time—so that people do not buy newer cars or change registration numbers in multiple-vehicle homes—can the even-odd formula be somewhat successful. “We’re not in favour of any exemptions, other than for emergency vehicles,” says CSE’s Roychowdhury, who has met with the Delhi government to help iron out their even-odd formula and other strategies to combat pollution. Vehicular emissions, in any case, roughly account for 25 per cent of Delhi’s pollution, with construction activity and dust the main culprits. Diesel generator sets in homes and offices that spew pollutants through an unrefined motor in a bid to cover for poor power supply, industrial dumping and waste burning also add huge chunks to the pollution pie-chart. But this attempt by the AAP government is still being hailed as ground-breaking by experts, including Roychowdhury, with good reason. It is the first time that any restrictions are being placed on private vehicles in a country where car owners are in the habit of being pampered with a one-time all-India road tax, free parking in homes, cheap parking in markets, and no congestion charges. The move is an acknowledgement that the time to impose checks on vehicles has come, as other cities do across the world, and could serve as a precursor to making owning, maintaining, driving and parking a fleet of private vehicles more expensive and problematic than it currently is. An infinitely more efficient solution for vehicular pollution would be to implement Euro 6 emission norms for automobiles in India because that would bring down particulate matter emission by five times per vehicle over the Euro 4 norms that Delhi currently follows. This can be achieved by persuading oil companies to up their standards, without necessarily having to discard older cars immediately since a Euro 4 vehicle can run on Euro 6 fuels. The Delhi government is also promising to restrict the number of trucks entering the city, shutting coal-based power plants in Rajghat and Badarpur, enforcing the ban on trash burning, and penalising construction violators. But implementing these measures won’t be easy, especially since they will have to rely on the Delhi Police, which is not under the AAP government’s control and has, in fact, been openly inimical towards it. Even controlling the flow of trucks into the city, many of which use sub-standard or mixed fuels, will be a hard cross to bear despite the Supreme Court’s ‘green tax’ that attempts to discourage them from using Delhi as a thoroughfare. The court, on December 16, passed another order that banned the entry of trucks manufactured before 2005 from entering the city, and closing the entry points at NH1 and NH8 for trucks not bound for Delhi. A recent study by the CSE suggests that a total of 115,000 light commercial and heavy trucks enter Delhi every day. The court also stopped the registration of all luxury diesel vehicles larger than 2,000cc, such as luxury SUVs and MUVs, until March. This decision will have huge implications for the auto industry. “Air pollution needs to be tackled at the policy level first,” says Guttikunda. “One-off measures that place the burden on the consumers won’t have wide-reaching impacts.” The solutions he suggests are cleaner fuels; more reliable power supply, which will cut down diesel generator set use; picking up waste because it has the potential to be burned; dust- and pothole-free roads; and improving services that encourage walking and cycling. The important thing is the simultaneity of such measures, making the fight against pollution a crusade instead of piecemeal campaigns against individual contaminants. The Way Out Strange as it may sound, India’s pollution conundrum is not too different from what the US had experienced between the 1940s and the 1970s. It was a time when southern California and the East Coast were both routinely engulfed by smog. On July 26, 1943, in the middle of the Second World War, the smog in Los Angeles was so severe that residents thought the Japanese had attacked using chemical warfare. Another significant incident of all was the Donora Smog in Pennsylvania in 1948. It claimed 20 human and 800 animal lives, and could have consumed thousands of others had the thick wall of smoke not been cleared by unexpected rain after four days. It prompted the beginning of a long fight against air pollution that eventually led to the US Clean Air Act of 1970 and to the creation of a strong United States Environmental Protection Agency, which was given the power to develop and enforce regulations to protect the general public from exposure to airborne contaminants. One of the major problems in India is that while central agencies have been tasked with monitoring pollution, they don't have a mandate to control it. The US Clean Air Act, for example, made it mandatory to develop ways to ensure better air quality across the country without any cost restraints. In India, the CPCB doesn’t have strong enforcement powers. It relies on the government or the courts to take the lead-as the Supreme Court did in 2001 by ordering that all public transport in Delhi must switch to CNG, dramatically improving air quality. But the lack of other reforms, and the sheer volume of vehicles coupled with a terrible central policy that encouraged the rampant production, sale and purchase of diesel vehicles, reversed the trend in 2007. Over the last year, the CPCB has started taking its monitoring role more seriously by setting up a real-time system to measure Air Quality Index (AQI) across eight pollutants in 11 cities. The aim is to make AQIs available for 22 state capitals and 44 other cities with a population exceeding one million. But it’s too little, too late. In all of Delhi’s seven monitoring centres, AQI readings have routinely breached 300 this December—anything above that is considered hazardous—and crossed 600 regularly at Anand Vihar in east Delhi. The solution, suggests Rahul Mehrotra, is to think macro. “Delhi needs imaginative inter-modal transport systems that link buses with metros, and taxis and autos with buses. You shouldn’t lose time and you shouldn’t have to walk more than a few metres to get to your next ride,” he says. Next, he asks for a transport system that is mindful of the relationship between where people live and where they work. “Land-use planning and transportation must go hand in hand. In fact, it should be the only parameter.” And finally, using public transport to develop the city by offering cheap housing near new mass transit systems. It’s important for Delhi that this season of heightened awareness portends holistic changes; that it isn’t an example of intense fire-fighting, only to be forgotten once short-term solutions provide meagre gains. The era of ignorant optimism is over. So, roll over P.B. Shelley and welcome to the grim new world of George R.R. Martin: Winter is coming; Spring may indeed be far behind.