Towards a New Green World | Critical minerals

November 07, 2025

This is the second paper in a series by CSE addressing questions of climate, trade and development for the Global South in the new green economy, titled Towards a New Green World.

Focusing on critical minerals essential to decarbonization, especially copper, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements, the paper shows a familiar pattern: many developing countries possess reserves and carry out extraction, but most of the value is captured elsewhere in refining and manufacturing. 

This imbalance is apparent in global trade, for instance, Chile leads raw copper exports but far less of processed copper; Indonesia dominates raw nickel exports while China captures a large share of processed nickel export revenues; and China’s grip on processing is especially stark for rare earths (and significant across multiple minerals). 

This model also keeps mineral exporters exposed to volatile price cycles and macroeconomic instability, rather than building economic resilience. 

Against this backdrop, the paper maps efforts to loosen China’s stronghold, through initiatives like the US-led Mineral Security Partnership and the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, while also highlighting emerging South–South efforts (from lithium cooperation in Latin America to battery-value-chain ambitions in Africa).

Through a comparative SWOT analysis of the DRC, Indonesia and Chile, it illustrates that moving up the value chain is possible, but that different national circumstances need to be acknowledged. This is possible only when industrial policy, technology access, capital, and governance align. Moreover, this needs to happen without reproducing the social and ecological harms of old extractive frameworks. 

The paper offers a set of principles for a more equitable critical minerals economy, emphasizing sufficiency (not just efficiency), recycling and circularity, regional cooperation, and diversification beyond raw exports so that the countries at the core of the value chains can also ensure their own structural transformation.

Contact: 

Sehr Raheja
sehr.raheja@cseindia.org