Towards a New Green World | Agriculture and forest commodities

November 07, 2025

This is the first paper in a series of three by CSE addressing questions of trade and development for the Global South in the new green economy, titled Towards a New Green World.

This paper explores the foundation of many developing economies: primary commodity exports from the agriculture and forestry sectors. Over two-thirds of developing countries, and more than 80 per cent of least developed countries, remain commodity-dependent. In agriculture, this dependence often manifests as a reliance on a handful of raw exports—coffee, cocoa, timber, or cotton—that dominate export revenues yet yield minimal returns to farmers.

The paper highlights how price volatility and climate shocks exacerbate this dependence. Countries such as Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over half the world’s cocoa beans, capture barely six per cent of global revenue from value-added cocoa products. Meanwhile, global value accrues to processors and retailers in Europe. Similarly, coffee-producing nations remain vulnerable to climate-induced yield fluctuations, while profits are concentrated in the roasting and retail stages of the value chain.

By examining case studies—Vietnam’s shift to processed wood exports, Colombia’s coffee cooperatives, China’s timber industry, and Uganda’s textile policy—the paper demonstrates that value addition and diversification are possible when industrial policy, and state support align. It concludes that horizontal diversification (expanding export bases beyond primary goods) and vertical diversification (moving up value chains) are both essential for structural transformation. To sustain this, the paper calls for climate-smart agriculture, fair technology transfer, and regional trade cooperation to help countries escape the low-value commodity trap.

Contact: 

Rudrath Avinashi 
rudrath.avinashi@cseindia.org