Pledge Under Pressure

May 03, 2026

This report examines the climate commitments of African nations under the Paris Agreement, scrutinizing whether their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) reflect genuine ambition or face structural limitations. It profiles seven nations—Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, Zambia, Ethiopia and Nigeria—analysing their emissions baselines, mitigation targets and heavy dependence on international climate finance. It identifies critical gaps, including poor data integrity, weak emissions inventorization, and a problematic reliance on hydropower.

Key findings reveal that many countries claim future high emissions trajectories without quantitative pathways to justify them, while the Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) sector remains largely invisible in national accounting despite being a major emissions driver. Data volatility and continued use of default emission factors further distort emissions trajectories, undermining the credibility of pledged reductions.
The report concludes with actionable recommendations to strengthen NDC credibility.

Download the full report to understand how African countries are shaping their climate commitments and what is needed to strengthen the credibility and effectiveness of their NDCs.